Friday, November 02, 2007

You Can Run, But You Can't Hide

...your lousy poll results forever, National Post/Ipsos Reid.

"The survey, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, said the Tories have the support of 39 per cent of respondents, the same percentage as it got the previous week. The Liberals inched up one point to 28 per cent, the NDP dropped four points to 13 per cent, and the Green party slipped one point to seven per cent."

And this after another point shaved from the GST? But what can we do to make Canadians love us? Conservatives must be thinking. Sixty Billion Bucks isn't enough to buy their votes!

Especially in Quebec, where they appear to have tanked:

In Quebec, the scene is volatile. The Bloc Quebecois moved to 50 per cent, up 16 points from the previous survey. The Conservative remained in second spot at 22 per cent, down eight points from last week. The Liberals crept up one point to 17 per cent, while the NDP fell six points to seven per cent.

A plunge that is, if not quite outside the margin of error, than pretty close to the door to the outside of the margin of error.

13 comments:

ottlib said...

In general most polling companies have an MOE of around 6% for the Quebec and Ontario estimates.

So that decrease is statistically significant.

My question is if they have decreased that much in Quebec but the national number has not changed where did they make up the support?

Since, any big increase in Ontario would be trumpeted from the rooftops I am assuming they increased their support in Alberta.

So they have gone from 50% to 60%. Too bad there is no way they can transfer that support to other parts of the country.

Anonymous said...

Polls, polls, well this one shows the NDP losing points,ans so they should as they are the one who know say we need are heading in the wrong direction, but they you should always be reminded they lost what little credibility they had when they handed over the keys to buses to Harper who a very cunning, egomaniac who like to control...............in this house all of the big tax cut amount to just about enough to pay for the increase in the gas prices, the bus pass, so what, it still does change who Harper and his boys are, arrogant and drunk on the thought of getting total power of all.

Anonymous said...

Here's what I see

41% said "two thumbs up" to the economic update
43% said they were unmoved
only 8% of Canadians said the economic update was bad.

"Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid, said the results suggest the opposition parties are barking up the wrong tree with their criticism of Flaherty's tax cuts, especially the GST."

New poll:
Tories 39%
Libs 28%
NDP 13%
Green 7%

Not sure what the Bloc numbers are but there is probably 5-6% undecided, you have to think that the Tories would pick up at least 2% maybe 3%. I wouldn't be too proud of these numbers if I was a Lib.

Looking down my nose said...

Unless Dion is ousted by his own party before the next election the next election will result in an electoral sea change like the one that produced the Chretien majority of 1993 or the Mulroney majority of 1984.

Need I say who's turn it is this time to be thumped unless Dion is dumped?

Anonymous said...

Haven't heard from SES for a while - waiting for that one.

One should never take anything for granted - remember in the US the pollsters/journalists were so sure that Dewey would win they had the front page "Dewey Wins" printed and sent out early - but, Dewey lost.

Anonymous said...

Ipsos Reid is an online polling company and their polls are garbage. They may be ok for consumer polls on your favorite fast food company if you only want the oppinion of those on line, but for political polls they are meaningless, open to abuse and fraud and dont sample a random portion of the population just those on line hwo want to participate.

Utter bunk, why even link to them.

Ti-Guy said...

Unless Dion is ousted by his own party before the next election the next election will result in an electoral sea change like the one that produced the Chretien majority of 1993 or the Mulroney majority of 1984.

Need I say who's turn it is this time to be thumped unless Dion is dumped?


Why do most Conservatives sound like the crazy mother in Sybil?

looking down my nose said...

Earth to ti-guy et al,

Why does Ti-guy, Red Tory a.k.a Liberal Supporter and the rest of the cronies at RT think that it's only so-called conservative trolls who've written off Dion.

Ti-guy as an off the top example read Gil Courtemanche in today's La Presse - a Liberal leaning newspaper - where he mercilessly pummels Dion and despairs at where he's taking the Liberal party. Reports of dump Dion rumours abound. But Ti-guy and RT just plug their collective ears and pretend they can wish the real world away.

Ti-guy the word that comes to mind is pathetic. As for Red Tory, his credibility is about the same as Dion since he became the Great Abstainer.

I thought blogs were to keep people informed. But I see that for some they serve as repositories for the deluded.

Ti-Guy said...

Ti-guy as an off the top example read Gil Courtemanche in today's La Presse - a Liberal leaning newspaper - where he mercilessly pummels Dion and despairs at where he's taking the Liberal party.

Frankly, I couldn't care less what Quebecers have to say about federal politics anymore; they've all become incoherent. But, in any case, doesn't Gil Courtemanche write for Le Devoir?

In any case...I couldn't find the article to which you refer.

Looking down my nose said...

" But, in any case, doesn't Gil Courtemanche write for Le Devoir?"

My mistake - indeed he does, I meant Le Devoir and his article "Le roi est nu" is linked on the front page online.

And Ti-guy: maybe you don't give a rat's ass about Quebecers' views of federal politics but your party surely does, and right now they have strangely given up the field in Quebec at a time when the sovereignist tide is ebbing. Harper may get his majority in Quebec. Who'd a thunk it?

Ti-Guy said...

Well, Le Devoir is certainly not a Liberal leaning paper, that's for sure, so I don't know where you were going with that.

Anyway, as far as his article goes, I wanted to stop reading here:

John Diefenbaker, médiocre politicien de province lointaine, possédait une hargne et un entêtement qui, un temps, envoûtèrent les Canadiens et même les Québécois qui riaient de son accent ridicule lorsqu'il prononçait un mot en français.

...but I stopped here:

Stéphane Dion n'existe pas. Il est comme le roi nu dont toute la cour se moque en cachette, regardant ailleurs, espérant qu'il disparaisse, qu'il soit frappé d'une maladie foudroyante.

Sounds like a Bloggin' Toree "Notaleader!" post. I'm surprised he didn't call Dion une grande tapette. Ya...hawn.

And Ti-guy: maybe you don't give a rat's ass about Quebecers' views of federal politics but your party surely does, and right now they have strangely given up the field in Quebec at a time when the sovereignist tide is ebbing. Harper may get his majority in Quebec. Who'd a thunk it?

I realised years ago that the narrow nationalists in Alberta and Québec would find common cause. I basically don't care what either of those groups think about federal politics, because they undermine federalism every chance they get.

It's like provincial politics, which is really where their sensibilities are appropriate, are too bush-league for their giant egos.

Looking down my nose said...

"Well, Le Devoir is certainly not a Liberal leaning paper, that's for sure, so I don't know where you were going with that." An honest mistake, as I said before.

Anyhow all I can say is 101 or 103 seats is a lot to write off especially when Dion should be able to score some points in his home province. The guy backed Meech Lake and the Quebecois are a nation resolution.

Ti-Guy said...

"Well, Le Devoir is certainly not a Liberal leaning paper, that's for sure, so I don't know where you were going with that." An honest mistake, as I said before.

Not so honest, in my opinion. You were so desperate to fit Courtemanche's views into a narrative of Liberal critique that Le Devoir all of sudden became a Liberal-friendly newspaper.

Whatever. Pandering to Québec nationalists will never work for federal politics, as Mulroney learned when he caused the creation of the Bloc Québécois and as Harper will probably end up learning as well, though probably before he gets a chance to take advantage of it.

Responding to the aspirations of Québec nationalists through federal/provincial negotiation and respect for each level of government's sphere of influence is always possible, but that's an issue of good governance (something the Harpies know nothing about), not politics.