The Latest Ipsos Reid poll tells the story. From the Star-Phoenix, here are the raw numbers:
No figures are given for the Greens or The Bloc.
The regional breakdowns are also good news:
In the key battleground of Ontario, the Liberals broadened their lead, pushing up four points to an impressive 46 per cent while the Conservatives fell fi ve points in the last month to 32 per cent and the NDP held steady at 15 per cent.
The Grits also gained the lead in the prairie provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, jumping six points to 43 per cent support while the Tories fell seven, to 35 per cent. The NDP, meanwhile, gained a point to show 18 per cent of the electorate in the provinces.
No word in this brief article on the all important Quebec numbers, but this is definitely minority government territory, and not far off the kind of fluke majority Chretien won in 1997. There would be a good chance at picking up seats West of Ontario.
Ipsos-Reid claims the result argues against a Spring election:
"You add all of this up -- and I know the election drums are beating and I have heard all the scuttlebutt about things being up and running and all the rest of it -- but you never have an election unless you can win," said Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker.
Me? I go back and forth on this question almost daily. Right now I am suspended between opinions.
Update: The Montreal Gazette has also run a piece on this. Some tidbits:
The poll also showed the Bloc Quebecois losing support in the only province where it runs candidates, falling six points since mid-December to 38 per cent. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have regained five of those points, rising to 18 per cent in Quebec while the Liberals, with its new Quebecois leader, are down three points, but still ahead of the Tories, with 28 per cent support.
Looks like the Tories have managed to buy a few votes in Quebec.
The Green party ranges from one and two percent in Sask. and Man., to eight per cent in B.C. Nationally they're at five percent.
The Conservatives' only lead in the regional polls was in Alberta where it recorded an astounding 70 per cent level of support...
Alberta tribalism, bigtime!