Thursday, November 05, 2009

Tories Slip A Bit

The Conservatives still have a double-digit lead over the Liberals, with the support of 37.4 per cent of decided respondents, down from 38.4 per cent last week. Liberal support held steady at 26.8 per cent and the New Democratic Party saw support slip to 16.3 per cent from 16.7 per cent last week.

...a little further from majority territory, about where we were at election time last year, and down a little over 3 points from their EKOs peak of three weeks ago.

No regionals that I could find, and of course taken before the gun registry vote last night. Difficult to say how this will effect things going forward. A few have argued that, the issue off the table, Libs./NDP might have an easier time in rural ridings. We shall see. I think the vote will allow those hard-core Tories who have been angered by perceived over-spending and other sins of the gov. to forgive them; I can also see the Libs losing support for betraying their urban base. I can certainly see it affecting their fundraising numbers; not like they'll get another penny out of me, for example, although I am looking forward to Mr. Rocco's next email. He will get a long, obscenity filled response, if nothing else.

Ps. Kady has regional results.

14 comments:

CanadianSense said...

Is your headline accurate with MOE?

If polls move up down 1% a balanced or fair assessment is no change if you include MOE.

They should also not use decimal places.

But if positive spin is helpful about the 1% change, okey dokey.

bigcitylib said...

Well, more important is its down 3%in 3 weeks. EKOS says:

"The results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20."

...so I think thats significant over the time frame.

Ti-Guy said...

But if positive spin is helpful about the 1% change, okey dokey.

Well, since you were wrong, apologise for your slur, you coarse and primitive fraud.

Undecided is 16%. I had to go the Ekos site, download the full report and check the tiny footnote at the bottom of page 3 to find that out. It's not reported anywhere else.

Gayle said...

"I think the vote will allow those hard-core Tories who have been angered by perceived over-spending and other sins of the gov. to forgive them"

I use my own family to measure this, and I agree with you.

"I can also see the Libs losing support for betraying their urban base."

I am not sure where that support will go however, since the NDP also betrayed their urban voters. I agree it will show up in fundraising.

bigcitylib said...

Gayle, yeah well that is the thing. If both your party and the other one suck, why change? Which is I suppose the thinking within Lib and NDP circles.

I suppose the Greens are still out there.

CanadianSense said...

TG,

Consistency is VERY important. Try it will help with your lack of credibility.

Polls matter?

Only polls that show a decline in CPC matter?

One Poll is means something?

Cherrypick data in one Poll is appropriate but using same logic against Liberals is "con" pollsters ?

Try to be consistent on use of Pollsters.

Ti-Guy said...

Can someone teach CS the English language?

The only point I'm making, turd, is that all the data should be presented. 16% is not trivial. In the past, the undecided vote was always reported along with voter preference.

CanadianSense said...

TG,

your point?

TG use of Pollsters, are you being consistent or cherry picking a positive comment?

TG are you leading the brigade of cherry pickers?

Gayle said...

You could always stay home.I think I will.

Ti-Guy said...

Well, you can stay home in Alberta Gayle, because voting wouldn't make a difference anyway.

Some of us don't have that luxury.

Jay said...

I can here it now.

"If you elect a liberal they will bring back the long gun registry."

Expect it. It is coming.

Big Winnie said...

If the reform/cons get a majority, Canada will become another police state

CanadianSense said...

Big W

based on voting record of the Liberals they have had a majority for years.

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