Next comes the impact on the Conservatives' hoped-for majority. Suddenly it's not a dozen extra seats required, but two dozen. A much taller order.
I frankly trust the PG people more than your typical journo but, unfortunately, there's this:
Also in the mix is the impact on the Liberal Party's likely succession planning, soon or in the future. With Martin Cauchon out of the game, and now probably Justin Trudeau as well, will the party have anyone to turn towards, and will anyone want the now-truly-serious rebuilding job.
The LPoC has, it seems to me, always been more about pragmatics then passion. If re-tooling looks like a long, miserable process, will the party rise to the task or will its members drift towards the NDP or CPoC according to their own individual political compasses? Ed Broadbent during an election campaign long ago once argued that it would be more natural for Canadian politics to align along a natural Left/ Right axis, with the Liberals kind of fading away in the middle. Hopefully, this will not come to pass. But, certainly, the balance of power in any post election merger talks will shift, should these results hold up.
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Ed Broadbent during an election campaign long ago once argued that it would be more natural for Canadian politics to align along a natural Left/ Right access, with the Liberals kind of fading away in the middle. Hopefully, this will not come to pass. But, certainly, the balance of power in any post election merger talks will shift, should these results hold up.
Canada's one of the few countries where a party manages to straddle the divide between Left and Right. Honestly, I'd be very sad to see it go.
But in the end, Liberals might get the last laugh on this. The Conservatives under Stephen Harper are more moderate than Harper would probably like it to be. It's the price of being in power. The same would happen to the NDP (see the NDP in Saskatchewan -- where they lowered business taxes). Government's hard. It's easier to pretend that they would be better in power, but the reality is different.
"see the NDP in Saskatchewan -- where they lowered business taxes"
That's not a realistic example. The NDP also nationalized the Potash industry and bankrupted farmers who believed them about potatoes.
If you're going to pick cherries, at least be somewhat objective.
The NDP was facing sever competition from the Sask Party, so in their last three budgets they reduced personal and business taxes and reduced the mining + oil and gas exploration and development costs.
This _really_ angered the NDP base but they weren't playing for them. This was an attempt to shore up the centrists and stem the SP tide.
It didn't work, but to claim that it is exemplary of the NDP policy borders on lying. 3/13 centrist budgets does not a centrist make.
Cheers,
lance
This _really_ angered the NDP base but they weren't playing for them. This was an attempt to shore up the centrists and stem the SP tide.
That's sort of my point. When a party is in government, they end up doing things that takes their base by surprise. Take this Ontario example -- the NDP campaigned on ending food banks in Ontario, and creating public auto insurance, but when they got into power, they did neither. Why? Successful public campaigns, bad optics. Anyway, believing one's party won't end up making these little compromises, that they will do everything they said they will when they were in opposition -- you're just going to get your heart broken.
I don't get the bit about Justin Trudeau... from all accounts the Dippers are drawing the surge in support from nationalist BQ voters I don't see how that really affects Trudeau since I doubt they're drawing from the same pool of support.
Sure it kinda cuts Cauchon out at the knees since he's running against Murclair but he was already behind there anyways.
Regardless I think (Quebec voters) they get cold feet by election day anyways. a revert at least partially to more familier voting patterns.
JF,
Dunno where, but I thought I heard Justin was in tough as well.
It was a close race in his riding, Papineau. He won by less than 1200 votes. Right now he's been campaigning across the country -- he's an article from BC. He's confident... maybe too confident. (This is one way I wish he weren't like his dad. :P. )
I was in Montréal a couple times just after the election call, and was immediately surprised by the visibility of the NDP - or, rather, Jack. They have a different sign culture there - none of those tacky street corners with disorderly ad hock stuff stuck on crappy wooden posts. It's very professional looking - aesthetic even. And right at the start, all down the main boulevards, you could see the alternating smiling faces of Duceppe and Layton. I lived in Montreal and spend quite a bit of time there, and have never seen anything like that. Almost no Liberal or Conservative signs on the main boulevards, either.
Was also in Justin Trudeau's riding, where I used to live, and there was little evidence that an election was happening at all.
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