Jack's Latest Feint

Mr. Layton is in a difficult spot: 12 of his MPs from rural ridings have told their constituents that they will oppose the registry. The votes of those 12 MP, when added to those of the 144 members of the Conservative caucus plus the two independents who normally vote along Conservative lines, would spell the failure of the motion to kill Ms. Hoeppner’s bill.

But Mr. Layton, who represents a downtown Toronto riding, personally supports the registry, as do other members of his caucus from urban constituencies. So he is proposing to introduce his own legislation – possibly in the form of a private-member’s bill – to address rural concerns.

You're kidding? A new bill wouldn't come up for a vote until the registry was dead and gone, so its useless. A private member's bill might never come up, so is less than useless. And, please, can we dispense with this silly argument about how Jack's being "brave" in allowing his back-benchers to "vote their conscience"? What a load of BS; the NDP knows how to march in lock step as well as any party in the Western word. Pretending that they've suddenly discovered the principle of local democracy is just too rich.

Update: Its to be a private member's bill. I've no idea how this is supposed to "stave off" a final vote on Bill C-391, and presumably neither does Jack or anyone else. Is the vote on C-391 supposed to be postponed until Jack's private member's bill slowly rises to the top of the parliamentary queue?

Update 2: Here's how:

Layton was pressed by reporters on how he expects this bill to become a reality, when Hoeppner's bill is lined up for a vote so soon after Parliament resumes. He suggested that if all parties come onside, they could use the bill as a basis to reach a solution — presumably meaning that Hoeppner's bill would either be amended or would die.

So Jack's compromise would require the Tories to *cough cough* dump bill C-391.

Layton Banks On Liberal Senate Killing Bill C-391

...which abolishes the long-gun registry.

Thank you for contacting me about Bill C-391, An Act to amend theCriminal Code and the Firearms Act (repeal of long-gun registry).

As with the Canadian population at large, there are a variety ofopinions on this issue within our party and our caucus. The vote on this Bill at second reading will be a free vote for New Democratic Party MPs.

However, it is clear that the Harper government has botched this issue by choosing to play partisan, political games. They know perfectly well that they can't get C-391 passed in the Senate.

For our part, New Democrats will continue to support laws that will ensure fewer guns on our streets, not more.

Again, thank you for sharing your views on this matter.

Sincerely,

Jack Layton, MP (Toronto-Danforth)
Leader, Canada's New Democrats

What leadership (he said ironically).

Tories Within 5 Votes Of Repealing Gun Registry

NDP MP Niki Ashton has now officially gone over to the dark side. According to the Coalition For Gun Control, there were three NDP and one Liberal in support of Conservative MP Candace Hoeppner’s Private Member’s Bill C-391 as of late September. So now we have four. If Anthony Rota isn't the Liberal the CGC was thinking of, then the Tories are within four votes of the Bill's passing 2nd reading on November 4th.

You want to seal a Harper majority, then let Bill C-391 pass. Tories will get a two % bump as supporters angry with them over whatever return to the fold; Libs will lose similarly as people wonder what use the party is anymore. I don't know what will happen to the NDP; they may be able to justify the move with reference to Hegel's dialectic.

Finally, NDP Begins To Question Jack Layton's Leadership

...on Bill C-391:

Manitoba NDP MP Jim Maloway said he was not consulted by Layton or anyone else on the proposed bill.
"I got a heads-up on Saturday that there would be announcement by the leader Monday morning on the gun registry," said Maloway.

Regardless, said Maloway, he still plans to vote with Hoeppner.

"Nothing there changes my view on the long-gun registry," said Maloway.

He also said Layton's proposal is too little too late.

"This bill just went through committee last spring," said Maloway. "Where were all these amendments at the committee?"

If you read closely here, it sounds as though Maloway is admitting that Layton's new bill will not derail the vote on C-391. Furthermore, read between the lines and it sounds like Maloway is saying that he will not co-operate in the bringing forward of Jack's new "compromise" bill. Looks like the NDP leader has lost control of the debate and his own caucus.

So, is his gun registry stance Jack Layton's worst political mistake in a career that hasn't seen too many of them?

Will Jack Layton Help Tories Kill Long Gun Registry?

From Tory MP and minister of veterans affairs Greg Thompson:

Perhaps nothing illustrates the differences in approach and motivation of the political parties better than the debate on the gun registry. Parliament now has before it Private Members' Bill C-391, which would do away with the long-gun registry but leave in place other parts of licensing requirements and safety regulations with respect to all guns.

...and yada yada yada. We've seen this kind of thing before , with C-301 for example, or the Tories wacky anti-abortion private member's bills. They never go anywhere. Except that this one is coming up for a vote in early November, and it just might. Our dear Brad Trost, Tory MP for Saskatoon-Humboldt, writes

...if most opposition MPs who have pledged to support the legislation keep their word, (and that’s a big if) then the House of Commons should vote to repeal the long-gun registry sometime around November.

The problem, to put it bluntly, lies with the NDP, who intend to let their backbench nobodies "vote their conscience" on the issue. MP Nathan Cullen thinks, given this fact, Bill C-391 will pass and go to committee. Of course, what comes out of committee cannot be known in advance, but it is nevertheless certain that the NDP is giving opponents their best chance in years to kill the registry.

Shame on them.

PS. This alert from the Coalition for Gun Control suggests there is a Liberal recidivist in the mix. I have been assuming that the Libs will whip this vote.

The List: Only 2 To Go To Repeal Gun Registry

Among those supporting Hoeppner's bill are New Democrats Nathan Cullen, Dennis Bevington, Charlie Angus, Niki Ashton, and Carol Hughes, and Liberals Larry Bagnell, Wayne Easter and Anthony Rota.

Everyone knows that the idea of a "private vote" going unwhipped is a lotta hoo-hah. Witness the fact that the Bloc will be opposing Bill C-391 en masse even though many of their MPs are from rural areas. One simply applies the whip in a discreet fashion, under such circumstances, if your party leader is so inclined.

However, I fear The NDP and esp. The Liberals (because a few have suggested this to me privately) see Bill C-391 as a means of getting the Gun Registry issue off the table. So when it finally receives royal assent the Libs. blame NDP dissidents, the NDP blame Liberal Senators, and several billions of $s go down the tubes. But, on the other hand, the rurals out in boonyville put away their pitchforks for the time-being.

PS. Meanwhile some NDPers are apparently angry that the Tories are still mistreating them even after they have caved on the issue. For example , NDP groveller Charlie Angus whines graphically he describes his mistreatment at Tory hands even though he has totally fucking debased himself for them.

Respond, Iggy

Yesterday, we noted that The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is trying to pressure the opposition parties to appoint anti-gun registry MPs to the committee that will consider a bill (C-391) to kill the registry when Parliament resumes in March. They argue that, since a majority in the House passed the bill once, the committees that consider its further progress should reflect this fact. Today, the Winnipeg Free Press has picked up the story, and we learn the CTF position is also that of the Harper Torys.

More importantly, the Free Press has attempted to contact the opposition parties to ask if they are going to play along:

A spokesman for NDP Leader Jack Layton said the NDP has no plans to change their appointee to the committee. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's office did not respond when asked for comment.

I sometimes get the impression that the LPoC brain trust, while paying lip-service to the registry for the benefit of hardcore Liberal supporters (who support it), would really like to see it die quietly in the night so as to be off the table as an election issue in rural Canada. Not responding to this kind of query only exacerbates that impression.

Whereas, I am convinced, fighting C-391 in committee and in the Senate can still kill it. What are the odds that Harper and Co. will go another year without proroguing again, thus resetting the clock on all of their legislation? Given their recent behavior, I would say those odds are pretty high.

(I am also about half-convinced that this is one of those pieces of legislation that the Tories don't really want to ever be signed into law. But that's another post)

A Few Year End Thoughts

But few, and brief, because I'm feeling a bit lazy this morning.

In the face of polls that are essentially stagnant, fans of the LPoC should remind themselves of the victories they've managed to salvage in 2010.

First off, the Harper Government's only real attempt at altering the fabric of Canadian society--Bill C-391 to repeal the long-gun registry--failed. And, not only did it fail, its failure seems to have taken the wind out of further Conservative efforts to destroy the registry. No assurances obviously, that the Harper gang won't campaign yet again on a repeal during some hypothetical Spring election campaign, but I sense a certain deflation of spirits among their faithful. For example, no less a personage than newly minted Conservative MP Julian Fantino suggested after the defeat of C-391 that it was time to move on.

What was particularly satisfying about the gun registry debate is that, as the tooing and fro-ing came to a head, polls showed a strong swing in favour of retaining the registry. This demonstrates that progressive values can still win out in our fair land if progressives are willing to fight for them.

Also, even though many Lib partisans are not particular happy with our new Afghan mission (me among them), and even though the party's strategy and tactics in the run-up to the vote on that mission were substandard, in the end I think you have to chock this one up as a win for Michael Ignatieff in that the defections in party ranks that everyone was predicting simply did not materialize. If one test of leadership is the ability to keep your troops in line, Iggy has passed this test on several occasions during the past year.

Now, as for next Spring:

Barring a total climb-down by Prime Minister Stephen Harper on all of his major priorities, the Liberal Party will oppose the Conservative government’s budget, Michael Ignatieff says, greatly increasing the likelihood of an election call in February or March.

Well, its good to know that Iggy thinks the party is ship-shape for another campaign, and god knows they're alot more fun than watching the clown-show during question period, but I suspect this is still mostly bluster: the Libs will be able to negotiate enough out of Mr. Harper to find a means of supporting the 2011 budget. Or the NDP, who have had a rough couple of months, will. Or Mr. Harper will fly a plane over Quebec and shovel loads of English money out the side, and thus secure the Bloc's support.

No. I'm still betting on 2012.

Bill C-391 Stalled?

Looks like it. You can read the story through the link for a sense of the whole procedural song and dance, but bottom line is that Mark Holland's motion seems to have thrown a spanner into the works:

If Holland's motion is defeated, the bill is referred to report stage and then amendments can be introduced. After that, the bill goes on to third reading.

"Everything hinges on this concurrence motion," [Tory MP] Dave MacKenzie said. "Nothing can happen until that vote occurs."

And MacKenzie said it's unlikely the vote will occur before summer recess.

Go Mark Holland.

Although, if this rumor is true and we are heading for a government-triggered fall election, it would make sense for the Tories to stall their own bill so as to run on it again.

A Whipped Lib. Vote On The Gun Registry?

“Let me be perfectly clear: the Liberal Party opposes the Conservative government’s effort to scrap the gun registry altogether and we will vote against the Hoeppner bill at third reading in the House of Commons,” said Mr. Ignatieff. “Instead, we’re proposing sensible changes that address the legitimate concerns of our rural caucus, while upholding the integrity of the gun registry.”

If this means that the Lib caucus will be made to show up for the vote, and made to vote no on C-391, then kudos. If it means less than that, then I call Bullshit.

As for the proposed reforms, which involve streamlining the system, decrimalizing first time offences, and waiving fees--they're all fine and hopefully will appease the concerns of Liberals from rural ridings. But at the end of the day there has to be a registry there to reform.

Update: CTV interprets this statement to mean that the Lib. caucus will be required to vote against C-391.

The Mask Slips (Again)

From Scott Armstrong:

TRURO – Scott Armstrong, Conservative Candidate in the Cumberland – Colchester – Musqoudoboit Valley by-election, is pleased the Conservative Bill (C-391) to end the long-gun registry passed its first vote in the House of Commons last night.

But of course, officially, it isn't a Gov. bill. But of course, unofficially, it is.

In Which We Assist Mr. Kramp.

What Mr. Kramp said the radio said:

What the radio said:

Kramp, as if to highlight the urban-rural divide, issued a statement on his Twitter account, saying he was feeling sorry for himself, since many of his friends are in hunting camps this week, his son-in-law had just bagged a bear, and he was in Ottawa [debating Bill C-391].

You stay classy, Daryl Kramp.

NDP Feeling Heat Over Gun Registry?

As Imp notices, Jack Layton is no longer "ruling out" whipping the New Democrat caucus over the final vote on Bill C-391. Hardly definitive language, but encouraging. Now that the NDP no longer has dissident Liberal MPs to hide behind, the hot potato lands in their lap, and I think they will look awful (at least to the progressive voters they share with the Libs.) if they allow Harper and Co. to pass this measure.

Which is why I think Iggy's laying the discipline on his own gang is good politics, even if the registry is repealed in the end. And even if you're a gun registry opponent that otherwise supports the LPoC: I mean, personal feelings aside, why would you not want somebody else to take the blame for its demise?

What Happens With The Long-Gun Registry?

According to Cowboys, given how prorogation resets all the clocks, its probably still alive into 2011. His conclusion: The Harper government doesn't really want it to pass. This is something I've suspected about many of the govs.' bills--they're there to keep the faithful agitated, not to actually become law. This one? Well, I don't know anymore. You can't keep promising the same thing forever, can you? If you keep ringing the bell, but don't ever provide the doggy snacks, doesn't the conditioning eventually wear off?

PS. No, Bill C-391 does not die. I know that. The various delays it is now subject to now put passage either at way the end of next year or into 2011.

New Poll On Gun Registry

Twice as many Canadians (59 per cent) say the registration of rifles and shotguns should be maintained compared to those who say it should be scrapped (27 per cent). In every province but Manitoba and Saskatchewan more people support the registry than oppose it. The poll also shows that women support the gun registry (66 per cent) compared to men (51 per cent). More people living with gun owners (47 per cent) support the registry than oppose it (36 per cent) and a substantial proportion of gun owners (36 per cent) actually support the registry (versus 59 per cent opposed). The opponents may be louder and better financed, but among households with guns in Canada, votes are almost evenly split. Many politicians from rural areas seem to forget that women vote too.

All right, the Coalition for Gun Control commissioned the poll, but the detailed results are here, and to these non-expert eyes the questions don't look like they've been torqued. Its also a pretty big (1,506) sample. Maybe, as D-Day gets draws closer (bill C-391 may be up for a June vote), minds are beginning to focus, and change.

Food for thought, anyhow.

Kady O'Malley Is NOT DEAD!

As you may have read earlier today, CBC's Kady O'Malley, in heroically covering the oily maneuverings leading up to tonight's totally fucking historic vote on Bill C-391, took a dive down a flight of stairs just after the vote itself. In the confusion that reigned afterwards, terrible rumors circulated that Ms. O'Malley had gone the way of Gordon Lightfoot, or would at least need a prosthetic arm. These rumors went nowhere; I couldn't find Akin's email address.

But in any case, I have just been informed that Kady is fine, though the limb may need an ice-pad if not a replacement.

You may return to your frenzied celebrations. Remember its just Wednesday, and you have to work tomorrow.

Wayne LaPierre Is Sooo Happy

As my friend and colleague Dave Kopel, research director of the Independence Institute in Colorado, astutely noted, "Repeal of the Canadian registry would be of tremendous global significance. Repeal would also shatter the claim by the Canadian gun prohibition lobby that gun control in Canada is an irreversible ratchet."

This is huge on the world stage and made all the more significant as a backdrop in the pending debate on the United Nations' global gun ban.

Wayne LePierre, author of the above, is EVP of the National Rifle Association. It's worth noting that he thinks Bill C-391 will pass 3rd reading with roughly the same votes it got last time around.

Will Inky Mark Defer His Retirement To Help Pass Bill C-391 Repealing The Gun Registry?

Nah. Probably not, though there's a petition asking him to. Its got a whole 126 signatures. (But if it does happen, tell folks you heard it here first.)

Speaking of stupid petitions: there's also that one calling for a repeal of section 13 of the CHRA that I wrote about back in April . Remember? It was high profile stuff; Tory Senator Doug Finley was going to present it to Parliament when it reached 100,000 signatures. So far they're stuck at 336.

And then there's the Fox News North Facebook page, which has a whopping 1,609 followers.

Anyway, I forget what my point was.

Trost On The Long Gun Registry

If this is how the maneuvering went, then good on Jack Layton:

At first, C-301 looked like it was going to pass the House of Commons. With 143 Conservative votes, Garry’s bill needed less than a dozen votes from independent and Opposition MPs to become law. Supporters of C-301 received assurances from rural Opposition MPs that we had the necessary votes to pass the legislation.

However, two things started to happen: NDP members began to be pressured by their leadership (Jack Layton) not to vote the way they had promised; and the Bloc Quebecois brought forward a motion on the long-gun registry in the House of Commons.

While the Bloc motion supporting the long-gun registry passed the House, it only passed by five votes because of abstentions from Opposition MPs (who had previously said they sided with the Conservatives.)

I say "if" because Trost seems to be pretending that C-391 has a hope in hell with a Lib. dominated Senate, and it does not, so he is clearly prone to erroneous statements.

(PS. "Trost" is Brad Trost is the Tory MP representing the riding of Saskatoon—Humboldt.)

On Being Whipped

MP Glen Pearson on the gun registry vote:

In the rush to get to our caucus meeting on Wednesday, I rode in an elevator with two Conservative MPs from urban ridings, both complaining of being whipped to vote against the gun registry. It was hardly a moment of revelation, as we’ve known for months that Conservatives are divided on the issue. A few hours later, when in a particularly brutal QP John Baird upbraided the Liberal leader for whipping his team to vote for the registry, I watched a number of government members on the other side stare blankly, knowing that Baird and others had done exactly the same thing with them.

So we know where the two major parties are on the issue: they will in effect be treating C-391 as a government bill and instructing their MPs accordingly. What about the NDP? Whether the registry lives or dies now rests with them. Will they bring their folks into line to save it? After a few encouraging words back in April, Mr. Layton has gone silent. Let's see what's going on at the NDP website.

Ah yes! They're calling for Peace in The Mid-East. When it comes to advocating causes affecting the other side of the planet, these guys are always out in front.