Steve, whose calls for an immediate election have become strident and feverish lately, recovers nicely with this post re the Cadman controversy:
Why I hesitate, in adopting Turner's "pull the plug" advice over Cadman, it is just too opportunistic to be credible. Last week, Liberals spent their entire time trying to develop clever ways to avoid an election. This scandal breaks, and then suddenly, Liberals have found a solid spine, it's time to go. The chronology is too cute for words, and I doubt Canadian voters would be overly impressed with the obvious motivations. No, the Liberals have made their bed, the opportunity has passed, the optics of a reversal are dreadful.
Exactly. The Libs should not lean on this as the sole trigger of an election call.
Now, what if the NDP is working on a non-confidence motion in regards to the scandal? Then I would say the Libs should NOT support it on the grounds that it is premature, because:
1) It is premature. Let the RCMP do their job.
2) It is in the Libs strategic interest to have this hanging over the government as Parliament progresses. Whatever the final outcome of any investigation (guilty/not guilty) the very process will generate any number of Tory-negative media stories. For example, what will Dona Cadman do? Can she still run Conservative? What will the CPoC do with Dona Cadman? Can they afford to keep her now that she's accused the Party of bribery? It is hard to see an end to this that makes Harper and co. exit looking good.
Now, a few have speculated that it might be possible to use the Canadian Wheat Board Issue as a cover for going into an election over the Cadman Affair. That might work. But if this scandal still has legs in April, when the CWB legislation is due to arrive, then it is unlikely that the government will make it a matter of confidence in the first place.
The Liberal Party could then claim credit for sinking the measure and quietly go about the task of getting their shit together for the fall. That would be the best result