Wednesday, January 09, 2008

No Federal Election In 2008

Huron-Bruce MP Paul Steckle doesn't think he'll be able to retire this year:

He doesn't foresee an issue in the near future that will unite opposition parties and topple the Conservative government...

...and with the Tories even to down a few points in most recent polls, I can't see them going out of their way to pick a big fight. Rather, I see them flying the CPoC helicopter over Montreal and Quebec city around budget time and shovelling money out the side. I see them passing legislation of make the Habs the Stanley Cup winners in perpetuity.

Remember Gille's Duceppe's stirring words last March:

We will support this budget because it gives more money to Quebec in equalization payments.

Expect similarly elevated rhetoric this year.

The only possible wild-card in this scenario is the Afghanistan. Given popular sentiment at the moment, and the fact that Dion and the rest of the oppo parties are lined up with popular sentiment against the extension of the mission, I see either the Tories 1) caving outright, or 2) trying to "rag the puck" into 2009 when Canada's practical ability to extract our army by the end of the year will decrease to zero. Since the latter option means our troops are still dying in 2010, which presumably must be an election year, I suspect we will see a parliamentary vote this Spring that brings the curtain down on our current mission in Afghanistan, and the government of the day will not treat this vote as a matter of confidence.

PS. I noted that Chantal Hébert argues in her column today that public opinion is "divided" on the question of our role in Afghanistan. Well, yes that is true. They are divided into one very large group that opposese the extension of the mission, and a very small group that supports it. Here's hoping Dion listens to the very large group.

23 comments:

Wayne said...

There is a set election date, why don't we just wait until then.

Ti-Guy said...

This government's just going to get worse; the only answers they for anything are blame and deflection. They're also stupid on the issues I thought they'd be pretty good at...fiscal probity and accountability.

I shudder to think how they'd handle a real crisis, especially one they couldn't blame on anyone else. I imagine many instances of loss of bowel control and many "deer caught in the headlights of an oncoming car" stares from the these frat boys, titsy ditzes, doughy pantloads, used-car salesmen, oleaginous courtiers and rednecks.

Bring down the government as soon as possible.

Anonymous said...

ti-guy, don't forget they're also mean, unfair, prejudiced, evangelical neocon warmongering deniers.

Ti-Guy said...

Will do, Biff.

Anonymous said...

The fact that no one is bringing up Afghanistan as a flash point means one of the two sides is perparing to cave. Given that anyone who supports extending the mission has only one party to vote for it seems more likely that the Liberals will cave and citing that it is not fair to abandon the people of Kandahar because Harper was unable to find another country to rotate in.

What do the Liberals possibly have to gain in fighting an election over Afghanistan when Layton is demanding the troops home now, Harper advocates staying the course and their position is some hypothetical about a non-combat reconstruction role? If the election is about Afghanistan, they will need to clarify their deliberately vague position.

bigcitylib said...

Actually, anon 1:28, the Libs just said today that the military mission should end in 09. I've linked in the main post.

wilson said...

Liberals stayed in power by dividing regions and groups, creating problems needing fixing.

Libs kept the separtists alive so as to keep putting out the fire.

PMSH has united the country.

Libs had women believing that PMSH would 'take away their rights'. That didn't happen, in fact, Cons are fighting for Native women's rights and it is the Libs that are opposing.

Women now see that it is Conservatives who support ALL women, and don't pick fights with select womens groups,
as the Libs do.

No wonder Libs are desperately trying to hang on to the women's vote.
Oct 2007 poll showed that Libs only attract 24% of the decided male vote,
and they have no divisive issue to scare women with, so as to keep women voting for them.

Poverty, Afghanistan and Global Warming are not women's issues.

In keeping with Liberal ways, I predict Lib platform:

Enviro file will hit Alberta (and it's easy money) and farmers hard,
and insulate Ontario and Quebec and Maritimes from the hit.

Poverty file will support urban dwellers and ignore rural areas (because their is no poverty in rural areas)

Divide the nation into east vs west, and rural vs urban.
That is the Liberal way.
Un-unite the country.

Ti-Guy said...

Jesus, I thought that obnoxious troll Wilson had died or something.

Anonymous said...

Remember Gille's Duceppe's stirring words last March:

We will support this budget because it gives more money to Quebec in equalization payments.


Politicians don't talk like this, so I checked the article to see if he actually said that. Sure enough, he didn't, the Star did:

Thanks to the support of the Bloc Québécois, Harper's Conservative minority will likely survive a confidence vote, even though the Liberals and the New Democrats oppose the Tories' second budget.

"We will support this budget" because it gives more money to Quebec in equalization payments, Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe told reporters.


Note quotation marks.

Bad BCL!

Anonymous said...

"Actually, anon 1:28, the Libs just said today that the military mission should end in 09. I've linked in the main post."

The Liberal position is based entirely on the premise that if we tell NATO we're leaving someone will step up and move in. If that happens, good. What if that doesn't happen? Are they going to leave Kandahar? Are they going to order Canadian troops to stay on the base and let the people fend for themselves while the troops train everyone? What exactly does the proposal for our military to "protect Afghan civilians" mean? Are they simply going to patrol or is it another word for counter-insurgency?

From the article you linked to, the Liberal proposal seems like it is worded so both the hawks and doves in the party can be happy with it. It doesn't seem worded to force an election. If anything, it would seem to be worded to avoid one.

Anonymous said...

Why are liberals always such whiny cowards? What skin off your nose is it if a bunch of knuckle-draggers want to go die in some foreign country? Won't that mean fewer neocons left to procreate in Canada? Whenever the troops are somewhere, you always want them somewhere ELSE, helping somebody else. But when we get there to help that poor somebody else and the shooting starts, you always cry PEACEKEEPING ONLY! And then demand that they leave, as you've said all along.

frank said...

anon 5:50 :

It was the liberals that sent the troops over there.

andrew said...

Hi BCL,

More Quebec-bashing from BCL and the Liberal party of Canada, this is becoming a regular feature.

Oh and polls. Decima poll just came out today Jan 3-6:

Conservatives 37

Liberals 30

Like that political genius ti-guy says : Bring down the government as soon as possible. I remind you folks, that that is a Decima poll. (The Tories are probably close to 40.)

Come on you guys, we all know Dion does not have the balls to do that.

His preferred course is all talk, no action and dithering about what should be his next priority which he says is not easy.

Ti-Guy said...

Great comment, Biff!

andrew said...

Conservatives 37 Liberals 30.

Dion is really catching fire. Not.

That Mulroney- Schreiber thing is really is affecting the government. Not.

The Liberals are par with the Tories. Not.(Nobody beleived that, even the Liberal operatives.)

Do you think that yellow-bellied Dion is going to take the government down? Do pigs fly

bigcitylib said...

Andrew,

Yeah, people like the Tories better when they go away for a month.

Ti-Guy said...

Doesn't Andrew-Biff do this every time the Tories are up in *a* poll?

I'm surprised he didnt' type "polling in majority territory," but maybe the new butt-plug is causing him to be distracted.

I did an informal poll of two typical Conservatives I know...neither one had heard of the CNSC/AECL issue (one of them didn't even know either body existed).

...there's your Tory lead right there.

andrew said...

Look guys, don't shoot the messenger, the poll says what it says. 30%, what the Liberals got last election, has basically been their ceiling since then. They've polled down to 26-28 and as low as 22 in one.

BCL has one explanation, ti-guy another. But let's not kid ourselves, Dion is keeping the Liberals mired by making himself the issue. His leaderhip credibility is like a millstone around the Liberal party's neck.

And with poll numbers like the one that came out today, does anyone really think that that will help Dion grow a spine? Methinks he'll be sitting on his hands for quite some time. He'll keep drawing and re-drawing lines in the sand until no one, not a one, will be listening to what he has to say, except for his dog Kyoto.

Ti-Guy said...

...the poll says what it says. 30%, what the Liberals got last election, has basically been their ceiling since then.

They've polled higher very recently.

They've polled down to 26-28 and as low as 22 in one.

Is that the poll that's vying for space with the butt-plug in your colon?

ti-guy another.

What explanation did I venture?

You're such a Tory-Tard, Andrew-Biff. Lie, lie, lie, lie, lie and lie.

andrew said...

From a CTV news report updated at 7:30 today:

"Liberal Leader Stephane Dion seemed markedly less eager Wednesday to force a quick election than he was only a month ago.


He said his party doesn't intend to try to introduce a confidence vote before the next budget in February or March.


"I have no plan to do so for now,'' he said.


And he repeatedly refused to "speculate'' on whether the Liberals will bring down the government over the budget, saying he'll wait to evaluate its contents.


Dion's non-committal responses were in stark contrast to his apparent eagerness in December for an election early in 2008. At that time, he appeared to be setting the stage for a winter or spring election, warning that Liberals, who abstained on confidence matters throughout the fall, would not continue to prop up the government for much longer.


"2008 will be another ball game,'' he said then. "You cannot keep alive forever a government who wants to die.''"

2008, same old bravado followed by weasly backtracking, all spoken with his usual incoherent english.

Look you guys, would someone get a putsch going a.s.a.p., I mean I vote Conservative but I like a fair fight.

Liberal and worried said...

I can't beleive that Dion said that today. Does he have nobody advising him? It makes him look like a yellow-bellied coward and a dunce to boot. This truly is a depressing start to the New Year.

Andrew please stick to the topic on the thread and spare us your digressions.

Name withheld said...

Liberal and worried:

You're right to be worried. Dion is no longer a rookie, but he's clearly not growing on the job. As for advisors, you can't expect them to be ventriloquists which is pretty well what Dion needs.

We pretty well have to pray that Harper screws up, as lame as that sounds. But that's about all we've got.

Andrew said...

Knock it off, sock-puppets. I work alone.