Election looms -- and only Harper or Dion will survive
Harper's fate aside, what happens to Dion if the result of a Fall election is a smaller Conservative minority? Well, Dion can say he made things better, and that he has made the Libs negotiating position stronger (esp. if Harper must appeal to two opposition parties for support to get anything passed rather than the current one).
He can also look to precedent that says Lib leaders get two elections before they're tossed (a la John Turner).
Furthermore, there is still no mechanism by which you can easily remove a Liberal leader, and thanks to some very stupid decisions made in 2006, the party is still committed to an expensive, drawn-out, archaic, and exclusive delegated convention should any attempt succeed. Take this route and the Libs will stay divided and broke well into 2010.
PS. Not that I'm saying a Tory minority is the most likely outcome. In fact I'm still not convinced Harper's going to drop the writ anytime soon. There's been a fair bit of fear and loathing among the Tories natural allies re "breaking" their own law to get to a campaign. I'm still of the opinion we're all here until October 2009.
6 comments:
It'been suggested that:
''Harper will table a confidence motion that all parties respect the fixed election date they all voted unanimously for.''
Would the opps tie their hands behind their back and vote yes, or take the country into an election by refusing to abide by the fixed election law they passed?
I can't imagine Iggy and Rae and David Orchard giving Dion another term if he doesn't win government.
Libs should have followed Belinda's advice on one member one vote.
Wilson,
Such a motion wouldn't tie the oppositions hands at all. There would be nothing stopping them from voting for support of the fixed date law, and introducing a confidence vote the next day and bringing the government down on the matter of their choosing.
The fixed-date law applies to the government, not the opposition. And it requires that the government still maintain the confidence of the house. Therefore, the government losing a clear confidence vote would trigger an election, that is consistent with the legislation.
What isn't consistent with the legislation, though, is Harper going to the GG now (before the HoC returns)and asking for an election. I'm of the opinion the GG will likely grant it anyway, but according to both convention and your own law, Harper should have to demonstrate he has lost the confidence of the House. And currently he can't do that.
Nothing stops the PM from going to the GG to dissolve parliament.
The 'spirit' of the law was so the governing party did not have an unfair advantage over the opposition, and use it for party gain.
The Cons and Libs are tied in the polls, have been for a year.
There is no forseeable advantage for PMSH in dissolving parliament.
PMSH could pull the plug, risking his job, without the backlash a majority government with a 20 point advantage would get.
How much backlash would there be to giving Dion something he has been screaming for, for 18 months?
When Chretien took Day's dare to call an election, Canadians thought 'what a fool Day is', no one blamed Chretien for being ruthless.
Canadians prefer meanies to nice guys.
Immediately after Goodale had the Senate fast track the bill, it was pointed out many times that the PM could still dissolve parliament.
If the Opps voted no to the confidence motion, we have an election, brought on by the Opps relieving PMSH of the fixed election law.
If the Opps vote yes, election is delayed, until the Opps relieve PMSH of the fixed election law.
Either way, PMSH makes Dion take the initiative, fish or cut bait.
Mr.Jedras
I think you know this that under our Constitution it's the GG that can call for an election. Mr.Harper
doesn't have to demonstrate he has lost the confidence of the House.
There has been a precedent setting when Jean Chrétien asked for an election after only about 2 1/2 years into is mandate. Mr. Jean Chrétien had a lesser of a reason to go into an election since he already had a huge majority. The reason that Mr.Jean Chrétien gave at the time was that Mr.Stockwell Day dared him to call one.
It is totally different with Mr.Harper since the opposition parties have been threatening to bring down the government for months now.
Mr.Murphy:
To answer your question can Mr.Dion survive another Conservative government? In short to that is "NO"!
Sorry Mr.Murphy I meant to say another Conservative minority. LOL
Um, try 3 1/2 years.
June 2, 1997 and November 27, 2000.
Calling that early election was arguably the greatest favour ever done to the Conservatives in Canadian history, as it enabled them to chuck Stockwell Day.
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