Premier Dalton McGuinty's governing party has 41 per cent voter support against 36 per cent for the Conservatives, compared with a seven-point lead in an Aug. 24 Ipsos Reid poll. The New Democratic and Green parties trail at 17 and six per cent, respectively.
The early numbers translate to a slim Liberal majority government of 55 seats out of 107, according to an analysis done for Ipsos Reid based on the last five publicly released polls. The Tories are currently projected to take 40 seats, with 12 for the NDP.
The other way is to note, as the paper does, that "McGuinty's lead [has slipped] to 5 points" (that's down two points). And I suppose a third way is to note that its all within the margin of error.
The only thing a bit scary in the poll is this:
Conservative support in the competitive 905 belt surrounding Toronto rose two points from late August, opening up a lead over the Liberals. Suburban ethnic communities, normally a bastion of Liberal support, could be propelling the jump in light of Mr. Tory's faith-based school promise, Mr. Wright said.
Scary, except that I don't really believe it; I don't see anyone, outside of a few small Jewish groups, really solidly behind Tory's proposal and, as the poll notes, about 66 per cent oppose it.