[Philip] Mote and Georg Kaser, a glaciologist at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, write in American Scientist that the decline in Kilimanjaro's ice has been going on for more than a century and that most of it occurred before 1953, while evidence of atmospheric warming there before 1970 is inconclusive.
They attribute the ice decline primarily to complex interacting factors, including the vertical shape of the ice's edge, which allows it to shrink but not expand. They also cite decreased snowfall, which reduces ice buildup and determines how much energy the ice absorbs -- because the whiteness of new snow reflects more sunlight, the lack of new snow allows the ice to absorb more of the sun's energy.
The researchers in this case are legit--Mote has chronicled the retreating ice on the Olympic Mountains here--but that is okay. Science is essentially self-correcting, and here is an example of the fact.
And what we are seeing with the theory of global warming is something that has occurred again and again in the history of science (Newtonian physics might be another example), which is that a theory that has provided an exemplary explanation in one area is extended to more and more adjacent phenomenon, sometimes successfully, sometimes not. So for example the idea that global warming is creating more/more intense hurricanes is certainly plausible, and physical mechanisms by which it might occur have been suggested. Nevertheless the IPCC puts the odds of this theoretic extension's being correct at a little over 50%, and it may yet turn out to be false. Should this prove to be the case, it will not really shake the core of the AGW theory, but only show that it does not explain one particular aspect of climatological reality.
5 comments:
Strange how everything will only become worse under 'climate change' predictions. More floods, more droughts, more hot periods, more cold periods, etc.
How do they know that? They don't. But you can't get anybody all rabbled up if you predict "more temperate weather looming".
What, the last few centuries of recorded weather have been merely pleasant bliss?
Al Gore needs to be banned from stepping foot in Canada ever again. We don't need no stinkin' Americans telling us what to do. Why do you liberals want to be the Democrat's sock puppet? Does Hillary pull the strings on Dion?
Canada to Al Gore: FO and take Bono with you.
Good article.
Findings like this should (but likely won’t) effectively silence those claiming that global warming is more based on blind ideology than science. Accusations that scientists are blindly following this “trendy” issue demonstrate a lack of understanding of the scientific method, which is based on rational skepticism and hypothesis testing.
That said, there is the danger that global warming opponents will use this finding to “prove” that global warming is a natural phenomenon and not caused by human activity. Because of this, the context of this finding is extremely important.
Warren,
Exactly right, which is why the fact that Mote has done tons of other work linking the retreating ice on West Coast mountain ranges (see link in main post) is significant.
ge cost by man's pollution less of a fact? No, means more resources are required to gather climate data and evaluate climate models.
I am so SICK of people who simply turn their desires in to beliefs. The never need facts to justify their beliefs, because they are scoffers, the greatest of fools. The problem is sustainability of the wasteful suburban culture. Oil prices and climate change are just some symptoms of the problem.
Message clipped!! Trying again.
Every Scientist knows the simplest model that fits is the correct one to use. As a result lots of overly simplistic climate models are going to be shown as invalid. Does this make global climate change cost by man's pollution less of a fact? No, means more resources are required to gather climate data and evaluate climate models.
I am so SICK of people who simply turn their desires in to beliefs. The never need facts to justify their beliefs, because they are scoffers, the greatest of fools. The problem is sustainability of the wasteful suburban culture. Oil prices and climate change are just some symptoms of the problem.
Post a Comment