Two New Polls Indicate No Spring Election (And Maybe No 2007 Federal Election)

The New Ipsos-Reid puts Tories/Libs in a statistical dead heat:

The survey, conducted by Ipsos-Reid for CanWest News Service and Global National, says the Conservatives have the support of 36% of the population, compared to 34% for the Liberals.

[...]

The survey said the NDP held at 13%, the Bloc held at 9% and the Green party grew to 8%, up three points from the January poll.

The Tories "appear" to have momentum, says Ipsos-Reid President Darrell Bricker, but they don't appear to have much and in any case the Ontario/Quebec numbers are still pretty much where they've been for several months:

In Quebec, the Bloc had 38% support, compared with 25% for the Liberals, and 21% for the Conservatives.

In Ontario, the Liberals were ahead of the Conservatives by 41% to 38%, but the margin shrank to three points from six points in January.

Meanwhile, from Paul Wells we have a CROP Poll of the federal parties in Quebec:

But enough about that crap. You want to hear about the new CROP poll, don't you. Philistines. All right, all right. It ain't pretty: Bloc stable at 36%, a few points below anything it's ever got in an election but still no longer falling. Conservatives at 22%, also fairly stable, 3 points below their 2006 election score in Quebec. Liberals at 26%, a measurable dip. We've surely put to rest any idea that Quebecers harbour any particular animosity toward Stéphane Dion. But they need convincing just like anywhere else, and right now, they ain't convinced.

So everyone is where they've been but the Greens, who are on a definite upward trend. Therefore I think we can pretty much put aside the notion of a snap election called in late March. As Bricker says:

"The fundamentals, particularly on the issue of leadership, are definitely in the right direction for the Conservatives," Bricker said. "But they're not going to pull the plug in the midst of a Quebec election, and they are going to have a wait for at least a couple of months after that to see how things are going to shake out on a federal vote.

"So it's difficult for me to see how they end up calling an election this spring with any degree of certainty."

Furthermore, bill C-288 (the Kyoto Implementation Act), the obvious "trigger" of an election call, if you believe Conservative partisans, will not emerge from the Senate until April/May (according to Lib Leaders in the Senate), and could not therefore spark any kind of action until July/August at the earliest, which would mean a vote would come in September/October.

Of course, we will be having an Ontario election in October, and maybe an Alberta election also some time later this year.

So I am beginning to wonder if an '07 federal vote is at all likely.

In addition, it is difficult to see C-288 providing a plausible election trigger, in my opinion, for it does not seem to bind the government to unreachable targets, as so many have argued. Or at least, as Stephane Dion describes it in his Friday Star op-ed:

This bill requires the Conservatives to propose a plan to meet the challenge set by the Kyoto targets or to provide an accounting to the House on why those targets will not be met.

So, provide a plan or tell us why you've failed. It seems that, contrary to the CW, its the opposition parties who have trapped the Tories.

Sheila Copps On Kyoto Implementation

Her opinion echoes my own:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's vaunted political antennae must have been turned off last week when his party got trapped in the Liberal private member's bill on Kyoto.

[...]

What we witnessed last week was a government that's given up trying. Instead of embracing the Kyoto timelines and focusing on achieving them, the government seems committed to fight Kyoto tooth and nail.

As I've repeated on several occasions, C-288 (the Kyoto Implementation Act) is all about making a good faith effort.

And it fails as a handy early election trigger for the Tories because 1) its path through the Senate can be as long and winding, or as swift, as the Lib majority deigns appropriate, and 2) it gives the government 60 days to produce a plan: it would look awful were they to throw up their hands, planless, before the 60 days is up. So if the idea (as rumor has it) is to drop the writ within the next couple of weeks this cannot be justified with reference to C-288.

Hence those immortal words of abject surrender from Stephen Harper: "I will obey this law."

Nevertheless, the bill is not entirely toothless, because it is or shall become the law of the land. The Libs (and, more generally, all three opposition parties) can hold it over the head of Harper et al in order to put some teeth into the Clean Air Act, or cudgel him with it if the Clean Air Act turns out to be nothing but piffle.

C-288, A Triumph For The Opposition

I never thought that bill C-288 (The Kyoto Implementation Act) would turn out as badly as some progressives thought, and many Tories hoped. So when Harper caved last night and said he would "obey" the new measure, I felt quite vindicated.

Why did he do it? Well, it was clear from the Libs Senate Leader, Senator Céline Hervieux-Payette, that C-288 would not necessarily be fast-tracked through the upper-house, which meant that the timing of its passage would remain in Liberal hands. This would make it impossible for Harper to use the bill as a trigger for a March election call. And any other response (for example, doing nothing and waiting for lawsuits) would have looked like more Tory stalling.

So what is our situation now? As Antonio over at Fuddle Duddle notes, the opposition has just written the environmental law of the land:

Yesterday was already a non-confidence motion. The Liberals, BQ, and NDP already agree on enough things like Child Care, Kelowna, Status of Women Canada, etc., that they can pass legislating mandating the government to do something about it.

Technically, they cant spend any money, but they can get all kinds of bills through parliament and make the Conservative budget contradict parliament’s will.

I think this is hilarious and John McCallum should begin drafting a budget which should also be another Private Members’ Bill. I think we still have the old platform somewhere. The NDP and the Bloc have seen the poll numbers, neither wants an election. After seeing our numbers I wouldn’t want one either. Who needs an election anyway?

Well, exactly. I don't know why the three opposition parties don't just seize control of the Clean Air Act, for example, rewrite it with teeth, pass it over Conservative opposition and tell Stephen Harper to go squeal like a pig. Certainly, they can pass new regulations.

I might even suggest writing legislation proclaiming Same Sex Marriage compulsory in Alberta. Make the Tories beg for an election.

Also, I would just second Antonio's words to the effect that Pablo Rodriguez, the Liberal MP behind C-288, is an extraordinarily sexxxy guy.



In fact, Antonio himself is pretty damn sexxxy. Between these two fellas and Mitsou, is it any wonder that federal governments of all political stripes feel the need to give Quebec money whenever it pouts?

The Tories Are Like A Plate of Fried Veggies: Green On The Outside, Oily On The Inside

The Industrial/Commercial version of the Federal Energuide Program is called the Commercial Building Incentive Program (CBIP). It encourages:

...the design and construction of new, energy-efficient commercial, institutional and multi-unit residential buildings and facilities [...and...] provides design assistance and funding of up to $60,000 for eligible organizations based on building energy savings.

And of course, The Tories are letting the program die:

Last July, the CBIP program received funding for continued activities until March 31, 2007. On its web site, Natural Resources Canada said “a high volume of submissions” were received, resulting in the program being fully subscribed.

“The program is not accepting any new submissions for funding,” it said.

Canadian Architects are pissed:

"A radical statement so early in the year. Even more stunning considering recent announcements," said [Royal Architectural Institute of Canada] President Vivian Manasc. "Canada's architects are disappointed. The built environment accounts for almost half of all greenhouse gas emissions. Considering that architects across Canada have between $40 to $50 billion worth of projects 'on the Boards,' and that buildings last for 50 to 100 years, the government's lack of real commitment is appalling. We think it is time they got serious and raised rather than eliminated incentives to increasing energy efficiency."

And people have the gall to question The Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act (C-288). As long as the Tories are in power, the only route to action will be through bills passed by the three opposition parties acting in concert. This one should be supported.