Federal Election: Thanksgiving Dinner Edition

At the in-laws last evening, dinner never really deteriorated into a discussion of federal politics. However, it appears that the choices have been whittled down to CPC vs. LPC, with the NDP falling out of the equation. They're all longtime liberal-leaners, so I suspect when the final decisions are made it will go that way.  More interesting is the fact that one of father in-law's McDonald's friends says he'll bring PCPO leader Patrick Brown down to a local McDs one day for a chat.  I've put in a call to the Premier's office, to see if Kathleen is willing to come around and clean father in-law's eaves-troughs.  Or at least send around a minister or two to rake his back yard.  You gotta work for folks, or they'll turn on you.

Why Is Kathleen Wynne Running So Hard For LPC?

Because the Ontario Pension Plan is dead otherwise.  Harper has already said he won't cooperate. That means Ontario can't piggy-back everything onto the CPC, then pay the feds a cut to use their infrastructure and manage the money.  Ontario would have to start from scratch, to build a whole parallel bureaucracy.  Expensive and inefficient.  Wynne's most significant campaign commitment depends on a Liberal government taking power in Ottawa.

Harper Hanging With Crazies (ie Andrew Lawton)

Prime Minister Harper went on Andrew Lawton's show?  To bash dark skinned foreigners and liberals? That's a pretty low move, even for this campaign.  Andrew's history of Muzzie baiting can be seen here, for example.  So it looks like Harper is using the Niqab thing to reconnect with his lunatic base. But its interesting that he thinks they need to be given such personal attention at this point in the campaign.  As I've said occasionally in the past, Harper and Co. have made efforts to distance himself from these people in order to be seen as fit to govern  Now suddenly he thinks he needs them all on-side.

Trudeau Vs. Suzuki: A Brief Note

During the course of a campaign, its always good to prove your center right creds by kicking a few hippies https://t.co/Wdw5WNH7Ts

— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) September 27, 2015

In The Internet Age You Have To Watch Your Fringe Candidates

Nothing wrong with this piece.  Candidate fuck-ups are stories finished in a day.  But of course, as Tim Powers notes, you lose that day's news-cycle. There's a way to think of it in economic terms; the money you spent that day to get your message out has gone up the flue.  So when someone like Jago greases a Tory, you can measure what it cost the campaign in cold hard cash.  "Winning the debate" is nice.  Making them bleed money is better.

The Story Of Gerry Bance

From Canadian Cincinnatus, some background:

I attended the Conservative nomination meeting, which was held this spring, in order to support my favoured candidate, Paul Egli, a retired and distinguished businessman. In the contested nomination flight, Egli sold about three hundred memberships and felt pretty good about himself. In contrast, Bance sold over a thousand memberships and most of them showed up that night to vote for him. Egli was buried. The attendance at nomination meeting was bigger than at any nomination meeting I have ever attended – by an order of magnitude.

Gerry Bance, you see, is that character that should be familiar to anybody who has ever been involved in riding-level politics: the ethnic fixer, somebody who wields mysterious power over the people in his own ethnic community. In a democracy where the guiding principle is one man, one vote, somebody who can mobilize a thousand voters out to a nomination meeting is a powerful man indeed. Gerry Bance is (or was) such a man in the Tamil community.

More through the link.

Another Day Spent Off-Message

Conservative candidate Jerry Bance was caught on CBC-TV's Marketplace in 2012 urinating in a homeowner's coffee mug and dumping the contents into the sink.

I'm betting the guy gets sacked by dawn and Harper takes no questions during tomorrow's GTA visit.

PS.  This guy apparently ran for CPC previously.  They've been in power 9 years and this is the kind of talent they attract in T.O.

Robert Jago Soldiers On

I think Robert and I were the first two bloggers in Canadian history to force a candidate to step down for things they'd said  on the Internet.  But in '08 Robert only scored one Green (for anti-Semitic comments, I think); whereas I nailed a Tory, a Dipper, and a Tory campaign official.  That's why I've got part of an exhibit devoted to me in the Museum of Civilization and Robert doesn't.

As usual, the Yankees were ahead of us by a decade.  In 1996 one of Bob Dole's campaign staffers had to step down when he and his wife were found to have participated in a listserv for swingers, if I remember it correctly.  Anyway, I've not got time to put the detective work in these days, but Jago is still at it.  He's greased one or two Tories already this cycle, and is promising that there's more to come.

 This is his latest.  Keep an eye on his blog.   By the end of election 2015, someone might owe Robert a Senate appointment.

Coming To An Attack Near You

To go with this.  Not a good day for the CPC campaign.

Not A Communist: Tom & Maggie

Actually this doesn't look bad on him.  Equivalent to finding out that Harper once played drums in a Hendrix cover band (he didn't).  Not sure there was any reason for the campaign to even formally address a clip that old unless they figured it worked in their favor.  And it does; if Tom secretly dug Thatcher  he can't be that bad, some might think. I imagine any real problem will come from the party base.  Mulcair has the delicate task of convincing the nation that the NDP's not  communist anymore while assuring the faithful that it still is.

Smart Or Stupid? (Mulcair And The Debates)

Mulcair is threatening to pull out of any debate that Harper ain't at.  Already, a tide of outrage is rising on twitter.  Democracy is being defiled!!! and so forth.  Mulcair would be wise to ignore it. Catering to that tiny sliver of the nation's citizenry  who are immersed in its federal politics is profitless.  Its like trying to service a few thousand high maintenance girlfriends. Exhausting, and a money sucker.  So how will this play to the wider audience of the unwashed and apathetic?   That is, the target audience?  Well, probably not badly.  Mulcair wants to be Prime Minister, not one of the also-rans.  So why waste time arguing with losers over scraps? Fight the guy you're out to replace!  That's the thinking behind the move, as far as I can figure it.  So: smart or stupid?  Right now I'd file it as dirty but effective. As for the LPC response, well I hope it doesn't involve whining about how unfair life is. 

A Short Note On A Long Election

This has risks for all parties.  The risks for the 2nd and 3rd parties are obvious.  They might run out of dough.  But it also has a downside for the CPC.  More is not always better when it comes to bombarding the airwaves with attack ads.  Once you've reached the saturation point you're just wasting money  And, remember, these guys are terrible when they don't have a script.  Now they have twice as much script to write, and airheads like Kory Teneycke are going to be the auteurs.  

The CPoC War Room, or: Did Kory Teneycke Strike Again?

You're Not Helping, Kory Teneycke

From Global, earlier today:

He's got to be someone's useless cousin, right?  "Please, sir, if he can't get a job with the party he'll either end up in jail or in real estate."  Right?  Here's the full Kory file on BCLSB, for kicks.  And my favorite bit from it.

On Such Issues Are Elections Won And Lost

Canada’s economy shrank between January and March, the first contraction in four years and the largest since the 2009 recession as collapsing energy prices prompted a plunge in business investment.

The other stuff is trivia.  Although this sparked quite a bit of water-cooler talk yesterday afternoon.

When You've Lost The Prison Guards...

...or at least their union....well. I don't know what happens.  But this surely can't be good news for the Harper gov.:

KITCHENER, ON, May 22, 2015 /CNW Telbec/ - Dozens of correctional officers working in Ontario penitentiaries who are affiliated with the Union of Canadian Correctional Officers (UCCO-SACC-CSN) will be going door to door in the riding of Kitchener-Centre on Saturday, May 23, to urge voters not to support the Conservative Party of Canada in the next election. 

My favorite bit:

"The Conservative government claims it's tough on crime. This tough on crime agenda is nothing but smoke and mirrors aimed at reassuring voters," said Robert Finucan, UCCO-SACC-CSN's Ontario regional president.

The Conservative government cut $355 million from the Correctional Service's budget. Hardest hit by these cuts is the inmate training program. One of the consequences of this decision is that penitentiaries have become more dangerous for correctional officers.

That's Stephen Woodworth's riding.  An NDP win might be a stretch, but it used to be LPC...

Rachel Notley Does A Smart Thing

No real budget until fall.  Until after the federal election, Alberta treads water.  And the federal NDP takes no heat for any unpopular measures said budget might contain.  The politics of it can be criticized.  Nevertheless its pretty clever.

New LPC Ad Is Pretty Clever

They've bought space during some of  tonight's hockey games, apparently.  Probably for just a night or two, and then they'll hope The Net spreads word a bit further.  They'll get good media coverage out of it.  It's clever and positive and on point.  Just one shot in the battle, but nicely aimed.

Just A Forum Poll

Takes them until par 8 to finally, grudgingly admit that the LPC is still slightly ahead:

The Liberals under Mr. Trudeau were the first or leaning choice for 34 per cent of the survey’s respondents, compared to 31 per cent who said they would or would likely vote Conservative and only 23 per cent who favoured the NDP, the poll found.

Instead they prefer to spend a ton of ink talking about how Mulcair's fortunes have improved without much moving the gauge on the horse-race question.  Which is sort of like losing, but winning a moral victory.  Which means losing.

O Glorious Justin!: Trudeau's Speech

"It is a cruel joke to claim that you are liberating people from oppression by dictating in law what they can and cannot choose to wear"
— Paul Wells  (@InklessPW) March 10, 2015

I didn't hear it live, but all accounts say its old-timey Liberalism.  So people will yell about it.  Which is good.  Justin and the LPC need to poke a few people in the eye, get the debate a bit more livened up than its been.  The above is what he said about the niqab in Quebec thing. True, and prettily phrased.

This is what he said about C-51.

Why support C51, Trudeau asked. Contains concrete measures,' that will make Cdns safer,' he responds
— Michael Den Tandt (@mdentandt) March 10, 2015

It's important to note again  that the NDP position on C-51 is empty posturing.  Given the nature of our political system, it will pass in whatever manner the government chooses.  After that happens, Mulcair has admitted that he will merely amend, not kill, the bill, should he ever become PM.  The only difference between the NDP and LPC is therefore the individual clauses they would choose to delete.  So why  is the NDP making a futile attempt to kill a bill they obviously see some good in? Anyway: good answer, Justin.