Somebody Got Suckered

Short version of this story: Iggy refused to to deal with Tamil protesters because of their possible connections to the LTTE. The NDP had no such compunctions, and harvested the Tamil vote.

And the CPoC? They unleashed the hounds on any politician appearing next to anyone with even vague connections to The Tigers, which seems to have freaked out Iggy and co. and guided their response to the issue.

And then the CPoC turned around and quite shamelessly ran people with LTTE connections.

I'm shitty at poker, but one day before I die I would like to play poker with Iggy.

Canada's First Tamil MP

...is really hot.  That is all.

Dude From Ipsos Prognosticates

 Yesterday, while working to make the world a better place for Canadian small businessmen, I managed to catch part of a presentation by Ipsos Senior Vice President John Wright.  A couple of highlights:

1) He's predicting at  least two consecutively Harper majorities, due to the "chaos" on the political Left which will take "years" to sort out.  He talked mostly about how the NDP MPs from Quebec had no real connection to the federal party's ideology, and how it would all end badly.  Which might be prescient, or a statement of the obvious.  But either way there is also some simple math involved: the distance between 34 LPoC seats and 155 will be difficult to cross in a single election.

2) Regarding the upcoming election in Ontario, Mr. Wright figured that Ms. Horwath would wheel out Jack Layton but it might  not help much (memories of Bob Rae); that Tim Hudak (if I remember this correctly) was saving up his dough for after the upcoming PCPO convention and that the Ontario Tory ad blasts would not start until then; and that a "Bill Davis-style" minority gov. for either Hudak or McGuinty was a distinct possibility.

So there you have it.

PS. Won't be around much today either.

Fire Alfred Apps

That is all.

PS. Kinsella has reasons. I'm too tired for reasons right now. My gut says he sucks.

PPS. I didn't always think that Alfred Apps sucked.  Guts can change.

A Silver Lining

Joe Volpe went down to defeat. Apparently the dead wouldn't rise up to vote for him this time.  You want LPoC renewal, having him gone is a start.

Oh, and Lizzie May's another flash of sunlight in the gloom.  Frankly, I don't trust the NDP to treat enviro issues as anything but a frill.

Otherwise a crap night and one the Libs brought on themselves.  I am, incidentally, thinking about finally taking out a membership (I never have, though I've donated once or twice), if only to get close enough to bite a few people.

Blogging Tories Goes Off-Line

Afraid of Tory Rebs illegally spilling results?

PS. My psychic senses detect only a small NDP surge in the Maritimes. But I can speak no more about it!

Get Out The Tar And Feathers

I was never an Ignatieff fan, even though I once argued that, under the circumstance, appointing him in 2009 was the best/cheapest option available at the time. Since I also don't like the recent LPoC habit of trashing their leaders after a single election loss, I've also wondered about what the minimum seat count would be for Iggy to stay on.  But if this poll is right...in fact, if any of the recent polls are right...then Iggy, baby, this just ain't gonna work.

What is the way forward for the federal Liberals?  I don't know.  Appoint Bob Rae as (interim(?)) leader?  Assuming another minority government, is there time for anything more fancy? 

But putting the party (and therefore the nation) at risk to take down a government that was entirely incapable of passing any deleterious legislation--which is what Michael Ignatieff did in allowing this election to go forward-- is NOT the kind of behavior that should be rewarded.

h/t

Keep Talking...

Layton "rub and tug" scandal explodes in Conservative blogosphere, Tory momentum reversed.

Or its all random twitchings in the body of the electorate.  Which still means Canadians are assigning this incident the significance it deserves = 0.

PS.  Looks like NANOS will put out one more poll this evening.

Fuck You Stephen Harper

Stephen Harper is pleading with traditional Liberal voters to support his Conservatives to stave off a “disastrous” leftist government headed by NDP Leader Jack Layton.

Oh, and if you do stumble into a Majority, come get some, shithead.  It ain't even fair fucking with you clowns unless the numbers are 10 to 1 in your favor.

Ontario Still Not There For CPoC Majority; Masturbagate Still Non-Story

NANOS shows the NDP down a bit; the CPoC up a bit, but not in Ontario, where they need to be if they want their majority.   Because who cares how high they soar in Alberta, as long as the people out there only get to vote once?

As for Jack's visit to the alleged "rub and tug"; I suspect if anything the story will only work to his benefit, this late in the game.  People will see that the CPoC (and of course we all know this stuff originated with the CPoC) is getting desperate.  Remember the Rob Ford campaign.  At a certain point, the stories about Ford's improprieties were all dismissed as the kind of garbage you would expect under the circumstances. 

And in the end, this story is roughly equivalent to Jack's getting pulled over at an intersection where people often speed, but  found to be not guilty of speeding. 

Fox News North Seals NDP Majority!

Just to get something out of the way quick.  Jack Layton's been a public figure in Toronto for as long as I've been here, which is over 25 years, and under the public spotlight that long.  This claim is bullshit, though I can't remember if its bullshit I've heard before--years ago--or not. 

And I don't know what the guys at SunTV think they can accomplish with this kind of nonsense.  |Maybe its simply a matter of bumping up their hourly viewing numbers into double-digits.  But you're not going to turn people against the NDP by running this blatent a smear against their leader.

Reality Stomps On Tory Good News Story Of The Day!

Real gross domestic product decreased 0.2% in February following a 0.5% increase in January. Manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, wholesale trade were the main sources of the decline. The decrease in manufacturing resulted in a 0.6% decline in goods-producing industries.

Actually, one months data doesn't mean much, but nevertheless every piece economic good news in the hands of a party that's running on its economic record  is a weapon.  Instead, the last weekend before election 41 Stephen Harper just got handed the equivalent of a bag full of crap. 

Interesting too, that growth going forward is expected to be pretty sub-standard, all based on high-gas prices and a lousy U.S. housing market.  If I were Jack Layton, I might want to let the Tories bleed a little before dropping them and forming the Layton/Rae coalition. 

Or perhaps, because he says he's going to run for something, the Layton/Kinsella coalition.

NDP Wave Hits Ontario

...just in time to make this guy look silly.

The national numbers look increasingly crap for Liberals.  But the Ontario regionals are pretty much saying no majority for Harper as they start shedding votes to, it seems, both LPoC and NDP.  Anyway, cheer up Libs, pain builds character!  And think of what it means for ME.  I've lobbied for those Senate seats (for me and the wife) for ages now, and its all going to heck.  Who'd of thought I should have been sucking up to Jack?  I've already voted this time, but maybe it isn't too late to rename the blog LeftCoast Hipster and get out my old beret.  Just don't make me listen to Pete Seeger.  

Anyway, Libs will always have Moncton:

Shades Of 1990?

Conservative leader Stephen Harper no longer enjoys a comfortable lead ahead of the surging NDP, as a new poll shows the left-leaning party swelling to within just a few points of the reigning Tories.

There are similarities to Bob Rae's surprise victory in Ontario that year: an election nobody wanted, NDP candidates from no-hope ridings who were just phoning it in but found (to their horror in some cases) that they might actually win. 

Probably not, but one argument against that does not convince me is the notion that the absence of a "ground game" will be an impediment in Que. and elsewhere.  I mean gee whiz: all you have to do is stumble down to a polling station. It isn't really that onerous a task.

My Kind Of Canada

Serious.This would be cool.  Iggy gets his gold watch and a one-way bus back ticket to Harvard, and all LPoC Members--not just delegates to some booze and decadence soaked convention--get to choose his successor.  Which will be a less exciting process than you might think, because nobody will apply for the job but Bob Rae.

Coalition Leader Layton ditches that silly "O Canada" for "In-A-Gadda_Da-Vida" or maybe, if he's old school, "Your Land Is My Land" by Woody Guthrie.  And flat-bed trucks full of teamsters patrol the streets, distributing free beer.

Mind you, at the moment I am still predicting a larger Tory Minority.  But a guy can dream.

Michelle Erstikaitis Booted From Moore Campaign

One of the most bizarre incidents of this campaign is right, and first picked up by ARC (and me), who have updated their post as more (bizarre!) information has become available.

Best One-Liner Of Election 41

How true how true.  The volunteers move slower than a bunch of Union guys on coffee break filmed in slow motion.

h/t

On CPoC No Shows

Here's the official explanation from Ryan Sparrow:

We provide support for candidates to participate in candidates debates, but we don't instruct them not to attend debates. Most candidates would prefer to meet with voters one on one though instead of debating their opponents in crowds of committed supporters of the different parties.

And here is the rather extensive list.

PS.  This list first appeared here on the 19th.  It's grown considerably in the meantime.

News From Sri Lanka: Tamil Tigers Support Harper And Hudak!

The Sri Lanka Daily News weighs in on the CPoC problems with Tamil Tiger supporters:

Since the war ended in 2009, remnants of the Tigers' large Canadian support base, based mainly in Toronto, have aligned themselves with the federal Tories and the Ontario Progressive Conservatives.

I suppose, as a LPoC partisan, I should worry that we've lost their support.

PS. I am informed the story quoted is a 100% rehash of this from the G&M.  Clearly, that means the SLDN trusts 'em to tell the truth!

Man Who Provided Financial Assistance To Air India Bombers

...chooses Stephen Harper:

[Ujjal] Dosanjh also said he was surprised that Young would be campaigning with Malik, who has admitted his link to the two men found responsible for the Air India bombing - Inderjit Singh Reyat and the late Talwinder Singh Parmar.

[Ripudaman Singh] Malik was found not guilty of all Air India charges in March 2005, but financially supported Reyat's family for years according to documents filed in both B.C. Supreme Court and Surrey provincal court.

The Perils of courting the ethnic vote.