An Ominous Sign

@Justin_Ling Dragging it into the fifth year was the one thing his fixed term law thingy was actually supposed to make illegal.
— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) August 8, 2014

Bit more here.

An Interesting Note On Hypothetical Elections

Had the Harper Tories not chosen to ignore, or perhaps break, their own law re fixed election dates, we would be having an election this fall (October 19th, 2009)

Just saying.

No Election Until 2012

Amid tough economic times and rising unemployment, support for the federal Conservatives continues to languish at rock-bottom levels while the Liberals have reclaimed their place as the dominant federal party in Quebec, according to a new poll.

The Bloc will take whatever inducements it is given; the NDP will wear its best shit-eating grin. In the end, and it will be a ways down the road, we will talk about how the Tories were trapped by their own legislation (Bill C-16, the fixed election date legislation), which prevents a government from going into its year 5 death spiral.

But until then, get used to what you see. Because what you see (Stalemate! Caretaker Government!) is what you're gonna get.

How Can He Do That?

The For Dummies version:

Because here's the thing: Even though we now have a fixed election law, it isn't completely binding on the government that adopted it.

The For Non-Dummies version:

1) The revised Act will NOT let a government that is down in the polls extend its term into a fifth year, a la Mulroney's gang and Bob Rae's hapless Ontario Dippers.

2) The revised act WILL continue to allow a government up in the polls to pull the plug on a parliamentary section and call a snap election, a la Chretien in 2003.

The question really has only ever been will the Tories, having touted Bill C-16, pay a price when and if they try and slip out through one of its loop-holes? Hard to say. If the first week of any election campaign can be made to be about the timing of the election call, then maybe. Think David Peterson.

By the way, Ted at Cerberus wrote about the defects of this Bill C-16 back in May/June of 2006. The MSM is just now catching up, apparently.

Tory Election Act Changes: Still Oversold

From an Natty Post article on the Torys healthy looking poll numbers; Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos-Reid, comments:

"'They have made such a strong case about their desire not to have an election that to go back now and try to instigate one makes them look a bit hypocritical. Plus, they also have a bill in the Senate right now [calling] for fixed election dates.'"

In fact, some have suggested that the Libs save their own skins by getting this bill out of the Senate before Harper can call his Spring election. Unfortunately, that probably won't work. The proposed Election Act changes are very much less than they appear. I wrote back in June, riffing on a piece done by Cerberus, that:

1) The revised Act will not let a government that is down in the polls extend its term into a fifth year, a la Mulroney's gang and Bob Rae's hapless Ontario Dippers.

2) The revised act will continue to allow a government up in the polls to pull the plug on a parliamentary session and call a snap election, a la Chretien in 2000.

Now, a few people argued back then that even if this was true, Harper would be "morally obliged" to hold off on an election call until the fixed date came up. I answered this at greater length back then, but the short response is: morally smorally! The changes still allow the government drop the writ anytime before the fixed date that they think is advantageous.