Thursday, August 05, 2010
What's Behind The Liberal Rebound?
Is it the census debacle? Maybe a little, in that its provided the Tories nothing but a month of bad news. Is it Iggy's summer tour? Maybe a little, in that the tour has provided Iggy with probably the most positive media coverage he's had since he became leader, and its always nice to have a captive bus-load of reporters before which to denounce the government's stupidity of the day.
But I think this
...is the elephant in the room, especially the last couple of data points where the line stops pointing up. Economic growth has not only slowed since March, its done so quite a bit faster than the Bank of Canada predicted. Now, our job numbers have been pretty good, but these tend to lag other indicators. Probably a fair whack of them were added on the assumption that the U.S. economy would pick up and we'd need those bodies to build stuff to sell to them. That assumption has not panned out. So who knows how long before they start being reversed? Maybe as soon as the employment report tomorrow. If not, then eventually: a more or less flat economy does not generate full-time positions for very long.
Anyway, I suspect people have looked around and discovered that things haven't got much better in the past six months or so.
Latest EKOS result here.