OTTAWA – Another national poll suggests the Conservatives and the Liberals remain locked in a dead heat with little sign of momentum. The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey had support for both the major federal parties flatlining at 32 per cent.
A number of writers, including Paul Wells today, seem to be implying that some of these polls are over-estimating Liberal support. On the other hand, plenty of bad news in this new poll from Calgary TV, the CPoC party organ.
Now that the by elections are past, however, the Libs should be able to take a more aggressive stance in the HOC. Might not do them any good, though, due to the crap nature of the NDP's support last night (which Wells also discusses).
Because it has been my secret belief that the NDP doesn't want an election at the moment either, but have been able to hide behind the Libs due to the latter's sad state for the last few months. Now that this sad state has been rectified, I wouldn't be surprised to see Layton's troops figuring out creative ways of chickening out.
Don't expect an election call any time soon, in other words.
Ignore the actual results of the last two by-elections,
ReplyDeleteand yeah, those other polls consistent with liberal support dropping since '06.
Tradditional Libs may be saying "yeah sure I'm liberal" in a phone poll, but they're not going out and voting.
Internals gauge voter intent rather than just general inclination.
The internals showed exactly what happened in Quadra- a significant Liberal drop in actual support.
Paul Wells' analysis of when the next election will occur, October 2009 seems dead on to me.
ReplyDeleteNeither the Liberals, the Bloc or the NDP are anxious to test the waters. They'll all be playing a bit of chicken but thus far it does seem like Dion has painted himself in a corner and the other parties are banking on continued timidness on his part. I agree BCL that both the NDP and the Bloc have been hiding behind the Liberal's reluctance.
If either the Bloc or the NDP miscalcute though we could have an unplanned election.
Good evening,
ReplyDeleteI am pleased, very pleased at last night's election results. It augurs very well for a strong conservative tide across our home and native land. One trend that is causing much mirth and merriment in the quarters I frequent is the advent of yet another vehicle of leftist cant in the political fray, the Green Party. We now have three leftist parties fighting for the same turf, four in Quebec with Chairman Duceppe.
The Liberals used to have one foot on the left and one in the center but Stephane Dion has the party with both feet on the left, ensuring further crowding on the left of the spectum. Mr. Dion's political acumen is of course, legendary, and his political moves invariably are a cause of wide-eyed amazement.
Elizabeth May often says such nasty and needless things about Mr. Harper. He should respond with equanimity and kindness. She came ever so close in helping elect a Conservative MP in Vancouver-Quadra yesterday and no doubt will be assisting in the election of many Conservative MP's in the upcoming election. Thank you Elizabeth, thank you Stephane. Keep fighting for that shrinking market share Jack, yours is the original brand and don't let people forget it.
Enough already flogging these silly polls as if they mean anything. Here's the Strategic Council one from Mar.17.
ReplyDeleteConservatives: 38 per cent (-1)
Liberals: 27 per cent (same)
NDP: 14 per cent (+2)
Green Party: 12 per cent (same)
Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (same
It's likely no more accurate or predictive than the Decima poll. Morons use polls the same way drunks use lampposts.
What it really means is that our mental health system has failed those people who would still vote Liberal.
ReplyDeleteDeadlocked? Not even close . . .
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ReplyDelete