Harper's Tories are stuck nationally at 36% of the vote, with the Libs up a few points to 31.7%. Following these two, the New Democrats are at 16.2 per cent nationally, the Bloc Québécois at 9.9% , and the Green Party at 6.2%.
The regional breakdowns are more discouraging for the CPC, according to The Star:
In Quebec, the bottom is falling out from under Harper. His party has now dropped to third place, well behind the Bloc Québécois (44 per cent) and four points behind the Liberals (21 per cent).
With their support at 17 per cent, the Tories would be hard-pressed to get their 10 Quebec MPs re-elected, let alone win new seats. Their current standing is a full eight points below their score in the last election.
In fact, the writer speculates that the Tories might have given up on Quebec, and are instead looking to fortify their Western base. In any case, the news is no better in Ontario, where the Liberals continue on top with 40.6% support compared with 36%for the Conservatives and 16.7% for the NDP. The Green Party has 6.8%
On the Lib Leadership front, Rae, the former Ontario premier, is the choice of 26% of the public, compared with 21% for Ignatieff. On the other hand, when asked which leadership hopeful would have the best chance of winning the next federal election for the Liberals, 30% picked Ignatieff and only 26% picked Rae.
Probably this last set of results is most discouraging for Dion, for only 9% picked him as the best choice for Liberal Leader (Kennedy even beat him out with 10%). However, the public doesn't vote on these issues, only party members. And among them, I suspect the pendulum is beginning to swing towards Dion as the best "stop Iggy" candidate.
2 comments:
What a ridiculous poll. Of course Rae is leading Ignatieff among all Canadians - Conservatives overwhelmingly prefer Rae as the next Liberal leader because they know it will guarantee them a majority.
The important statistic is winnability, and Ignatieff leads on that one.
How does a single poll show Rae is "rising"? Wouldn't you need to compare it to prior similar polls? If memory serves, Rae has been up around the same spot all along and EKOS had Iggy at about 13% over the summer or in the spring.
To me that reflects Rae's name recognition (Dryden does well in these polls too) and growing name recognition for Iggy more than acceptance.
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