Today's Ekos Poll, as reported in several stories from The Star, has bad news for the Tories, good news for Bob Rae, and mixed news for Michael Ignatieff.
Harper's Tories are stuck nationally at 36% of the vote, with the Libs up a few points to 31.7%. Following these two, the New Democrats are at 16.2 per cent nationally, the Bloc Québécois at 9.9% , and the Green Party at 6.2%.
The regional breakdowns are more discouraging for the CPC, according to The Star:
In Quebec, the bottom is falling out from under Harper. His party has now dropped to third place, well behind the Bloc Québécois (44 per cent) and four points behind the Liberals (21 per cent).
With their support at 17 per cent, the Tories would be hard-pressed to get their 10 Quebec MPs re-elected, let alone win new seats. Their current standing is a full eight points below their score in the last election.
In fact, the writer speculates that the Tories might have given up on Quebec, and are instead looking to fortify their Western base. In any case, the news is no better in Ontario, where the Liberals continue on top with 40.6% support compared with 36%for the Conservatives and 16.7% for the NDP. The Green Party has 6.8%
On the Lib Leadership front, Rae, the former Ontario premier, is the choice of 26% of the public, compared with 21% for Ignatieff. On the other hand, when asked which leadership hopeful would have the best chance of winning the next federal election for the Liberals, 30% picked Ignatieff and only 26% picked Rae.
Probably this last set of results is most discouraging for Dion, for only 9% picked him as the best choice for Liberal Leader (Kennedy even beat him out with 10%). However, the public doesn't vote on these issues, only party members. And among them, I suspect the pendulum is beginning to swing towards Dion as the best "stop Iggy" candidate.