Thursday, September 04, 2008

If These Numbers Hold Up, Dion Should Keep His Job

From democraticSPACE:

National (24 Aug - 31 Aug, +/- 1.4%)

Conservative — 34.3% (125 seats)
Liberal — 31.3% (112 seats)
NDP — 16.6% (26 seats)
Green — 8.6% (0 seats)
Bloc — 8.2% (43 seats)
Other — 1.0% (2 seats)


...based on a nine seat pick-up and the fact that a long, expensive leadership race would leave the Liberal Party broke, and Harper with a free hand, for at least another year.

Several cmmenters note that DS has Bill Casey winning in Nova Scotia. Here's a little update on his situation from today's CH.

16 comments:

Jason Hickman said...

I'm assuming one of the "others" is the current Indep MP in Quebec (Andre Authur, I think his name is). Any idea who the other one is? Bill Casey?

bigcitylib said...

Others get a seat in Quebec and "Atlantic Canada", so that's gotta be Casey.

Reality Bites said...

Anyone know who the CPC, Liberals and NDP are putting up against Casey? I hope the Liberals aren't putting up much more than a token fight.

As for Casey himself, if the election results nationally are as tight as DemocraticSpace is predicting right now, are we starting a pool on how big a bribe Harper will offer him to rejoin the caucus?

(I am not in any way hinting that Casey would accept such a bribe. I AM stating flat out that Harper would offer one.)

Reality Bites said...

Noteworthy: DS predicts the NDP will lose their Quebec seat. I concur.

bigcitylib said...

RB,

I linked to a story from CH today in the main post. Looks like the Tories will appoint someone.

ALW said...

There is no way in hell Dion will keep his job unless he becomes Prime Minister. Zero.

A leadership race doesn't have to be expensive or long. It could be one member one vote, for example. Mail in ballots. Whatever. The point is, the overwhelming majority of Liberals either want Dion gone, or are merely sucking it up right now because they're team players and have no other choice. Once there's an opening to push him out, it'll come faster than you can say "priorities".

bigcitylib said...

ALW,

Libs decided at last convention to go forwarded with a delegated convention the next time out. The whole monkey show. Really stupid idea...so, no mail-in ballots.

Jermo Sapiens said...

You mean Harper could stay PM and Dion would remain Liberal leader?

Wow, as a Harper supporter, nothing could make me happier.

I wish Dion a long career as leader of the opposition.

Ti-Guy said...

The point is, the overwhelming majority of Liberals either want Dion gone, or are merely sucking it up right now because they're team players and have no other choice.

How would you know this?

Don't pull assertions straight out of your arse, Aaron. You don't have much credibility to begin with.

Wow, as a Harper supporter, nothing could make me happier.

What will make you smarter?

Just kidding. I know you're not dumb. You just say dumb things.

Jermo Sapiens said...

hmmm, if these numbers hold up, Dion is toast.

And that would be the best thing for Liberals. Much like the best thing to ever happen to conservatives was the removal of Stockwell Day. Things have looked up ever since.


Just kidding. I know you're not dumb. You just say dumb things.


thanks for the friendly tone - i appreciate that. but seriously, even if I was a Liberal, I really dont see any upside to Dion keeping his job after this. Better to hit rock bottom and climb back up, than to win just enough seats to stay on and prolong the agony.

bigcitylib said...

Actually, Jermo, not good news but still not majority territory.

Ti-Guy said...

i appreciate that. but seriously, even if I was a Liberal, I really dont see any upside to Dion keeping his job after this.

I don't see any upside to Canada if Harper ever gets a majority. What do you make of that?

Most Liberals vote Liberal and don't vote for the leader of the party, which they don't cast a ballot for anyway. There are plenty of strong figures in the Liberal caucus (and Dion is good at tackling difficult policy) and that is integral to a cabinet government, which is what Canada has, despite control-freak Harpy's insistence that it can be run differently.

Seriously, what do the Conservatives have besides Big Daddy? Helena "Titsy" Guergis? Rona "Give me a Bone-a" Ambrose? "Oh My God they killed" Jason Kenny? Pee Pee Poilièvre? Diane "Cool Ray" Finley? Bear Baird? Porky Van Loon? Dim Jim Flim Flam Flaherty? Two-Tier Tony Clement? Maurice "Stinky" Vellacott? Anonymous and Silent Tory Backbencher #34?

Jermo Sapiens said...

BCL: yeah I know majority is supposed to be achievable when you poll at around 42.

But when it comes to Dion's future, I think he at least needs a better showing to keep his job, just preventing a tory majority wont be enough.

Jermo Sapiens said...

I don't see any upside to Canada if Harper ever gets a majority. What do you make of that?

my previous comment was made under the hypothesis "if I was a Liberal". As a conservative I see a major upside to having Dion stay on.

You're a partisan Liberal and you dont want a Harper majority? I'm shocked.

And you're absolutely correct about the strength of the Liberal brand. It is after all the most successful political party of the free world. So far Dion has simply failed to capitalize on that.

Ti-Guy said...

Look, Conservative popularity among voters has been stagnant for two years. Worry about Big Daddy's failure to capitalise on, well...everything...before thinking Liberals can benefit from advice, which relies mostly on fatuous attacks on Dion's personality anyway.

bigcitylib said...

Jermy:

"...my previous comment was made under the hypothesis "if I was a Liberal". As a conservative I see a major upside to having Dion stay on."

Ontario Tories might have thought this about Dalton McGuinty.