The day began with a somewhat bummerish poll proclaiming Ontario Lib Premier to be in "minority territory", capturing a mere 40 per cent of the popular vote against the Tory Tories 35 per cent, and facing a slightly resurgent NDP and Green Party.
The day ended with a promise (backed by Ontario's first balanced budged in gawd knows how long, announced over the weekend) to upload almost a $1,000,000,000 worth of the crap Mike Harris dumped on Ontario's cities during his black reign in the 1990s.
Putting partisanship aside momentarily (because I don't think Dalton deserves another majority), you've got to think things are breaking the government's way. I would have figured the poll hit over Collegate would have been much larger, but no, and unless something new churns up, the effect of this mini-scandal has already been baked in to the final result.
As Jeff pointed out this morning, one thing about having fixed election dates is you know exactly when the vote will occur and, if you're the government, you can calculate precisely when and where to distribute the free candy. In this case--depending on how the distribution of funds works out--McGuinty has bought off David Miller and Toronto City Council.
Add to this the fact that John Tory is just another white guy in a suit, and we've already got one of those running the province, and you're looking at a strong McGuinty Minority or perhaps even another Majority.