The NDP’s caught. It’s been the default party of sandal-wearing granola-crunchers for a long time, but it’s also the party of big labour, and those two constituencies are increasingly mutually exclusive. Voters have realized that you can’t be in favour of making stuff free, like water, while simultaneously being in favour of limiting its use — unless you also favour extremely heavy regulation. That’s how the NDP would solve most problems, but it’s sure not a vote-getter.
This analysis applies federally as well. IMHO the greatest opportunity for "leakage" at the national level is from Urban environmentalists who see the NDP's labor base as being as much an obstacle to progress on green issues as the Tories.
Although I think Mr. Reevely's semi-approving words re the Frank De Jong campaign also indicate that the Green's have a real opportunity to pull support from the right side of the political spectrum as well, federally as well as provincially.