Iggy Vs. Dion: Spot The Difference

When Iggy grovels, he does it with clenched fists, thus displaying "leadership".



(PS. One thing about the Torys: at least they wait until they're in power before they start ignoring the grass-roots)

Dump Dion, Install Iggy

Because that video is a disgrace. Give him his gold watch and tell him bye bye.

Get it done before Parliament returns in January. Tell Bob Rae he's wasting his time and money.

As for Iggy, he hasn't looked bad on TV recently. Mind you, I've watched a lot of it with the sound off, but at least he hasn't accidentally stapled himself to anything, and that in itself is an improvement. Tell him to shave his eyebrows so he doesn't look so much like Spock.

Democracy? Fuck democracy. The party needs to be able to fight an election by the end of next month, whether there is still a coalition to belong to at that time or not.

Keep Dion

Very little has changed, popular vote wise, though the seat totals have (although not so much to affect the basic situation--three parties must band together to defeat Tories in a Commons vote but they still dominate the committees).

A new leadership race now means no effective opposition for another year, means the new Lib leader has to abstain as often as the old, means the party remains broke and divided. Do people really want to go through this all again just to feed Iggy and Rae's voracious ego?

And, Iggy, if there is a leadership race and you choose to run in it, I will hound you to the gates of Hell.

See You On The Other Side

I am predicting another Tory minority, but won't bother going into seat counts.

I am predicting that the Liberal Party wakes up tomorrow and, having avoided disaster and realizing that another election could come at any time, decides this is no time to go switching horses. Dion gets a 2nd chance; Count Iggy returns to his coffin.

For this reason, the Tory strategy of making every damn thing a confidence motion no longer serves. Who knows how long the next parliament will last, but I wouldn't be surprised if it staggers along for a good while, passing budgets but otherwise harmless.

I am predicting that The Green Shift becomes history and the Libs quickly embrace a cap and trade system along the lines of the Conservative/NDP proposals. The Carbon Tax was an unfortunate attempt at being honest with the voters, and it didn't work. Bye bye! Cap and Trade has exactly the same effect, even regionally, but it is more cumbersome and doesn't have the word "tax" in it. Give the people what they want!

Of all the party leaders, Elizabeth May will have the hardest time of things post-election. The Greens might get more votes than the Bloc, and yet acquire zero seats in reward. Further, while advocating strategic voting to prevent a Conservative Majority is good and noble, it is not the kind of thing that serves the long-term interest of your own party. I don't know what will happen to her, but I expect some bitterness from the Green grassroots. (And, oh yes, running against MacKay was the single stupidest strategic decision by a politician in the last two years. There were other seats she could have won. Expect some second guessing over that.)

So I may have a wrap-up post for tomorrow morning, or not, but by the time you read it I will be on a plane back to TO. See you on the other side!

Wouldn't It Be Funny If...

...both the Liberals and Tories came out with a vote %, and hence a seat count, down from their 2006 total, as a number of polls suggest.

What would happen to Dion? His conditions of victory have generally been seen to be: more seats with respect to the Tories and he stays, fewer and the knives come out. This 3rd options doesn't seem to have been considered.

What would happen to Harper? Would he want to stay on after having been denied a majority twice?

And Here's The Context

...for this:

"He was asked by a reporter why he was avoiding using the phrase “Green Shift” since it was a central plank in the Liberal platform.

“You have said it was — never me,” he said. “I always said it was an important policy for Canada. I would strongly believe it will be good for our country.”

Dion said the key to keeping Canada competitive in the 21st century is to produce more but use less in sectors, including agriculture.

“Green Shift is part of the solution, but the solution is the overall plan of the Liberal government,” he said"

I suppose we can quibble over the meaning of "central", but what this clearly shows is that Dion was merely situating The Green Shift within the context of the overall Liberal plan, not abandoning it. What it also shows is that the Winnipeg Sun reportedly story more accurately than the TO Star. Who could have imagined the day?

If These Numbers Hold Up, Dion Should Keep His Job

From democraticSPACE:

National (24 Aug - 31 Aug, +/- 1.4%)

Conservative — 34.3% (125 seats)
Liberal — 31.3% (112 seats)
NDP — 16.6% (26 seats)
Green — 8.6% (0 seats)
Bloc — 8.2% (43 seats)
Other — 1.0% (2 seats)

...based on a nine seat pick-up and the fact that a long, expensive leadership race would leave the Liberal Party broke, and Harper with a free hand, for at least another year.

Several cmmenters note that DS has Bill Casey winning in Nova Scotia. Here's a little update on his situation from today's CH.

Dion Can Survive Another Tory Minority

I call bullshit on headlines like:

Election looms -- and only Harper or Dion will survive

Harper's fate aside, what happens to Dion if the result of a Fall election is a smaller Conservative minority? Well, Dion can say he made things better, and that he has made the Libs negotiating position stronger (esp. if Harper must appeal to two opposition parties for support to get anything passed rather than the current one).

He can also look to precedent that says Lib leaders get two elections before they're tossed (a la John Turner).

Furthermore, there is still no mechanism by which you can easily remove a Liberal leader, and thanks to some very stupid decisions made in 2006, the party is still committed to an expensive, drawn-out, archaic, and exclusive delegated convention should any attempt succeed. Take this route and the Libs will stay divided and broke well into 2010.

PS. Not that I'm saying a Tory minority is the most likely outcome. In fact I'm still not convinced Harper's going to drop the writ anytime soon. There's been a fair bit of fear and loathing among the Tories natural allies re "breaking" their own law to get to a campaign. I'm still of the opinion we're all here until October 2009.

Speaking Of Jokes About Killing Politicians

This kind of looks like another one to me. What's the Tory message supposed to be? Dear fellow Albertans, your response to Dion's presentation of his Green Shift during stampede week was a little soft.

h/t CC.

Dion Redeemed?

Seeing the Liberals turtle all Winter and Spring has been painful to watch.

Having Dion whip the vote over C-484 and kill it would be sweet relief.

Mind you, watching a handful of Socially Conservative Liberal MPs tell Dion to blow it out his ass and vote with the Tories to pass C-484 would be even more painful to watch.

And watching Dion have to renege at the last minute to avoid the above-noted spectacle would be worth about a three-bucket barf.

So this vow is a real opportunity and a real risk, one that I am nevertheless glad Mr. Dion has taken.

(On the other hand, it looks like Harper and Co. are going to let a bunch of bills get ground up in the wheels of the legislative process. Maybe C-484 will be one of them. If it expires at night in the Senate, that is the best possible outcome. And those old guys up there are clever. Sometimes they only appear to be sleeping, when in fact they are in deep deliberations.)

Quit Yer Whinin

The Libs are doing fine. Ahead, in fact, though within the margin, according to Nik Nanos.

(Anyway, if Dion were to quit, as some have suggested, who would replace him? Or would there have to be another long-drawn-out, draining leadership campaign leaving the party rudderless and broke for another two years? Yeah, that would be fun)

Dion: I Will Not Repeal The Metric System

And other interesting bits from a speech/question & answer session given in Espanola, Ontario. Don't know if the writer cleaned-up his English, but Dion comes off as quite articulate. And if he can explain his carbon tax proposals this clearly, I don't think the Tories attempt to "pre-frame" the issue as being about hiking gas prices will play that well.

For one thing,

...sources say that the plan would not add more taxes to gasoline.

The trick (for me) will be that the Lib environmental plan does not wind up being entirely urban-centric; that there is stuff in it that allows Dion and Co. to pitch it to Tory leaning rural/suburban ridings. For instance, their LEM proposal (Location Efficient Mortgage) is great for people living near a half-decent public transit system. If you don't, you're not likely to be impressed.

Update: Conservative Gerry Nichols makes a good point: everyone is proposing a carbon tax these days, including (most likely) the federal conservatives.

Even Alberta has one, but they're don't call it that.

Has There Ever Been An Opposition Leader As Powerful As Stephane Dion?

Just kidding, but I like this little rhetorical stratagem, which the Libs have been deploying a lot over the past few weeks:

The "hour draws nigh" for the federal Conservative government to face an election, says the deputy-leader of the Liberal party [Michael Ignatieff].
[...]
However, that can also only come at the call of one person - Liberal leader Stephane Dion.

Not really true, given the makeup of Parliament--both the Bloc and NDP would have to be on board to bring down the Tories. But, if you want to buff up Dion's leadership credentials, why not imply that he's actually the guy calling the shots in the HOC? Kind of like making lemonaid out of lemons, especially since the media is actually starting to buy it.

PS. But did he really have to say "draws nigh"? Who does Iggy think he is? E.A. Poe?

PPS. Meanwhile, Jason is doing some serious work on the Tories In-And-Out Polling Scandal.

Harper Lawsuit: Politics By Other Means

Ottawa's blondest blogger is quick on the uptake:

Does this sound a lot like a Prime Minister who is suing (PDF of complaint - warning, large file) Stephane Dion, personally, for libel? Or, alternately, a Prime Minister who wants everyone listening to him to think that's what he's doing...

Stephane Dion: NOT a subject of litigation.

Anyway, I thought Cadmania might have been on its last legs, but thank you Mr. Harper, you've brought it back to Life.

Dion Takes Flack For Conservative Proposal

Certainly I don't know whether S. Dion was suggesting invigorated diplomatic efforts (through NATO?) in an effort to pressure Pakistan into closing its porous Afghan border, or whether he really did want to send in the troops. If the latter, he is not the first to make this proposal. The first was the late, unlamented Tory Defense Minister Gordon O'Connor. From the original, September 2006 Globe story:

KANDAHAR, AFGHANISTAN --Canadian soldiers should join local forces fighting Taliban insurgents inside Pakistan,defense Minister Gordon O'Connor says, making a tentative first attempt at raising the explosive issue of foreign troops trespassersg on Pakistani territory.

Most of the Globe piece is behind a fire-wall, but I wrote back then that:

...what O'Connor seems to be asking in the above is merely that Canadian and allied troops should have the same permissions as U.S. Special Forces: to conduct limited, low-profile pursuits of al-Qaeda and Taliban suspects into Pakistan.

Jeez but people have short memories, including some of the ones around Dion, apparently. It would have taken exactly 6 seconds to run a few search terms and found all this out. Employ teh googles, Dion! Employ teh googles!

(Actually, it looks like O'Connor backpedalled from this idea pretty quickly as well)

I Doubt Even Conservatives Will Buy His Baloney

John Turley-Ewart (who?) on Bill C-6 and Dion's response to it:

"Indeed, one has to prove one's identity to buy an airplane ticket, alcohol or cigarettes. Proving one's identity to vote — the most important exercise within a democracy — should not be treated with such disregard. Mr. Dion could have advocated legislation that would improve the integrity of our democracy, by opposing voting by mail and proxy and while wearing a veil.

Such a move would have presented the Liberals as agents for positive change, a party that respected the sanctity of the democratic process. Instead, Mr. Dion turned his back on principle. "

Well, of course, while Dion can "advocate" anything he wants, it is currently Conservative Legislation under consideration, and this legislation does nothing to establish a voter's identity because, as apparently needs to be repeated over and over again, it does not require the newly unveiled face to be matched against any form of photo ID.

Now, perhaps Dion should put forward legislation that 1) requires veiled women to unveil somewhere in the vicinity of the polling booth, 2) fixes the issue of mail-in voting and voting by proxy, where again it is impossible to determine whether the person casting the ballot is who they claim to be. If there is a problem (of voter fraud?) to be solved here, then this kind of legislation would do a better job of it than C-6. But that would certainly not preclude being against C-6.

But is there a problem to be solved? The Bloc Quebecois opposition to C-6 is instructive:

The Bloc Quebecois also opposes the bill but for entirely different reasons. Bloc MPs object to the fact that veiled women will be allowed to uncover their faces privately before female polling officials.

Female polling officers may be hard to find in some of Quebec's small towns, and bringing them in might cost $$$. The Bloc supports the idea of Muslim bashing, in other words, but if its going to cost them to do it, no thanks.

Jay Hill, Then And Now

From today's Prince George Citizen:

Prince George-Peace River MP Jay Hill says he's surprised and disappointed at Stephane Dion's decision to not bring down the minority Conservative government over the throne speech.

"It's not a very principled reaction I would suggest," Hill said from Ottawa

Jay Hill's weekly column, Sept. 27th:

The underlying myth in this debate about whether there will be an election this fall is that the Conservative Government must attract the support of at least one of the opposition parties to survive. They’re wrong. There is another option.

Conservatives set an historical precedent when we abstained from voting on the Liberal’s 2005 budget, allowing Paul Martin’s minority government to survive. At that time, our leader Stephen Harper said there were many aspects of that budget we fundamentally couldn’t vote to support. Yet, we respected the will of Canadians which strongly indicated they didn’t want an election.

Mr. Dion, as leader of the Official Opposition, could take the same, responsible course of action now. Canada’s economy is performing very well. Unemployment is at its lowest in 32 years. Taxes are down. Consumer spending remains robust and Canada is regaining its good reputation on the international stage thanks to the strong and decisive leadership of Prime Minister Harper.

You don't get a more pure form of contradiction than that.

What We All Know

...is that, in a televised debate between Stephen Harper and Stephane Dion, it would take scientific instruments to determine who was exuding less charisma.

Because Iggy Still Sucks

Since everyone else is talking about this, I suppose I must as well.

1) Anyone one seriously considering replacing Dion at this point is nutz. Who has the stomach for another leadership race? And in any case that would mean the Liberals abandoning their role of Opposition for another 6 months/ year while they wash their dirty laundry yet again, and Harper and Co., I don't know, fumble us into another war or decide to drill for oil underneath the Parliament buildings. Being on the opposition benches, opposing the government agenda, is still a job, and I don't think the Liberal Party will do itself any good by taking more time off work to navel gaze.

Besides, Iggy can get five days of negative media coverage meditating on Canadian wildlife. He is still NOT THE MAN. So Dion is there for at least one general election, and people in the party who do not want to spend another five years or so in the political wilderness should make peace with that fact.

2) In a week or two a new federal poll will come out, and (I wager) the parties will be pretty much where they have been: Libs and Tories within the margin of error, with (maybe) the Tories down a few points. People will forget the by-elections (if anyone outside the political nerdigentsia was paying attention in the first place), and life will go on.

3) Now, that said, there are problems in Quebec that may be difficult to fix. As KC at Scott's place wrote,

I do NOT want to be part of a party that advocates decentralism and special status if thats what it will take to become a serious contender in Quebec.

I don't either, but I am not sure what else the Liberal Party has to offer that they will be willing to buy in La Belle Province.

Pictures From The Stampede: Men In Pink

This year's Calgary Stampede theme is "tough enough to wear pink", as Calgarians pitch in to help in the fight against breast cancer. Of course, there is a right way and a wrong way to wear pink...

WRONG!

Avast Ye! It's the Great Pink Whale! But seriously, folks, how long do you think this guy can survive outta the water? (Advice to CPoC: Hire your guy a personal trainer, fire his psychic image consultant, and tell him to lay off the pizza pops)

WRONG!

Holy crap, the dweeboid has landed! If my grandma saw this guy on the beach she'd kick sand in his face. (Advice to the LPC: Hire your guy a personal trainer, get him lifting weights or something. It worked for Charles Atlas.)

RIGHT!

Now this guy knows how to wear pink. Jack, you are a tiny socialist fashion God.