Thursday, June 26, 2008

First Fruits Of The Green Shift?

Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Conservative party remains ahead in Canada’s political scene, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies released by the Toronto Star. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next federal election, while 30 per cent would support the opposition Liberal party

Steve got an early look at this poll and has done his usual excellent job with it, so let me just note that the poll was done (online) from June 23rd to 24th, or post Green Shift announcement. Some of the Lib. gains can therefore almost certainly attributed to the unveiling of the new plan. The poll also notes that a minor bounce-back in Dion's fairly dismal personal numbers can be associated with the plan.

Poll is available as .pdf here. Although Steve seems to have seen material not generally available, so definitely give him a read.

PS. Yes I have in the past questioned the methodology of AR online polls. Clearly, clearly, they have changed their ways so as to get a more scientific result.

16 comments:

The Grumpy Voter said...

Two quick observations about the poll:

a) Party preference is pretty much where it's been with nearly every poll for the past fifteen months.

b) Dion is seen as the best leader by 10% of respondents and Harper outscored him on every count save for the environment. Also, health care has taken it's rightful place as our number one concern, followed by the economy and then the environment.

From what I read into this, I don't see a bounce for Liberals when their leader is sitting at 10% compared to Harper's numbers.

bigcitylib said...

Dion's personal numbers are dismal, but this does not seem to have affected the voting intention numbers. I don't know that you can run a leader-based campaign in Canada or, if you try, you need better material to work with than Harper, whose numbers for a PM are pretty dismal too.

Also, the poll puts environment 2nd, even both it and economy are at 19%.

Nice to meet a fellow insomniac, by the way.

The Grumpy Voter said...

Yep - early riser actually.

What this poll tells us is there will be another minority government - that's been the trend since the Tories came to power.

Devin Johnston said...

"The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.1 %, 19 times out of 20."

When an apparent gain falls within the margin of error of a poll, it can't really be attributed to anything in particular since there may not be any actual gain at all. We will need to keep watching the polls over the summer to see if the trend continues as the Liberals promote the plan across the country to see if it really is having a positive impact of Liberal voting intention.

RuralSandi said...

People forget - Harper, when in opposition, polled 19% and 10% between April 2004 and September 2004.

Opposition leaders always poll badly.

Trudeau and Chretien polls were horrible when they were in opposition.......

Prairie Kid said...

Lets not forget one very important point. The Green Shift is only a document now. Wait until people actually have to make a decision regarding this shift. They will soon realize that a 1 - 5% reduction in their income taxes does not equate to a 1 - 5% increase in 90% of the goods they will buy. And lets not forget about the countless companies who have multiple factories world-wide. They'll simply move the majority of their manufacturing to a country with less stringent rules. Canadians are all for doing something about global warming . . . until it starts costing them gobs of money. And it will.

And today I read where McGuinty is all for the Green Shift even though it will cost the government of Ontario billions of dollars for their coal fired plants. And who will pay these fines? The people of Ontario.

Ti-Guy said...

"And lets not forget about the countless companies who have multiple factories world-wide."

Christ, the illiteracy.

Get off the computer and go read a book.

wilson said...

Polls taken before Dion takes his show on the road are meaningless.
Dion will kill his own plan.
The makings of the most powerful attack ad,
Dion speaks:

"I’m confident we will have significant reductions (in ghg). I’m not telling you specific numbers because you would not trust me," he said.

http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Canada/2008/06/26/5990341-sun.html

JimBobby said...

They'll simply move the majority of their manufacturing to a country with less stringent rules.

The cost of fuel is having a big impact on this type of reaction. I saw an ABC News (I think) item last night where they reported companies moving operations back from China. It simply has become unprofitable to ship iron ore from South America to Japanese steel mills then to Chinese factories and then to the US.

If dirty businesses choose to relocate offshore, they will find the coming carbon tariffs will erase any perceived gain. Already, the EU is balking at imports from countries like India where no carbon reduction strategies exist.

The next US president will take some action on carbon reduction. US politicians are notoriously protectionist. They will only accept a carbon reduction cost if they can slap a carbon tariff on imports. We're already seeing the uS mayors rejecting tar sands oil on environmental reasons, alone. Add a US cap-trade system and watch the protectionists get busy.

JB

bigcitylib said...

JB,

Links to some stuff on transport costs:

http://rabett.blogspot.com/2008/06/comparative-advantage-principle-driver.html#links

Prairie Kid said...

Great argument against my post Ti-Guy . . .

You should seriously get your blood pressure checked because your angry, senseless comments must have an effect on your health. Physical and mental.

Jimbobby . . . There might be some companies who will move back. However, the companies who stay will pass on the carbon taxes to the consumer. And if you add up all the good you and I purchase, then add the cost of the carbon tax on top of that, the miniscule tax reduction we will get will not nearly equal the cost of good going up.

And I think Canadians will begin to realize this once more people start doing the math.

Auntie Liberal said...

After reading this blog for a while, I found the insights to be shallow at best and most comments were of an uninformed nature, and just seemed to be an illogical echo chamber. So I completely gave up on this site as a waste of time. After six months I came back to see if there had been any improvement or reason to continue reading it. Sadly, there was none. Same tired old crap, same ignorant and obnoxious commenting.

Ti-Guy said...

Great argument against my post Ti-Guy...

It wasn't an argument against your post. I was just asserting that you're illiterate.

That's all I'm concerned about, you know. Conservatives are butt-fuck ignorant and need to get off the computer and read more.

Cameron W said...

I've noticed a couple of comments about the carbon tax causing prices to go up on some things (many things, actually) where GHGs are a factor in production.

That's the point!

Having the tax shift, with consideration and adjustment for poorer Canadians, is an important detail of the plan. Of course once implemented there will need to be further adjustments to the plan. I think that's why Dion is hesitant to offer specific numbers. If we'd done it here in Canada already we'd have numbers, but this would be the first time to try it nationally (something similar is of course just being introduced in B.C., and there are already other similar carbon tax programs around the world) so we don't have definite numbers on what the ghg reductions will be for Canada. It is generally accepted that the carbon tax will have to increase over the years in order to have more of an effect. Remember, this is a revenue neutral tax shift, so I expect income taxes to be reduced as the carbon tax is increased. f implemented, we'll see how well the Liberals can work this.

People speaking out against this green shift seem to think we can continue to externalize the environmental costs of consumption. It should be no longer free to dump GHGs into the atmosphere.

Cameron W said...

Here's a recent poll. Might be a bit less reliable, but the results are interesting.

Canadians blind to Liberal 'green shift,' poll shows

Harper and the Conservatives are putting partisan politics ahead of real action on climate change. Not surprising. They use fear to stifle debate. Their disinformation campaign is dirty and embarrassing me as a Canadian.

From the story:

"...Pollster John Wright of Ipsos-Reid said the negative first impressions may be because before the details were even announced, the governing Conservatives pounced. The Conservatives ran ads branding it a "tax grab" and "a tax on everything" and, once details were out, Prime Minister Stephen Harper labeled it "crazy" and said it would "screw" everybody..."

"...Asked what elements of the proposal they have heard about the most, six in 10 could not name a single element.

Less than 2 in 10 named the carbon tax.Two per cent heard that it's a tax that's supposed to help the environment or stop climate change. And two big features of the plan - that it would be revenue neutral and used to lower income taxes - were cited by a tiny three per cent..."


Dion and the Liberals have a lot of work ahead of them selling this plan. Harper managed to frame the issue in the minds of many Canadians, but Dion can still reset the frame from Harper's "crazy tax on everything that will screw everybody" to "revenue neutral tax shift".

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