Thursday, January 21, 2010

Prorogation (?) Continues To Take Toll

The new EKOS has Libs and Tories in a statistical tie. Interesting in that:

1) The weekly trend shows a gradual Tory decline beginning before the prorogation decision. Its easy to forget that they were riding a string of bad news in the month or so leading up to that decision.

2) The Libs are finally starting to benefit a little from that decline, rather than bouncing along the bottom at around 27%.

3) The polling dates are from Jan 13 to Jan 19, so Harper's relatively adequate response to the Haiti earthquake doesn't seem to have helped him much.

And, OT, this is clever. Liberals should at least learn how to feign non-arrogance, at least for short periods of time.

8 comments:

Ti-Guy said...

And, OT, this is clever. Liberals should at least learn how to feign non-arrogance, at least for short periods of time.

I complained long ago, perhaps here, certainly elsewhere, that I never liked the expression "natural governing party." Hubris.

Anyway, it's worthwhile to note, from the link to EKOS, that the Conservative slide started back October. We often forget that, since we're usually beset by trolls pasting in triumphalist squeals each time a poll comes out showing the Conservatives in the lead.

Mark Francis said...

So we're back to the argument that prorogation could have also been brought on to help stem the decline in Conservative fortunes. That Con talking point floating around that parliamentary issues were not affecting the COn's standing, and thus not a rational for proroguing Parliament, seems to be busted.

I firmly believe the prorogation was a preparatory step to a March election: quelch dissent, stem the flow of negative news from the House, pump us up with ads, a warm Olympic glow, a speech from the throne declaring the recession over, a budget will less bad news in it, and them, wham! the writ drops.

I think we've thrown a wrench into those works.

Ti-Guy said...

That Con talking point floating around that parliamentary issues were not affecting the COn's standing, and thus not a rational for proroguing Parliament, seems to be busted.

Was there ever a Con talking point that was anything but utter bullshit? I can't think of any. Or at least, I haven't taken any of them seriously since Harper declared "there is no economic collapse."

It's not because talking points are inherently baseless. It's usually the case that those spreading them either don't believe them themselves or simply don't care whether they have any basis in fact or not.

Why we keep entertaining them is what drives me up the wall. It's not like the Cons care at all that they are eventually revealed as bullshit artists of the first order.

CanadianSense said...

I accept many unhappy people subscrible to the Michael Mann of fudging data but using and referring the short lived highest in (Polls) to suggest a trend is funny.

In 12 months how long was a 14 point spread?

Instead of looking at the 12 months spread ignore the months tied, close and leading to pretend a large drop occurred in "15 days" as Rick Mercer alleges.

Funny thing about math and using a calendar Liberals have great difficulty.

http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/2010/01/msm-applying-michael-mann-hockey-stick.html

Ti-Guy said...

I haven't seen CS around these parts since the he/she got his/her last comment deleted.

Gene Rayburn said...

Oh no! CS is back to wanking with both hands.

Is CS a poli-tranny Ti?

Ti-Guy said...

Is CS a poli-tranny Ti?

Tranny or even hermaphodite would describe a lower degree of biological ambiguity than CS demonstrates.

Personally, I suspect he/she has pistils and stamens.

Tof KW said...

I haven't seen CS around these parts since the he/she got his/her last comment deleted.

She had a comment deleted? About time BCL started separating the CPC posters with actual debating skills from the, well you know, the addlepated ones.