The Canadian Arctic In A Warming World

Something that'll make you go "hmmm", from Cleo Paskal's Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic, and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map:

Canada currently claims the Northwest Passage as part of its territorial waters, but this assertion is being contested by the US and European Union, which want it recognized as an international strait so that they can have unfettered access for their own commercial interests, such as oil and gas exploration. This standoff, Paskal suggests, could prod Canada to explore a strategic relationship with Russia, which has its own designs on the Arctic. Meanwhile, China is knocking at Canada's door, eager to purchase a slice of the country's abundant natural resources. In a 'stateless' Northwest Passage, Russia and China could end up being the big players, especially if they forge stronger economic ties to Canada. This potential development, Paskal argues, poses a long-term security risk to the EU and US.

Will we be fighting off the yanks with our Chinese and Russian brothers? Sounds unlikely, but threatened protectionist measures against the tar sands already seem to have a "lets take Chinese money to build a pipe-line to the West coast and sell them our dirty oil" sentiment among prairie conservatives. And I do so love their honey buns.

Tar Sands Dead? The Upside Of Economic Collapse

So Says Gwyn Dyer:

"I was up in Fort MacMurray recently to give a speech about climate change. About half the audience was from oil companies. None of them were the least surprised by anything I said. They are watching this like a hawk. They know the Americans are moving towards banning the imported tar sands oil.

"The tar sands are probably dead anyway, but if Harper's gone, they're dead for sure. The day Obama got elected he came out with the offer of a joint Camadian-American emissions control treaty, with a small clause about not touching the tar sands.

"This is now going to move very fast over the next few years. The log jam has broken because the Americans are now on board. When they weren't, countries were bending over backwards to try to soften Kyoto to get them to sign on. Now we're stuck for the next 15 years with this watered down, badly mutilated treaty. A lot of wasted time. Now Obama's up to his ass in alligators, and he knows he has to drain the swamp. He'll be looking for low-cost initiatives that show America has its heart in the right place, and the tar sands are low-hanging fruit."

A bit of wishful thinking Dyer's part, I think. What will kill the tar-sands is under-40$-a-barrel oil.

In fact the current economic collapse is having all sorts of salutary effects on carbon emissions. Get a load of this graph of Chinese power generation.

Remember, for every three starving peons you can save a polar bear.