On The Theory Of The "Sleeping Electorate"

From ONW's Susanna Kelly:

Most people take two, perhaps three weeks vacation a year.

That means that for all the other summer weeks, they're back at work, starting the day as usual by listening to newscasts in their car during commutes, spending lots of time on their computers and Internet-rigged up (CHANGE) devices and chatting around the water cooler - just like they do the rest of the year.

On top of that, even if they are at the cottage, many of those same cottages have now been equipped with the Internet.

And there are fewer and fewer people who live in rural Canada, making their living by working the soil in relative isolation.

So the idea that many people haven't heard of, or heard much of, the Duffy trial is pretty unlikely.

It was the lead story on Internet, television and radio newscasts as well as on newspapers' front pages for many days.

And even if, as is the case with many in the electorate, they only remember the headlines, those very headlines have been very damaging.

I'm about half-ready to buy this.  Today's Forum poll suggest's that the Duffy trial has had a major negative effect on CPC numbers, though these are supposed to be the dog days.  But of course that's only Forum.  There will, however, be an EKOS poll tomorrow and Frank Graves is hinting at some pretty interesting results:

@Mikercorcoran @coreydahl nope. And some real movement. Duffy definitely registering.

— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) August 26, 2015

So there you have it.

Leger Poll Puts Tories in 3rd

The NDP has 33 percent of the vote, up one point since last month, while the Conservatives are polling at 27 percent, down five points, the Leger research group said.

The Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, the son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, are polling in second with 28 percent of the vote, up three points.

Leger is a solid pollster, though I don't think they work the ROC very often.  Anyway, they confirm one thing that everyone knows; Justin helped himself in the first debate.  You can also infer that the Duffy Trial is beginning to take its toll on CPC numbers.  Sure nobody but the poli-nerds are paying attention, but its kind of like an ugly buzz in the air that you hear whenever the news comes on, whether you're listening or not.

Pre-Debate Good News Poll, And That Thing With The Tits

Albeit from a company I've never heard of (or not heard much of):

@RJMcClelland Never heard of those guys.

— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) August 6, 2015

@Bigcitylib2 They don't poll very often but have been around for at least a few years

— Robert McClelland (@RJMcClelland) August 6, 2015

Might write more about the Trudeau boobs thing later or not.  My first response is this:

@a_picazo Good argument for progressive pols to avoid pride parades, if you ask me. #cdnpoli

— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) August 6, 2015

Are pride parades safe for LPC candidates anymore or have they been taken over by the NDP?  If so I'd say skip 'em.  Stay away from them queers.

PS. I may tweet the debate tonight, or not.  I may go out and eat chicken wings with my wife and watch old UFC clips on Sportsnet 5.  It doesn't matter.  Its boring and the after-analysis is all about bubble-dwellers trying to guess what folks outside the bubble are thinking, when for the most part they are thinking about the baseball game.

NDP On A Roll

They deserve this result:

The EKOS poll: @ThomasMulcair picking up all the marbles as @JustinTrudeau fades http://t.co/g8KcxAgEJo #cdnpoli #NDP pic.twitter.com/2bLoHWFDUE

— Chris Markevich (@cmarkevich) June 5, 2015

 They've done a few smart things, and had some good luck.  And of course, they are the only party not getting caught in the spatter of the Senate scandal.  The deal breaker for me with the NDP has always been environmental policy (and incompetence in office, but leave that aside for now).  They've always dumped their green wing when their brown wing (unionistas) complained.  BCers will remember the sell-out at Clayoquot Sound.  So they would have to assure me they won't go all pragmatic if elected.

As for the LPC, some might advocate panic.  My own opinion is that the "sunny ways" thing has gotten old and Justin and Co. need to show a few teeth.  Angry Tom is catching on because people think there are legitimate causes for anger out there.   I would forgo the communist beard and the pop-eyes and the gritting teeth, obviously.  But something has to be done.

And for those people wondering about the solidity of the CPC base.  Nobody pre-2011 figured the Libs would ever fall under 30%, then 25%, and then...  Of course Iggy was like King Midas in reverse...But still.

That Poll...

Its just one poll, and a preliminary result as well.  But pretty damn interesting.  And not entirely surprising given Notley's victory out West.  It will be important to see the regionals.  Given my previous analysis I would not be surprised if the NdD national number depends heavily on gains in the Western provinces.  

The problem for both the LPC and CPC is that the Notley effect--for surely Mulcair and the federal NDP has little to do with this sudden surge--will probably last until after election day, especially if the new Alta. gov. doesn't do anything crazy in its first budget next month.  Not that they won't get attacked by the usual suspects anyway, but they would do well by their federal cousins to present as small a target as possible.  Save the mass beheading of tar-sands executives until next year.

As for the LPC, well, being in a statistical tie a few months out from E-Day is hardly a disaster, and now the Tories may have to start spreading around some of their attack ad money.  Some are advocating panic.  On the other hand my counsel is to maintain a stiff upper lip and plow onward.  

The New Abacus Poll...

...gives the Tories an 8 point edge nationally.  This can be won back, but given the CPC's $ advantage pre-campaign, I wouldn't be surprised if it holds up until the writ drops and its worth the LPC  returning fire with advertising of their own.  And when I say it can be won back, that is not to say it will. When the election is called the score is reset and it all comes down to one month where everyone gets equal time on the television, and all that money LPC supporters have been giving the party over the past four years fuels a very bonfire of ad spending, back-slapping and baby kissing from sea to shining sea.  And in the end, we will find glory here on Earth, or drink with our  ancestors again in the halls of Valhalla.

NEW NANOS NEGATES NERVOUS NELLY-ISM!!!!

As you may know, Nanos does internal ballot tracking every week. Based on the four week rolling average, the Liberals are at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 29 per cent, the NDP at 25 per cent, the Greens at eight per cent and the BQ at four per cent. Please take note of the bonus chart in this specific release. Ballot preferences are part of the Nanos Party Power Index weekly tracking study.

Someone be sure to tell this guy.  He the nervous nelly-est of them all these days.  

Of course the budget's just come out; the gov should get a positive bump out of that.  But it's all about positioning, baby.  And the LPC is positioned not goddamn bad if I do say so myself.  Not goddamn bad at all.