On The Theory Of The "Sleeping Electorate"

From ONW's Susanna Kelly:

Most people take two, perhaps three weeks vacation a year.

That means that for all the other summer weeks, they're back at work, starting the day as usual by listening to newscasts in their car during commutes, spending lots of time on their computers and Internet-rigged up (CHANGE) devices and chatting around the water cooler - just like they do the rest of the year.

On top of that, even if they are at the cottage, many of those same cottages have now been equipped with the Internet.

And there are fewer and fewer people who live in rural Canada, making their living by working the soil in relative isolation.

So the idea that many people haven't heard of, or heard much of, the Duffy trial is pretty unlikely.

It was the lead story on Internet, television and radio newscasts as well as on newspapers' front pages for many days.

And even if, as is the case with many in the electorate, they only remember the headlines, those very headlines have been very damaging.

I'm about half-ready to buy this.  Today's Forum poll suggest's that the Duffy trial has had a major negative effect on CPC numbers, though these are supposed to be the dog days.  But of course that's only Forum.  There will, however, be an EKOS poll tomorrow and Frank Graves is hinting at some pretty interesting results:

@Mikercorcoran @coreydahl nope. And some real movement. Duffy definitely registering.

— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) August 26, 2015

So there you have it.

Robert Jago Soldiers On

I think Robert and I were the first two bloggers in Canadian history to force a candidate to step down for things they'd said  on the Internet.  But in '08 Robert only scored one Green (for anti-Semitic comments, I think); whereas I nailed a Tory, a Dipper, and a Tory campaign official.  That's why I've got part of an exhibit devoted to me in the Museum of Civilization and Robert doesn't.

As usual, the Yankees were ahead of us by a decade.  In 1996 one of Bob Dole's campaign staffers had to step down when he and his wife were found to have participated in a listserv for swingers, if I remember it correctly.  Anyway, I've not got time to put the detective work in these days, but Jago is still at it.  He's greased one or two Tories already this cycle, and is promising that there's more to come.

 This is his latest.  Keep an eye on his blog.   By the end of election 2015, someone might owe Robert a Senate appointment.

Coming To An Attack Near You

To go with this.  Not a good day for the CPC campaign.

Not A Communist: Tom & Maggie

Actually this doesn't look bad on him.  Equivalent to finding out that Harper once played drums in a Hendrix cover band (he didn't).  Not sure there was any reason for the campaign to even formally address a clip that old unless they figured it worked in their favor.  And it does; if Tom secretly dug Thatcher  he can't be that bad, some might think. I imagine any real problem will come from the party base.  Mulcair has the delicate task of convincing the nation that the NDP's not  communist anymore while assuring the faithful that it still is.

The Union Pearson Express (UPX)

Have no fear, #Toronto. There are plenty of open seats available on my #UPX train to Pearson Airport. #onpoli #topoli pic.twitter.com/Fruam7LjaQ

— Mark McQueen (@markrmcqueen) August 18, 2015

$27 per trip.  Who knows how many $1,000,000s  to build.  

This means, officially, that every transit line they've built in this town since 1986 when I moved here has been a boondoggle.

(Mind you, maybe its packed during the rush-hour.  But I doubt it.)

Leger Poll Puts Tories in 3rd

The NDP has 33 percent of the vote, up one point since last month, while the Conservatives are polling at 27 percent, down five points, the Leger research group said.

The Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, the son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, are polling in second with 28 percent of the vote, up three points.

Leger is a solid pollster, though I don't think they work the ROC very often.  Anyway, they confirm one thing that everyone knows; Justin helped himself in the first debate.  You can also infer that the Duffy Trial is beginning to take its toll on CPC numbers.  Sure nobody but the poli-nerds are paying attention, but its kind of like an ugly buzz in the air that you hear whenever the news comes on, whether you're listening or not.

Gruending On Rinks

Because I haven't been writing much lately, yet still like to keep a hand in, here's Dennis Gruending with a nice piece on subsidizing sports teams:

The National Hockey League’s Ottawa Senators want to abandon the club’s 20-year-old arena in the suburb of Kanata and rebuild near the city's downtown. Although the team says that fans don’t want to travel to the edge of town to watch their team, the arena actually draws an average of 96 percent of its capacity for home games. Still, the club's president, Cyril Leeder, says that the Senators would need support from the city before proceeding with their plan. Almost certainly, that's coded language foreshadowing a request for tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars in public money to build an arena. There, millionaire players employed by multi-millionaire owners would play before people who can afford to pay $7,700 for a season’s ticket in a good seat. 

Indeed.

1st Debate: So How'd They Do?

Justin Trudeau Our guy did good.  Articulate.  Didn't stumble (though I missed his closing remarks, which I hear weren't so great).  Scored points in the one-on-ones, got off a few good lines:  "And then they were 9.  And so shall that number be 9." and etc.

Stephen Harper  Played defense all night, for the most part well.  Some shots got through on the economy; he admitted we're on the verge of a recession.  And he stumbled re the issue of all of his Senate appointments who are prison bound.  He was weirdly articulate on environmental issues & pipelines, displaying detailed knowledge re Alberta's carbon pricing system.  So, perhaps, a weak point well covered.  Not that I liked his answers on these questions, just that they were relatively well delivered.

Elizabeth May Did well, although at times to me she sounded like she had stumbled in from a wonkfest.  She actually forgave Harper for some of his past-policies.  But if I was in the "throw them all out and vote Green" mood and I stumbled onto the debate and watched her, I would be favorably impressed.

Tom Mulcair had weird body language issues.  I don't think he blinked once the whole debate, and he tried so hard to avoid the "Angry Tom" persona that he wound up sounding sedated.  He took a few hits from Trudeau on Que. Separatism and the SCC (Trudeau's "And Lo!  Nine Judges appeared in the East" line), but later on spoke forcefully (although still in an oddly subdued tone) on the Senate.

The Debate Format Nobody expects CDN political debates to be exciting, but this one was probably as entertaining as it was possible to make it.  The format forced interaction between the candidates, which I think actually worked against Stephen Harper.  He appeared diminished.  A mere mortal among mortals.

Pre-Debate Good News Poll, And That Thing With The Tits

Albeit from a company I've never heard of (or not heard much of):

@RJMcClelland Never heard of those guys.

— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) August 6, 2015

@Bigcitylib2 They don't poll very often but have been around for at least a few years

— Robert McClelland (@RJMcClelland) August 6, 2015

Might write more about the Trudeau boobs thing later or not.  My first response is this:

@a_picazo Good argument for progressive pols to avoid pride parades, if you ask me. #cdnpoli

— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) August 6, 2015

Are pride parades safe for LPC candidates anymore or have they been taken over by the NDP?  If so I'd say skip 'em.  Stay away from them queers.

PS. I may tweet the debate tonight, or not.  I may go out and eat chicken wings with my wife and watch old UFC clips on Sportsnet 5.  It doesn't matter.  Its boring and the after-analysis is all about bubble-dwellers trying to guess what folks outside the bubble are thinking, when for the most part they are thinking about the baseball game.