Sunday, April 17, 2011
A Harper Majority--A Fractured Country?
Warren's column this morning gives an idea of what we might expect out of a CPoC majority, but I think he's missing something: the next Que. provincial government is likely to be Separatist. Given that the Harperites traffic in divisive rhetoric, and their party platform includes a number of measures (repeal of the gun registry, elimination of the per vote subsidy) that are vastly unpopular in that province...do you really want these guys governing unchecked over the ROC in advance of another referendum? Look what happened last time.
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9 comments:
you're absolutely right. Pauline Marois, by some miracle, came out of her leadership review yesterday with 93% of the vote. No one expected that to happen.
The PQ under Marois, have made it clear that no matter who's in Ottawa when they come into power, will have major head-aches, as they will be demanding more powers.
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/plans+make+next+life+hard/4619561/story.html
Marois is an extremist. I wouldn't put anything past her. However, there is one slim hope for Charest. It was decided in the PQ leadership review that their program would indeed expand Bill 101 to CEGEPs and trade schools. Most in Quebec, while they support the basics of 101, don't support the expansion to post-secondary education. However, don't count on that to be enough for folks to come out en masse on election day to hold their nose to give Charest another mandate.
The worst government you could have when the separatists are in power provincially would be the Liberals.
We almost lost the country in 1995.
Outside of Montreal, where the threat of separation is strongest, Liberals continue to be hated.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995
Outside of Montreal, where the threat of separation is strongest, Liberals continue to be hated.
Because of the 1995 Referendum?Really? In the 2000 election, the Liberals got 44% to the Blocs 39.9% and took almost half the seats. This also a few months after the Clarity Act. The party has also been second in the subsequent elections except for the 2006 one. (The Sponsorship scandal probably accounts for this more than the referendum.)
The rise and fall of Liberal support inside Quebec are probably similar to the reasons outside the province.
If Quebec separates, a conservative party would be more likely to be elected with majorities. The rest of Canada is more right-wing than Quebec.
Of course, if the Conservatives were the party in power when Quebec separates they would be a big vote loser and crash and burn in the next general election. But a right-wing party could reform from the remnants of the Conservative party, and win majorities in the ROC over the long haul.
The Conservatives can afford to lose Quebec.
"But a right-wing party could reform from the remnants of the Conservative party"
That already happened once. It won't happen again.
However, don't count on that to be enough for folks to come out en masse on election day to hold their nose to give Charest another mandate.
Maybe a minority PQ government would be enough to derail the separatism agenda.
Anyway, some of the things they discussed during their policy review seem a bit extreme. I wonder if some of this might be postering to get soft Quebec nationalism votes back from the NDP.
A minority government in Quebec is unlikely, since the ADQ has virtually collapsed to about 10% support.
Last time they got 7 seats with 16%, so there's a good chance they'll be wiped out entirely (regional differences in support might save some seats, I've not studied this in any depth)
Reality Bites.... Dang. You're probably right.
Next election will be tough for the LPQ as they would be seeking a 4th term in office, and that's tough even if your government is somewhat popular.
However the Charest government has two things going for it, first is Charest has actually been wining any of these corruption cases flying around (though in the end that may not matter much, the damage is done regardless). The second is Pauline Marois may be popular with the PQ faithful, but the Quebec voters don't share that enthusiasm. She's actually a drag on the party's numbers.
One wildcard that's in the realm of real possibilities, that Charest resigns and LPQ finds a popular leader to take over. That could change everything quickly.
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