This new SES poll came out yesterday and seems to have gone unremarked:
Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty will likely need NDP support to hang onto a second-term minority government, shows an SES Research/Osprey Media poll.
Forty per cent of Ontario’s voters polled say they’ll vote Liberal in the fall election, compared to 34 per cent who back John Tory’s Conservatives, 19 per cent for Howard Hampton’s NDP and eight per cent for Frank de Jong’s Green Party.
An unnecessarily dark spin to put on the numbers, IMHO. Forty per cent is very close to Majority territory, and unless something unforeseen occurs, John Tory has run out of bullets. Nik Nanos, president of SES Research, thinks the possibility of a NDP/Lib alliance might be enough to drive some into the arms of the Conservatives:
“One of the strategic things that could unfold during the campaign is that if it looks like a Liberal minority government, then the Conservatives are going to be able to dredge up memories of Liberal/NDP government’s past and what they meant for the government and government spending,” Nanos said.
“They’ll be able to bring up that bogeyman, which probably will be quite effective among voters over 40 years of age who still remember that particular government,” he said.
But that's a lot of "ifs", especially since I don't think most Ontarians look back on the Peterson years with any particular animosity.
Furthermore, Tory's campaign is off to a rocky start, having gone negative early and displaying a bit of a testy streak when challenged. No wonder he is showing, as Mr. Nanos puts it, "no momentum". In fact this bit I think he's got pegged:
“And right now, what we’re seeing is an electorate that really isn’t in a mood for change yet,” Nanos said. “There’s not what I’ll say is the ‘Kick-the-bums-out-feeling’ in the electorate at this point in time.”
Tory in 2011? Maybe. 2007? Less and less likely.