Tuesday, October 14, 2008

See You On The Other Side

I am predicting another Tory minority, but won't bother going into seat counts.

I am predicting that the Liberal Party wakes up tomorrow and, having avoided disaster and realizing that another election could come at any time, decides this is no time to go switching horses. Dion gets a 2nd chance; Count Iggy returns to his coffin.

For this reason, the Tory strategy of making every damn thing a confidence motion no longer serves. Who knows how long the next parliament will last, but I wouldn't be surprised if it staggers along for a good while, passing budgets but otherwise harmless.

I am predicting that The Green Shift becomes history and the Libs quickly embrace a cap and trade system along the lines of the Conservative/NDP proposals. The Carbon Tax was an unfortunate attempt at being honest with the voters, and it didn't work. Bye bye! Cap and Trade has exactly the same effect, even regionally, but it is more cumbersome and doesn't have the word "tax" in it. Give the people what they want!

Of all the party leaders, Elizabeth May will have the hardest time of things post-election. The Greens might get more votes than the Bloc, and yet acquire zero seats in reward. Further, while advocating strategic voting to prevent a Conservative Majority is good and noble, it is not the kind of thing that serves the long-term interest of your own party. I don't know what will happen to her, but I expect some bitterness from the Green grassroots. (And, oh yes, running against MacKay was the single stupidest strategic decision by a politician in the last two years. There were other seats she could have won. Expect some second guessing over that.)

So I may have a wrap-up post for tomorrow morning, or not, but by the time you read it I will be on a plane back to TO. See you on the other side!


Mark Richard Francis said...

Well, the Libs have cap and trade in the playbook already from March 2007.

What a fubar, if true that cap and trade (and the CPC DOA variant) will be he only system pushed by the top three parties. Cap and trade can work, but, boy, it will take effort, and there will be no money to offset higher costs to consumers.

I can't believe the NDP have been so partisan as to attack such progressive policy as tax shifting. It's a European social democrat invention, by God! Environmental groups all over are panning the NDP for doing so. Between that and not calling harper for his wanton abusing of confidence motion declarations has me fuming at the NDP.

Cap and trade produced carbon pricing up to $100/tonne in Europe, without accomplishing anything in terms of real reductions.

A carbon levy of $40/tonne phased in over four years would be looking mighty good in such a scenario.

I really think that the Libs tried to sell the Green Shift wrong. They should have pushed it as two separate policies: promised tax cuts and increased tax credits, and called for flat levies on carbon emissions. Accuse your opponents who favour offset purchasing systems (be they cap and traders [NDP] or bogus intensity-based traders [CPC] ) of creating "market uncertainty" by not setting a "clear and fair carbon price", and combine that with a fair accusation that they will raise prices without helping the low and middle income families, and the Liberals could have played that up in context of the economic uncertainty. Even without an economic meltdown in progress, the Liberals would be in the driver seat on the issue.

I was very disappointed to see Harper's weak plan not exploited that way. His plan will increase the price of "everything" as well, without providing any relief to us normal folk.

Liberal planning fubar, IMHO, may have killed some of the best policy produced by the Libs in a long time.

Ti-Guy said...

Count Iggy returns to his coffin.

Let's hope so. I think this albatross has hung around the Liberals necks for too long.

Jerome Bastien said...

Hey there.

Im not coming to gloat/annoy (it would be a bit early for that anyways).

No in fact Im coming to thank Ti-Guy - I had tried, but had been unable, to imitate Duceppe's french accent.

And then I went on Andrew Coyne's blog, and found this comment:

“SUS-tnible DAV-lopment”

from Ti-Guy.

That is bang-on. Thank you.

Ti-Guy said...

I'll gloat for you, Jermo...

Booyah! In your face, Fiberals! Minority Queens rule!


L'enfer c'est les autres. Et bien, continuons...

Andy Lehrer said...

No, Dion's done.