Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Today, Dion Would Win A Minority

The Latest Ipsos Reid poll tells the story. From the Star-Phoenix, here are the raw numbers:

Lib: 37%
CPC: 33%
NDP: 13%

No figures are given for the Greens or The Bloc.

The regional breakdowns are also good news:

In the key battleground of Ontario, the Liberals broadened their lead, pushing up four points to an impressive 46 per cent while the Conservatives fell fi ve points in the last month to 32 per cent and the NDP held steady at 15 per cent.

The Grits also gained the lead in the prairie provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, jumping six points to 43 per cent support while the Tories fell seven, to 35 per cent. The NDP, meanwhile, gained a point to show 18 per cent of the electorate in the provinces.

No word in this brief article on the all important Quebec numbers, but this is definitely minority government territory, and not far off the kind of fluke majority Chretien won in 1997. There would be a good chance at picking up seats West of Ontario.

Ipsos-Reid claims the result argues against a Spring election:

"You add all of this up -- and I know the election drums are beating and I have heard all the scuttlebutt about things being up and running and all the rest of it -- but you never have an election unless you can win," said Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker.

Me? I go back and forth on this question almost daily. Right now I am suspended between opinions.

Update: The Montreal Gazette has also run a piece on this. Some tidbits:

The poll also showed the Bloc Quebecois losing support in the only province where it runs candidates, falling six points since mid-December to 38 per cent. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have regained five of those points, rising to 18 per cent in Quebec while the Liberals, with its new Quebecois leader, are down three points, but still ahead of the Tories, with 28 per cent support.

Looks like the Tories have managed to buy a few votes in Quebec.

The Green party ranges from one and two percent in Sask. and Man., to eight per cent in B.C. Nationally they're at five percent.

The Conservatives' only lead in the regional polls was in Alberta where it recorded an astounding 70 per cent level of support...

Alberta tribalism, bigtime!

10 comments:

WestmountLiberal said...

MJ
Interesting poll but I'm having some trouble understanding the results for MB and SK.
Historically for the Libs to win big time seats requires a fall out for the Cons or the NDP. The poll has the NDP up a point & I didn't get the sense the Cons were in a free for all.
I'm thinking that alot of vote splitting would occur thus the seat increase might be minimal.

bigcitylib said...

Tories have definitely hit a rough patch in Sask. MB I can't really explain.

ottlib said...

Canadian Wheat Board.

The ones clamouring for change are the big operators in Alberta.

The smaller operators in Manitoba and Saskatchewan are not so keen on change.

knb said...

I'm not too sure about MB, but isn't the equalization broken promise in SK having an impact?

bigcitylib said...

That's what I meant. Remember the letter from Sask. MPs. that said if equalization didn't pan out for Sask., the Tories could lose all 8(?) seats.

Gazetteer said...

ottlib has a fine meme (not mention truism there)..... that Chuck Strahl's policies are actually designed to kill the family farm.

Back to the topic at hand.....does this mean that is just about time for another of those StratCo(u)n pushme/pullyou polls on the front page, above-the-fold, of the Globe and (nolongerEmpire) Mail

Brant Liberal said...

Newsflash urbanites: Traditional english Canada rural Liberal voters who abandoned the party over guns, gays and Gomery are coming back - that best explains the Sask, Man and even Ontario result.

canuckistanian said...

the numbers in man/sask may be transitory. certainly the cwb is a big problem for the tories in man and to a lesser extent sask, and the equalization trial-balloon is hurting them in sask. however, the cons are backing off taking on the cwb until they get a majority and will fund the aspers holocaust (err, human rights) museum...look for a big announcement on this with vic toews as treasury board pres. also, they may back down on non-renewable resource revenues until they get a majority.

harper's stump speach today was good...spring election??? would be ballsy!

ottlib said...

gazetteer:

I made no mention about the effects of the Conservative policy on the family farm.

I merely mentioned that there is a divide amongst farmers regarding the CWB and it happens to correspond to the size of the operation, That is, bigger farming operations tend to support the Conservative plan while smaller operators do not.

Personally, I do not know what effect the elimination of the CWB monopoly would have on the family farm.

evans said...

Can't wait for Canadians to see Dion in the English television debates but I guess they can overdub with a translator.