Dear BigCityLib: I am a senior fellow of the Hudson Institute, and proud of my association with Heartland. I continue to agree with Heartland that man-made warming is a tiny element of the planet’s warming since the Maunder Minimum ended about 1715. (The warming from 1915-1940 was as rapid and lasted about as long as the 1976-1998 warming, but came too soon to be blamed on CO2.) The real warming factor is the 1,500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, whose centuries-long “little ice ages” collapsed most human cultures before 1850 AD (after short periods of success during the global warming phases of the cycle). That’s why our cultures have lasted only about 500 years, on average. It’s not due to some lurking flaw in our psyches, but to inadequate farming and terribly unstable “little ice age” weather.
The earth’s hundreds of previous global warmings have been the good times for humans and other life forms, and this will continue to be true. The appropriate policy today is to produce still more fertilizer and still-higher crop yields, so we can feed a projected peak population of 8.1 billion people in 2050 without displacing more wildlife. (By 2300, the UN’s Low Variant Projection says human numbers will have declined to 2.3 billion, due to the low birth rates that accord with low death rates. Your frantic fear of “overpopulation” will by then have faded into the mists.)
Relying on solar and wind would achieve the Greenpeace goal of fewer people, but through ghastly hardships (Would that qualify as mass murder on a far grander scale than the Unabomber?) Nor would this “save the planet.” Hungry people eat the wildlife before they starve.
Do not destroy our vital energy systems: I think the billboard was an effective way to carry this message beyond the current “skeptic” ranks It certainly attracted attention to the question. I continue to be amazed at the “religious” belief of BigCityLiberals in a theory which has been betrayed by 1) the existence of the D-O cycle which has been known now for 28 years and won for Dansgaard and Oeschger the “environmental Nobel,” the Tyler Prize; 2) the non-warming of the past 15 years, which defies the Greenhouse Theory; 3) the falsification of the global climate models’ predictions; 4) the continuing expansion of snow and ice in the Antarctic; and 5) the historical pattern of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which tells us that the current global cooling is likely to last decades more and will thus destroy the man-made warming campaign.
May I publish your decision to renounce the man-made warming campaign and help to reduce the anguish which this well-meant but misguided effort has inflicted on the general public?
Dennis Avery
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And here's my original email to Mr. Avery:
Dear Mr. Avery,
I am wondering if you are aware
1) that you are listed as a "Heartland Institute Expert"
http://heartland.org/dennis-avery
...and 2) that Heartland recently ran a billboard campaign comparing AGW believers to mass murderers (in particular to the Unabomber)
1) that you are listed as a "Heartland Institute Expert"
http://heartland.org/dennis-avery
...and 2) that Heartland recently ran a billboard campaign comparing AGW believers to mass murderers (in particular to the Unabomber)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/may/04/heartland-institute-global-warming-murder?newsfeed=true
A number of scientists have asked that they be removed from the HI list of experts because of this billboard campaign, and a number of sponsors have withdrawn their funding. I wonder if you will continue to be associated with them?
And may I publish any response here:
http://bigcitylib.blogspot.ca/
M.J.Murphy
BCL
I wonder - did "the Unabomber" ever say he believed in global warming?
ReplyDeleteThat Avery reply really needs a good response - good luck. Did you see Gavin's beautiful smackdown of Steve McIntyre?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/05/yamalian-yawns/
Good luck with this one, BCL. His other interests include crusading against organic farming.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Dennis_Avery
Good job! Get these folks on record.
ReplyDeleteOf course, given that Avery has been Singer's co-author, I am unsurprised :-)
Mr. Avery is mistaken about the cost of wind power. The Michigan Public Service Commission recently reported to the state legislature that the cost of electricity from new wind farms has fallen well below the cost of electricity from new coal-fired power plants. And that's without considering the high environmental costs of coal and other fossil fuels, which are not reflected in their market prices. A 2008 study from the George W. Bush Administration found that the extra cost of obtaining 20% of U.S. electricity from wind by 2030 would be about 50 cents per household per month.--Tom Gray, Wind Energy Communications Consultant
ReplyDeleteMr Avery's remarks make one fear pellegra has returned to ravish the brains of failed agronomists in America's heartland
ReplyDeleteFar from being cyclic as he suggests ,the parallel rise in the temperature of Earth and Mars militates for Dr. Singer's theory that Phobos and Diemos are satellites installed by an alien civilization.
It is astonishing no billboards have appeared in support of Singer's hypothesis. Perhaps his friend and Heartland Fellow Larry Bell will give it an honorable mention in his Forbes column.
Russell rather smugly says
ReplyDelete"Far from being cyclic as he suggests ,the parallel rise in the temperature of Earth and Mars militates for Dr. Singer's theory that Phobos and Diemos are satellites installed by an alien civilization.
It is astonishing no billboards have appeared in support of Singer's hypothesis. Perhaps his friend and Heartland Fellow Larry Bell will give it an honorable mention in his Forbes column."
I have just read an article by Dr. Singer (www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/phobosdeimos2007/pdf/7020.pdf) in which he ascribes formation of the two Martian moons to the breakup of a former, much larger moon. The article makes no mention of aliens. Perhaps Russell would like to apologize for his rudness?