Coalition Math

As whomped up by some guy on the Blogging Tories forum and not checked by me. But in line with other estimates I've re the performance of a merged NDP/Liberal political entity. I've bolded the caveats.

Using Elections Data from the last elections and my rudimentary Excel skills, it seems like even a merged Liberal/NDP entity, running a single slate of candidates, cannot get to a majority, although a Liberal+NDP+Green combination potentially could.

The usual caveats apply, namely a 1:1 transfer of votes from the legacy parties to the merged party and no changes in voter turnout.

HoC seat distribution as of June 2010: Conservatives = 144, Liberals = 77, NDP = 36, Bloc = 48, Ind = 2, Vacant = 1.

EDAs where Liberal+NDP+Green vote >55% = 135
EDAs where Liberal+NDP vote >55% = 97

EDAs where Liberal+NDP+Green vote >50% = 166
EDAs where Liberal+NDP vote >50% = 129

Potential Liberal+NDP+Green Wins = 62
Potential Liberal+NDP Wins = 39

Drop the first caveat, and the merged entity performs even worse. Who knows how much of the Green Party vote would swing Tory?