On The Theory Of The "Sleeping Electorate"

From ONW's Susanna Kelly:

Most people take two, perhaps three weeks vacation a year.

That means that for all the other summer weeks, they're back at work, starting the day as usual by listening to newscasts in their car during commutes, spending lots of time on their computers and Internet-rigged up (CHANGE) devices and chatting around the water cooler - just like they do the rest of the year.

On top of that, even if they are at the cottage, many of those same cottages have now been equipped with the Internet.

And there are fewer and fewer people who live in rural Canada, making their living by working the soil in relative isolation.

So the idea that many people haven't heard of, or heard much of, the Duffy trial is pretty unlikely.

It was the lead story on Internet, television and radio newscasts as well as on newspapers' front pages for many days.

And even if, as is the case with many in the electorate, they only remember the headlines, those very headlines have been very damaging.

I'm about half-ready to buy this.  Today's Forum poll suggest's that the Duffy trial has had a major negative effect on CPC numbers, though these are supposed to be the dog days.  But of course that's only Forum.  There will, however, be an EKOS poll tomorrow and Frank Graves is hinting at some pretty interesting results:

@Mikercorcoran @coreydahl nope. And some real movement. Duffy definitely registering.

— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) August 26, 2015

So there you have it.

That Poll...

Its just one poll, and a preliminary result as well.  But pretty damn interesting.  And not entirely surprising given Notley's victory out West.  It will be important to see the regionals.  Given my previous analysis I would not be surprised if the NdD national number depends heavily on gains in the Western provinces.  

The problem for both the LPC and CPC is that the Notley effect--for surely Mulcair and the federal NDP has little to do with this sudden surge--will probably last until after election day, especially if the new Alta. gov. doesn't do anything crazy in its first budget next month.  Not that they won't get attacked by the usual suspects anyway, but they would do well by their federal cousins to present as small a target as possible.  Save the mass beheading of tar-sands executives until next year.

As for the LPC, well, being in a statistical tie a few months out from E-Day is hardly a disaster, and now the Tories may have to start spreading around some of their attack ad money.  Some are advocating panic.  On the other hand my counsel is to maintain a stiff upper lip and plow onward.  

Analysis Of Gas Plants Scandal's Effect On Ontario Election Polls...Expressed In Concrete Poetry!

Gasplantsgasplantzgasplanzz

gasplazzzgasplzzzzgaspzzzzz

gaszzzzzzgazzzzzzzgzzzzzzzz

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Poll Alert! New EKOS on Monday

@Bigcitylib2 monday, and for all the poll needy we are going to be doing a rollin poll fairly soon so numbers every day!
— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) May 31, 2014

New EKOS Poll Shows Steady OLP Lead, NDP Sliding Off Track Into Snow Fence Of Failure, Green Party Surge!!!!!!

From here.

Looking at the NDP numbers, one could make cheap jokes about "electile dysfunction", but we are above that here at BCLSB. The Green party spike is fascinating and, I hope, permanent.  Having even one GP rep has made an out-sized difference not only federally with Canadian Hero Lizzy May as an MP, but out in B.C. where Andrew Weaver has been stirring up shit like nobody's business as an MLA.  Electing a Green MPP in Ontario would be like a refreshing taste of spearmint in the stale air down at Queen's Park.

PS.  Yes just writing about Ontario polls is lazy but nothing else has got me really juiced the past couple of weeks.

New EKOS Poll Result Is Good For OLP

First the highlights: our polling shows the Liberals with a clear and possibly growing lead. They have opened up a seven-point lead on Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives (PC) and the (for now) hapless NDP have blown up under a decision to pull the plug on a budget that normally would have been seen as quite attractive to the NDP and their supporters. 

My analysis: SUCK IT HATERS!  SEE THIS PINK THING WIGGLING HERE!  ITS MY ASS! KISS IT! BOOYAH!!!  BOOYAH!!!!!  VICTORY OR VALHALLA!!!

EKOS Says Its Tied

Maybe a rogue poll. Or, on the other hand, there've been a string of pretty crummy looking economic reports lately. The recovering is starting to feel a bit like the recession. These could be weighing the government down.

Anyway, I'm sure Steve V will be along to explain it all, and of course Kady gives it a stab through the link.

In The Next Election, The Tories Will Run Against EKOS

Demands for an overarching narrative behind a government/opposition party's actions have always seemed misplaced to me: usually pols toss whatever stones are close at hand. But if the Tories are going to make bashing Frank Graves this central to their rhetoric, it must mean they're running out of the good stuff. I mean...Frank who? Outside maybe 2,000 blogging nerds in the Cdn. politics ghetto of the blogging nerdosphere, whose ever heard of the guy?

Prorogation (?) Continues To Take Toll

The new EKOS has Libs and Tories in a statistical tie. Interesting in that:

1) The weekly trend shows a gradual Tory decline beginning before the prorogation decision. Its easy to forget that they were riding a string of bad news in the month or so leading up to that decision.

2) The Libs are finally starting to benefit a little from that decline, rather than bouncing along the bottom at around 27%.

3) The polling dates are from Jan 13 to Jan 19, so Harper's relatively adequate response to the Haiti earthquake doesn't seem to have helped him much.

And, OT, this is clever. Liberals should at least learn how to feign non-arrogance, at least for short periods of time.

Iggy: To Know Him Is To Dislike Him Marginally Less

...back to election levels.

All just twitches, really, but compared to early Nov. the Libs have twitched up, the other parties down.

Looks like my prediction that the Lib reversal re the gun registry would hurt them hasn't come to pass. Perhaps the idea is to cleanse the party of anything resembling an idea and wait until people simply get tired of Harper and Co. After all, the Conservatives and NDP have done it (NDP by betraying its green wing and over the registry). Why should the pragmatic party, the party that has always already pre-sold out, be the last one required to bear a consistent ideology? Color me confused.

Oops! This looks dangerous! Everyone going there, just get bombed and fornicate and, if you're asked about ideas, say the Libs. will introduce universal daycare...again...eventually.

Whoopsie! I was comparing to a three week old poll. There are several others that have come out between then and now. Still, numbers haven't changed much.

Tories Slip A Bit

The Conservatives still have a double-digit lead over the Liberals, with the support of 37.4 per cent of decided respondents, down from 38.4 per cent last week. Liberal support held steady at 26.8 per cent and the New Democratic Party saw support slip to 16.3 per cent from 16.7 per cent last week.

...a little further from majority territory, about where we were at election time last year, and down a little over 3 points from their EKOs peak of three weeks ago.

No regionals that I could find, and of course taken before the gun registry vote last night. Difficult to say how this will effect things going forward. A few have argued that, the issue off the table, Libs./NDP might have an easier time in rural ridings. We shall see. I think the vote will allow those hard-core Tories who have been angered by perceived over-spending and other sins of the gov. to forgive them; I can also see the Libs losing support for betraying their urban base. I can certainly see it affecting their fundraising numbers; not like they'll get another penny out of me, for example, although I am looking forward to Mr. Rocco's next email. He will get a long, obscenity filled response, if nothing else.

Ps. Kady has regional results.

As Don Martin

...speaks, so too is Don Martin refuted:

Asked which party they would vote for were a federal election held tomorrow, 32.6 per cent of respondents said they would cast their ballots for Stephen Harper's Tories, while the same percentage opted for Michael Ignatieff's Liberals, EKOS said.

[...]

The Liberals have erased a small but persistent lead enjoyed by the Tories throughout most of the summer by improving their fortunes in the battleground province of Ontario, EKOS said.

Maybe Mr. Martin is waiting on one of those "special" Ipsos polls exclusive to CanWest media.