There is, however, a big obstacle in the way: Mr. Ignatieff can't force an election by himself. He needs the votes of the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois to defeat the Conservatives on a vote of no-confidence. In other words, he has to reactivate the coalition with the socialists and separatists against which Canadians reacted so strongly last fall.
It's of a piece with the Tories "roll to the right" strategy lately, and we see where that's getting them. I doubt it would work anyway, but if your political opponent wants to tar you as a rebel and traitor, it probably helps that your latest book is an old fashion call to Canadian Patriotism. Most excellent timing there.
Flanagan gets one point right, though. Iggy needs both the NDP and Bloc to bring Harper down, and:
...why would [the NDP] rush into an election if the polls suggest the Liberals are going to do well? The NDP had its best results in 1988, when the Liberals were at a low point. In the six elections starting in 1993, the result has always been the same: When the Liberals go up, the NDP goes down, and vice versa. Jack Layton has worked hard in three campaigns to build up his party's caucus from 13 members when he became leader to 37 after the 2008 election. Will he risk those gains trying to put in power a Liberal leader who mirrors the Conservative leader on so many major issues?
What enflamed environmentalists about the NDP in the last Federal election has been vented upon their provincial counterparts at the beginning of this B.C. election in a particularly nasty fashion. And if anyone was paying attention, they would see a party/movement tearing itself quite loudly into its ideological parts, its green and brown wings. Jack Layton is going to want to lay low for the time being, and figure out how to stitch back what he has torn asunder. I see ways by which he could be convinced to keep the Harper government alive, the result being that we have a Federal government too weak to do much harm because it is simply too weak to act in any significant fashion. The nation staggers on for another year or so.
On the up-side, the NDP will become the party of Abstention. I am preparing rhetorical stink-bombs to lob their way, satisfied that they will make big stinky splat marks on the party's reputation.
