Bernier having no effect on Tory fortunes? Hard to believe, but two Ipsos polls in a row say its so. And while you may argue that Ipsos overstates Tory support (they do poll for CanWest, after all), you would think they would show movement if movement there was.
4 comments:
Polls between elections aren't very precise. Everyone's "happy" with the government... You can make some rough generalizations - trends: Libs up, Cons stagnant, etc. - but, you can't treat the numbers as precise.
Once a campaign begins, people begin to focus more on issues, and on politics in general. Even those who rarely vote tend to pay some attention. The campaign also gives more focus to the Opposition than it gets during "non-election" times. All this results in the typical Opposition gains during an election period - IF they are trending up, and have their house in order.
If a writ was dropped tomorrow the Cons would be in trouble - and they know it. They are swimming in scandal right now, and they're doing whatever they can to force an election NOW...
I agree with Western Grit. One thing I am afraid of, is Dion talking about nothing else, than the Carbon Tax, when the price of gas is going through the roof ! That would put the Libs down in the polls fast!
I think Bernier is hurting the Conservatives, but it isn't manifesting in the polls, because it happens within continual weakness from the Liberals. What exactly is the draw to the Liberals at the moment, despite the Con problems?
I can't see why it's assumed that all the fuss and bother over Bernier would harm the Conservatives. If anything, it just makes them seem a little more interesting.
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