Thursday, June 01, 2006

Decima Says Still No Tory Majority!

As reported here, the Tories aren't quite over the top:

The survey of more than 1,000 Canadians put support for Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives at 38 per cent nationally.

The Liberals trailed at 29 per cent, the NDP polled 21 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois was at eight per cent.

Nationally, only 30% wanted a Tory majority in power. The only province where this figure broke 50% was (naturally) Alberta.

Here is the trend line from the last couple polls (click on image for larger view):

Not much movement, really. The Tories are down a few points and out of Majority territory; the Dippers are up a few. Nothing out of the MOE.

Still, I find myself comforted. There will be no snap election before the Libs pick their man.

Thanks to some sap at Blogging Tories for the tip.

9 comments:

berlynn said...

Any idea what the polling dates were on that? Was it before the Harper was control-freaking on the PPG or after?

berlynn said...

Found my own answer. May 25-28, so that's during. Next one might put them lower, though not low enough, I'm sure.

Gazetteer said...

Hmmmmm.....

Look's like Fast Eddie G. better put the Strat Counsel to work again pushin' the polls they push best.

CuriosityKilledTheCat said...

Some observations on the latest (May 25-28, announced June 1) Decima poll:

• the "Ipsos surge" seems to have abated (if it ever existed);

• in the battlegrounds of Ontario and BC, "The Conservatives are encountering a bit more voter resistance".

• in Ontario, "looking back over the rolling averages in recent weeks reveals that the opposition parties have strengthened slightly in the province", with Tories and Libs tied (36% and 37%) and NDP at 22%.

• Tories are still gaining strength in Quebec,

• There is an age and gender gap: voters 45 and older are hoping for a Tory win; those 35-44 are split, and younger voters prefer the Liberals; also, more women want to have a Tory majority than a Liberal majority.

• Most Bloc supporters (69%) would prefer a Tory majority to a Liberal majority government.

What does these findings tell us, and what is missing?

• Harper has not broken through in Ontario and BC – the poll does not show an urban/rural breakout, but I would assume the cities are still very sceptical about the conversion of Harper from rightwing zealot to middle-of-the-roader.

• Did the day care bribes (gross $100 a month) weigh with women when they said they preferred a Tory majority to a Liberal one? Does such a pittance outweigh the anti-women policies (no freedom of choice; no viable daycare support) of the New Tories? Again, no data on these aspects.

• Just where is Tory support in Quebec? Given the first past the post election procedure, getting close to the Bloc throughout the non-Montreal regions might not cut it when it comes to more seats – a close second place counts for squat without any proportional representation. So Tory gains in Quebec are still very suspect, while they are losing ground elsewhere.

• Did Decima measure trust of leaders? If so, which Liberals did they use as "leaders" to compare to Harper? I would guess that there is still a justifiable measure of distrust of Harper in BC and Ontario.

• Did Decima ask if a new Liberal leader – untouched by corruption – would change the minds of those answering the survey, when it came to which party they would prefer to have as a majority governing party? So far, Harper is in a vacuum (yet still cannot break out).

bigcitylib said...

Cat wrote:

...also, more women want to have a Tory majority than a Liberal majority.

This is the part I wonder about, as it goes against the way gender gaps tend to work (Guys go right; gals go left)

It will be very hard for the Tories to breakthrough seatwise in Quebec and recreate their Mulroney majority, just because of the presence of the Bloc. I can see Bloc support sagging, but not disappearing, and thats who the Tories will be fighting with. The Libs seem to be solid in Montreal.

Devon Rowcliffe said...

Would be nice if Decima acknowledged the Green Party...

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