The honeymoon may be over, but they still have a majority in the HOC, and one soft poll this early in their term won't do a thing to impede whatever legislative action they choose to take. Excuse me for not cheering.
Plus it's a media-sponsored poll and, historically, media-sponsored polls have been the least reliable.
You can get an idea of just how useless media-sponsored polls are by looking back to the poll Nanos did for Globe/CTV and released 8 days before the last election: Conservatives 38.6, Liberals 25.9 and NDP 23.2.
In other words, this poll is literally meaningless. A random number generator would be as reliable an indicator of where the electorate is.
You can get an idea of just how useless media-sponsored polls are by looking back to the poll Nanos did for Globe/CTV and released 8 days before the last election: Conservatives 38.6, Liberals 25.9 and NDP 23.2.
That was a week before the election. A lot of the movement occured around the last week, especially around the penultimate weekend before the vote, which was when the Nanos poll was released. Add to the fact that Nanos has a three day rolling average may have helped buffer the drop, which may have occured in the last day.
The exact numbers may not be of any interest unless movement is shown within the margin of error. The margin for the poll is 2.8%. Movement for all the parties is greater than the margin. The poll is probably more meaningful than toss bones, but as Big noted, this isn't going to change anything. It's four years to the next election. Most majority governments know it's best to get their crap legislation in early and let a few years for the sting to fade.
Plus it's a media-sponsored poll and, historically, media-sponsored polls have been the least reliable.
ReplyDeleteYou can get an idea of just how useless media-sponsored polls are by looking back to the poll Nanos did for Globe/CTV and released 8 days before the last election: Conservatives 38.6, Liberals 25.9 and NDP 23.2.
In other words, this poll is literally meaningless. A random number generator would be as reliable an indicator of where the electorate is.
You can get an idea of just how useless media-sponsored polls are by looking back to the poll Nanos did for Globe/CTV and released 8 days before the last election: Conservatives 38.6, Liberals 25.9 and NDP 23.2.
ReplyDeleteThat was a week before the election. A lot of the movement occured around the last week, especially around the penultimate weekend before the vote, which was when the Nanos poll was released. Add to the fact that Nanos has a three day rolling average may have helped buffer the drop, which may have occured in the last day.
The exact numbers may not be of any interest unless movement is shown within the margin of error. The margin for the poll is 2.8%. Movement for all the parties is greater than the margin. The poll is probably more meaningful than toss bones, but as Big noted, this isn't going to change anything. It's four years to the next election. Most majority governments know it's best to get their crap legislation in early and let a few years for the sting to fade.