BREAKING NEWS: By-Election Results Offer No Compelling Narrative!!!

Status Quo.  Close in Brandon.  Whumped 'em in T.O. Center and Bourassa  LPC increased its vote share, so that's nice but no big thng.  Didn't I tell you so?  I did!

PS.  Dear Forum Research, your crappy polls were only off by like 30 percent in Brandon.  You officially suck.

Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affair, On Recent Forum Polls

The occasion is this story in the Winnipeg Free Press:

Forum released its latest round of polling late Sunday night following calls into the riding during the day. The survey has a relatively small sample size but suggests Liberal Rolf Dinsdale enjoys 59 per cent support, a commanding lead over Conservative Larry Maguire’s 30 per cent.

But, several Brandon-Souris residents report being polled multiple times throughout the campaign as Forum conducted several waves of polling using random, automated robocalls, where voters indicate their candidate preference using their touch-tone phone.

Brandon resident Anne Ross has received six calls from Forum since the campaign began, raising questions about the poll’s reach and its randomness. Ross was called for each of the five polls released so far, including the latest one. She also received a call on Saturday as part of a poll that has not been released.

"I don’t know why I would keep getting called," said Ross, a Liberal.

Ross is the mother of Free Press opinion columnist Deveryn Ross, who said he has been called by Forum Research six times during the campaign, including three times since Friday night.

Two other voters who spoke to the Free Press Sunday, including one Conservative, said they also received multiple calls from Forum Research.

There are 62,000 registered voters in the riding.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff calls interactive voice-response polls "amazingly accurate." He said while it’s unusual someone might get called six times in a random poll, he doesn’t believe that undermines the poll’s results.

This inspired a series of skeptical tweets from Bricker:

Anybody else receive multiple calls from these guys? In "random" survey this would be almost impossible. http://t.co/tKNln2G1XF
— Darrell Bricker (@darrellbricker) November 25, 2013

And:

REALLY? Somebody was hit 6 times randomly? Twice, maybe, but 6 times? And multiple people multiple times? http://t.co/tKNln2G1XF
— Darrell Bricker (@darrellbricker) November 25, 2013

And especially:

Journos here's the question to ask - are you empaneling respondents and calling them multiple times? http://t.co/tKNln2G1XF
— Darrell Bricker (@darrellbricker) November 25, 2013

I think what he's getting at is easy enough to follow, but here's a definition of "empaneling". I assume he's wondering if they are not recalling the same list and tracking how voting intentions change during the run-up to the by-election.  Not that doing it this way would make the polls wrong, but presumably you would evaluate them differently from a random truly sample.

If that's what Forum is doing.  Nobody knows what they're doing.  Just that this kind of thing shouldn't happen.

@Bigcitylib2 Saying that responsible pollsters clearly communicate how they do their polls. They wouldn't leave anyone confused like this.
— Darrell Bricker (@darrellbricker) November 25, 2013

By-Election Prediction

No seats change hands and everyone spins the status quo.  With a small chance that Rolf wins out in Brandon, which would be a real victory, and a true sign.  Otherwise wake me when the pontificating dies down.

Victory Or Valhalla!

The race is on in the federal ridings of Toronto-Centre, Provencher, Brandon-Souris and Bourassa.

A special shout-out to Rolf Dinsdale, once lead guitarist for SFH and a guy with what might only be described as a thing for hats.  Good luck as LPC candidate out in  Brandon-Souris, dude, because I don't think they'll let you back into town if you lose.  Or even if you win, come to think of it.

And, just as a note to the LPC as an organization: throw it all at these by-elections, even where there is, based on recent trends, no hope.  That's how you break through, by showing up and putting out even if you know you won't win.  People take note, and appreciate.  And next time maybe you do win.

PS.  I've met Rolf a couple of times, and seen him play.  He's a decent guy, and a decent guitar-player.  As an MP, he would rule OK.

Oh Please Let It Be True

Ezra Levant urged to run in newly vacant Calgary Centre

There would be an endless amount of muck to fling that would stick to Ezra and any Tory stupid enough to be seen within a 100 meters of him.  Starting with, just for example, this. 

Remember: to know Ezra is to sue him.

CPoC Calgary Centre-North Candidate Michelle Rempel Is Way Past Hot

Here's a picture of her with some non-blonde. Note the look of pity on her face, as she sympathizes with the non-blonde for her not being blonde. I find that most blondes are like that. Innately noble and always courteous towards their weaker sisters.

Here's another picture of her in a cowboy hat (note: I've cropped the original to remove most of the non-blonde bits): I am told there are also pictures out there of her wearing naughty-secretary glasses, but these should be enough for tonight.

Calgary North Liberals are so fucking doomed.

PS. I have recently been informed that Mike Lake, Tory MP for Edmonton Beaumont, has great hair, something I had not heard before. If this is true, stay tuned for a BCLSB exclusive.

Vaughan By-Election Poll

Haven't seen this graphic make the rounds too much. It's from here, from a couple of days ago. I mention it because, while listening to WK play at Cherry Cola's last night, one of his Lib insider buddies told me the poll was horsehit and Fantino would carry the seat based on the support of suburban Rob Ford types. Maybe. I thought, however, that Julian F. would be up by a mile in any published survey, and so I will interpret this one as good news.

As for SFH, they're not bad at all. WK sells them short a bit, I think. Also, he was playing a pretty violin shaped bass like the one McCartney used...you know, the cute Beatle. Also: nice t-shirts.

Its Official

h/t

PS. WK wonders if the Libs can hold this seat. I wonder if they can find anyone to run.

By-Election Soon?

On my daily perambles I spied the campaign office of one John Carmichael going up in 49 Don Valley West. Turns out he will the Tory running for John Godfrey's seat in Don Valley West. Here's his website. Probably a lamb to slaughter, given Godfreys' previous margins of victory, but interesting (maybe) in that he's already getting a fax machine in place, as it were. Does this argue for Harper engineering an early election, or making a quick by-election call when Godfrey retires in July?

Poll: Still Deadlocked

OTTAWA – Another national poll suggests the Conservatives and the Liberals remain locked in a dead heat with little sign of momentum. The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey had support for both the major federal parties flatlining at 32 per cent.

A number of writers, including Paul Wells today, seem to be implying that some of these polls are over-estimating Liberal support. On the other hand, plenty of bad news in this new poll from Calgary TV, the CPoC party organ.

Now that the by elections are past, however, the Libs should be able to take a more aggressive stance in the HOC. Might not do them any good, though, due to the crap nature of the NDP's support last night (which Wells also discusses).

Because it has been my secret belief that the NDP doesn't want an election at the moment either, but have been able to hide behind the Libs due to the latter's sad state for the last few months. Now that this sad state has been rectified, I wouldn't be surprised to see Layton's troops figuring out creative ways of chickening out.

Don't expect an election call any time soon, in other words.

Not Victory, But... "Viggdury", Perhaps?

Took a pasting in Sask., Quadra closer than it had any right to be, Toronto what you would expect.

Just enough there to keep Liberal supporters from suicide; more than enough to give Torys something to gloat about.

Most important, the "getting our act together" phase of Liberal rebuilding should be over now. Organizers should get organizing, and preparations made for any upcoming election.

Here's a possible trigger right here. If Harper and co. attempt to extend the Afghanistan mission without Manley's conditions being met, they should be called on it.