As whomped up by some guy on the Blogging Tories forum and not checked by me. But in line with other estimates I've re the performance of a merged NDP/Liberal political entity. I've bolded the caveats.
Using Elections Data from the last elections and my rudimentary Excel skills, it seems like even a merged Liberal/NDP entity, running a single slate of candidates, cannot get to a majority, although a Liberal+NDP+Green combination potentially could.
The usual caveats apply, namely a 1:1 transfer of votes from the legacy parties to the merged party and no changes in voter turnout.
HoC seat distribution as of June 2010: Conservatives = 144, Liberals = 77, NDP = 36, Bloc = 48, Ind = 2, Vacant = 1.
EDAs where Liberal+NDP+Green vote >55% = 135
EDAs where Liberal+NDP vote >55% = 97
EDAs where Liberal+NDP+Green vote >50% = 166
EDAs where Liberal+NDP vote >50% = 129
Potential Liberal+NDP+Green Wins = 62
Potential Liberal+NDP Wins = 39
Drop the first caveat, and the merged entity performs even worse. Who knows how much of the Green Party vote would swing Tory?
strategic voting does not work, no studies exist provide success.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.punditsguide.ca/2008/09/think-twice-about-voting-strategically.php
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