TORONTO, OCTOBER 23, 2013 ‐ In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1859 Canadians 18 years of age and older, almost 4‐in‐10 would vote Liberal if an election were held today (39%), compared to just 3‐in‐10 who would support the Conservatives (30%). Fewer than a fifth would vote NDP (19%), and fewer than a tenth would opt for the Bloc Quebecois (7%), the Green Party (4%) or any other party (1%). These findings represent a widening of the gap between the two leading parties, from 5 points last month to 9 points this month. The Liberals are favoured by older voters (55 to 64 ‐ 45%), the least wealthy (43%) and the wealthy ($80K to $100K ‐ 43%), in the Atlantic provinces (56%), among the best educated (post grad ‐ 47%), non‐Christians (47%) and among those of non‐European ethnicity (48%). Of note, one third of those who voted NDP in the last election will vote Liberal this time (33%), as will just fewer than one fifth of past Conservative voters (17%)
Note that Justin pulls a lot from the 2011 NDP, and some from the 2011 CPC vote. SO he is able to fish in both ponds. Not sure how previous Forum polls chopped the numbers, but it also looks like the LPC might own the largest chunk of the "not born in Canada" vote, which they've been fighting for with the CPC over the past couple of years.
PS. This poll may have come out last week, but since I got nothin' else this morning, I will leave the post up.