Sunday, July 21, 2013

Ontario By-Elections: Scott's Gut

The esteemed Scott Tribe says:

The OLP seems to be holding on a slight lead to the Toronto ridings (Scarborough and Etobicoke). They are probably ahead in Mcguinty’s old riding in Ottawa.

Windsor will go NDP unless every NDP voter down there decides not to bother showing up to the polls

The OLP is in a bit of trouble in London. I suspect the PC’s are in front here.

Scott's gut coincides with mine, at least re Scarborough T.O.  I can't see that riding flipping unless Giambrone siphons off enough votes that the place goes PCPO, and I don't think even NDP hard-cores like Giambrone.  The response I've got going door-to-door is a lot of eye-rolling: "That guy?"  So I don't believe an unexpected result is in the cards.

 Etobicoke OTOH will be interesting--an empirical test of the strength of Ford Nation.   That's the one to watch.


Scott @ Prog Blog said...

Nice of you to agree, but you're overdoing it with calling me esteemed, methinks.

bigcitylib said...

You are esteemed on this blog anyway.

Nitangae said...
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Nitangae said...

Also useless observation, but if I merely looked at the Old South bit of London West (and only that bit which I walk or bike around), I would predict an NDP sweep. There is a total of one Conservative sign on private property (as opposed to the side of the road somewhere, which I don't count), one Green party sign, no Liberal signs and lots and lots of NDP signs. But I recognize that this is pretty useless measure. The Tories are so certain that this particular end of London West is a hopeless cause that, although I have been visited by every other major party,I have yet to be visited by the Tories.

Of course, I recognize that there is a vast suburban London West where things are different, and which will actually determine the election.