And it's true. I cannot see a party led by some coup leader doing better than the current leader. As for recent polls, McGuinty was down 15% back in 2011, which is similar to today's numbers after inflation. And if politics was the UFC I would say that the OLP is good fighting on their backs. They can find Patrick Brown's weakness, and submit him.
Remember that line from Beowulf : Luck, Often Enough, Will Find A Man If His Courage Holds.