Iggy's Campaign Appears Doomed

Iggy's team has been running a pure Momentum Campaign.

He is the New Trudeau, they say, though his speaking style often seems flat. He is drop-dead gorgeous, they say, although in public he often seems a bit squinty and there are rumors aswirl with respect to the state of his personal hygiene. He is leading the Liberals to a policy Nirvana, they say, although his policies as stated often seem insane (Whoopi! Let's go into Iraq!), disastrous (Whoopi! let's reopen the Constitutional debate!), or tortured (his position on Torture). But most importantly, they say, he is going to WIN, so you (lowly Liberal rank-&-filers) might as well support him. You WILL be assimilated, and the only question is, when you are, will you be sitting next to Iggy on his Throne, or next to the John?

But the problem with a Momentum campaign is, you occasionally need to demonstrate evidence of Momentum. In this case, this demonstration will come in the form of first ballot support at the December Convention, as this is pre-figured by this weekend's "super weekend" delegate selection count. And the bar for Iggy has been set: Party insiders have estimated that Ignatieff will need at least 35 per cent on the first ballot to avoid being overtaken.

However, with the Liberal Party Super Weekend Delegate Election Results Ticker showing over half of the meetings having reported, it is clear that Iggy (with 30.8% of the delegates so far elected) will come up a few points short of the glorious victory he needs to keep his Juggernaut on the rails.

And so here is my prediction for December. After the first ballot is over and Iggy is stuck with his 30%, it will seem as though he has been swarmed by a gang of rabid midgets. His long, slight frame will disappear into a crowd of black suits, and eventually Joe Volpe will appear, brandishing his head on a stick.

Meanwhile, after three, or four, or five rounds of balloting...someone will emerge as our next Liberal Leader.

And the nation shall be saved.