I used to believe this. Now I am not so sure. Nevertheless the Obama campaign better stash their guy's halo and get digging, if a new U.S.A. Today Poll is to be believed:
Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.
There's a thing down in the States called The Bradley/Wilder Effect, where black candidates significantly underperform their polling numbers when it actually comes time for voters, esp. white voters, to cast a ballot. Will it take a few points off Obama's totals on election night, so that even if he is up a couple of points in the nationals he might eventually lose to McCain? Hard to say, as the effect seems to have waved over the years.
However, the GOP is doomed in the House and will lose ground in the Senate. Therefore, it will be very easy for a disgruntled Republican/Indy voters to send a message by casting a split ballot--kicking the bums out in the two houses, but keeping a Republican in The White House. Especially if they don't want to vote for a black but won't admit as much to the pollsters.
And Americans have voted this pattern in the past. The1972, 1984, and 1988 elections saw Republicans send one of their own to the White House while the party lost ground in Congress.
This has nothing ot do with the Bradley Wilder efffect. Read Gallup's analysis of the LV model. For a few months democrats have been over polling Republicans as likely voters. This is highly unusual, and is attributed to the contested and protracted nomination through all 50 states.
ReplyDeleteThe likely voter models are simply falling back to normal where Republicans outnumber Demcrats as likely voters.
On the same day this poll was released, BCL, Gallup's very own daily tracking poll had Obama up by 8, Rasmussen had him up by 3, and Research 2000 had him up by 12, on the same day that poll was released.
ReplyDeleteColour me a tad sceptical of that 1 poll, which even Gallup's own boss said might be just "statistical noise" in trying to explain why his own companies individual poll and this one that was co-sponsored by USA Today is way different from each other.
Scott, I agree that's quite possible. However, I would suggest there are many Dems starting to worry that their guy is ONLY up by single digits (RCP av. of polls says about 3), esp. since McCain has been awful. I think that has gotta be because they think a couple of points are going to evaporate on election night.
ReplyDeleteNational polls are a bit misleading anyhow, BCL. If you look at sites that track state polling and by extension the electoral vote count that each has if those state polls hold up.. Obama is winning decisively in the electoral vote count. I've seen a Republican site for example that has him currently winning 338 - 200, and that's with popular vote only separating the 2 by 4-5%.. so it's a bit misleading when you say he's "only" up by 3 or 4.
ReplyDeleteThere's a good discussion of this poll at 538.com. Shorter version: it's numbers aren't internally consistent.
ReplyDeleteI will give the edge to McCain. Obama has a lot of young people supporting him. Unfortunately, older white men are more likely to vote than young black women. An older person is more likely to vote than a younger person. A white person is more likely to vote than someone who is black. I man is more likely to voter than a woman. Obama will need 53% if the poll support just to get a bare majority of the votes and hopefully a majority of the electoral college votes. If McCain gets 53% of the polling support, he will probably get 56% of the vote. The young, blacks, and women need to vote.
ReplyDeleteHmm..do you think if Stephi lost the glasses and got a good tan?
ReplyDelete"Charisma without substance is a dangerous combination"
ReplyDeleteSums up BO. The man is an empty suit who has one redeeming quality - he really, really knows how to perform in front of a camera and deliver a teleprompted speech.
Get him one on one and he is a stumbling, stuttering vacuous, self-important wannbe.
The press hasn't turned on him yet because they are afraid of being branded as racist. But the Pack is itchy and one of them will start the attack . . . there are there months left
Get him one on one and he is a stumbling, stuttering vacuous, self-important wannbe.
ReplyDeleteUnlike the paragon of erudition and scintillating conversation you must obviously be?
Just kidding. You don't even have the stones to say out loud the ignorant tripe you spew here. You're just some under-educated wingnut screaming into the void from the safety of your cubicle.
Obama's disadvantages have nothing to do with him being black. He's a piece of fluff, that's all. And everybody can see that. At least, those who aren't hypnotised by his hope & change smoke & mirrors.
ReplyDeleteWhen has he actually said ANYthing of substance?
You need a different nickname Auntie Liberal.. because you're certainly not one.
ReplyDeleteWhen has Obama said anything of substance? How about all of last year. If you bothered to read, you'd see he's done a lot of policy wonk type speeches.
Go to his website.. he has policies and positions on issues very detailed and laid out for what he wants to do.
Skinny Dipper: I disagree with your analysis. Go to www.electoral-vote.com, electionprojection.com, Pollster.com, or FiveThirtyEight.com - even with the national polls "close", Obama is winning decisively in the electoral college - because he leads in enough states to give him that advantage.
Ditch Blogger commenting already. It's just the same damn ignorant sock-puppets over and over again.
ReplyDeleteTI-Guy:
ReplyDeleteI've recommended to BCL before to go to Haloscan.. it would let him ban repeat troll IP's from leaving comments. That's up to him though ;)
Scott, you recommended Haloscan about a week before it went kerflooey. Has it got any better lately (and, if I don't like it and switch back, do I lose all comments?)?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteHaloscan and Blogger are simply manifestations of the old adage: You pay for what you get.
ReplyDeleteScott, Gallups daily tracking poll does not sceen for LV. The swing is consistent with a RV/LV in other polls. See pollster.com for complete discussion.
ReplyDeleteDemocrats just aren't as likely to vote or answer the screen question, "YES I am going to vote".