The esteemed Scott Tribe says:
The OLP seems to be holding on a slight lead to the Toronto ridings (Scarborough and Etobicoke). They are probably ahead in Mcguinty’s old riding in Ottawa.
Windsor will go NDP unless every NDP voter down there decides not to bother showing up to the polls
The OLP is in a bit of trouble in London. I suspect the PC’s are in front here.
Scott's gut coincides with mine, at least re Scarborough T.O. I can't see that riding flipping unless Giambrone siphons off enough votes that the place goes PCPO, and I don't think even NDP hard-cores like Giambrone. The response I've got going door-to-door is a lot of eye-rolling: "That guy?" So I don't believe an unexpected result is in the cards.
Etobicoke OTOH will be interesting--an empirical test of the strength of Ford Nation. That's the one to watch.