Friday, April 27, 2012

NDP Liberal Merger Odds Now 0

The poll done by Toronto-based Forum Research Inc. this week shows the NDP was the choice of 36 per cent of decided and leaning respondents, with the Conservatives close behind at 33 per cent.

If you were an NDP MP/head of a local riding association/rank-&-filer why would you not want to see if the party couldn't win the big prize on its own?  After all, I don't think the Liberals ever did this well under either Dion or Ignatieff.

As a side note, the quality of Forum's work aside, their PR strategy seems quite clever.  Fling cheap robopolls out on every topic conceivable and bask in the MSM coverage you get as a result.  Run a google search: Forum returns 8 pages of results filtered to news ; Nanos--who also have a poll out this morning showing the two parties tied--just two.

And what these polls also indicate, to me anyway, is that the future of the LPoC is probably not with Bob Rae, who has easily been eclipsed by Mulcair this past month or so.  His statesmanlike demeanor seems more and more like a relic of the olden days.  The party should not be making it easier for him to run for permanent leader, and I am starting think they should putting impediments in his way so as not to scare off other potentials.


sharonapple88 said...

After all, I don't think the Liberals ever did this well under either Dion or Ignatieff.

They did better. No surprise, this happened shortly after they became leader.

Ipsos Reid, December 7, 2006: Liberals 38; Conservatives 32.
Ekos, December 9, 2006: Liberals 40; Conservatives 33.

Ekos: April 13, 2009: Liberal 36.7; Conservative: 30.
Ipsos, Harris, Strategic showed around a 5 point gap. The fall didn't happen until around August-September.

Their fade in the polls coincided with attack ads the Conservatives ran around the same period. :P But then again, all leaders get a honeymoon with the electorate.

(I'm curious about what the Conservatives are planning to do to Mulcair and the NDP, or if they're going to underestimate the entire party. Or if their goal is the decimation of the Liberal party and reaping the potential votes that would possibly flow this way.)

But as for Rae... under Layton the NDP dipped down to 10-13% during Dion's lead and to 12-15% during Iggy's time on the top. Now, I'm not arguing that Rae should lead the party, but I think it's early to say whether Canada has warmed up to Mulcair and the NDP and would like to take a pass on Rae and the Liberals. The NDP's still in the honeymoon period with their new leader. I'm not sure Mulcair has beaten Rae... not just yet.

But yeah, what this party needs is a competitive leadership race. I'm not sure one will happen with Rae as interim leader. Who could beat him at this point? And no one seems willing to run.

And I'm sure merger talk is down to zero.

CanNurse said...

Dennis, I have a sneaking suspicion that, as a former NDP candidate, you're hardly unbiased. But that's what opinion blogs are for, right? But I've heard every NDP and Lib MP or party functionary say the very thing, essentially, when the topic of coalition/cooperation is put to them. As a long-time fellow NDPer, I strongly disagree with this.
In every election for ages, both prov. & Fed, the Cons split the vote every time. We've had long enough to see that this is not going to change! It's my belief that if the NDP and Lib party old boys & organizers truly cared more about Canada than their Party flag-waving, they'd do what it takes to cooperate with the single and essential goal of defeating Harper. He is destroying our Canada DAILY, and the only certain way to stop him is just such a coalition. I no longer care who "wins". If our country is completely corporatized and destroyed in ever way that counts, it's irrelevant. A lot of my friends, all NDP, feels exactly the same way. And yet the backroom boys & even local party leaders do not listen to the members, apparently. Some people I know have left the NDP because Nathan Cullen - the only one realizing this danger & supporting cooperation - wasn't elected leader & the party keeps coming out with "No merger" newsbytes. What about "we're all one?" (Dalai Lama today in Ottawa speech)