Sunday, October 01, 2006

Iggy's Campaign Appears Doomed

Iggy's team has been running a pure Momentum Campaign.

He is the New Trudeau, they say, though his speaking style often seems flat. He is drop-dead gorgeous, they say, although in public he often seems a bit squinty and there are rumors aswirl with respect to the state of his personal hygiene. He is leading the Liberals to a policy Nirvana, they say, although his policies as stated often seem insane (Whoopi! Let's go into Iraq!), disastrous (Whoopi! let's reopen the Constitutional debate!), or tortured (his position on Torture). But most importantly, they say, he is going to WIN, so you (lowly Liberal rank-&-filers) might as well support him. You WILL be assimilated, and the only question is, when you are, will you be sitting next to Iggy on his Throne, or next to the John?

But the problem with a Momentum campaign is, you occasionally need to demonstrate evidence of Momentum. In this case, this demonstration will come in the form of first ballot support at the December Convention, as this is pre-figured by this weekend's "super weekend" delegate selection count. And the bar for Iggy has been set: Party insiders have estimated that Ignatieff will need at least 35 per cent on the first ballot to avoid being overtaken.

However, with the Liberal Party Super Weekend Delegate Election Results Ticker showing over half of the meetings having reported, it is clear that Iggy (with 30.8% of the delegates so far elected) will come up a few points short of the glorious victory he needs to keep his Juggernaut on the rails.

And so here is my prediction for December. After the first ballot is over and Iggy is stuck with his 30%, it will seem as though he has been swarmed by a gang of rabid midgets. His long, slight frame will disappear into a crowd of black suits, and eventually Joe Volpe will appear, brandishing his head on a stick.

Meanwhile, after three, or four, or five rounds of balloting...someone will emerge as our next Liberal Leader.

And the nation shall be saved.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Now there you go, reinforcing anti-Italian stereotypes again. Volpe as the Liberals' hit man...

;o)

Steve V said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Steve V said...

onsidering all the speculation about Iggy and Rae "neck and neck", his sizeable lead should be quite comforting. He will end up with 35% when everyone is factored in, which means he doesn't need a heck of alot to growth- around 20% of the remaining delegates, which isn't exactly massive. Iggy is by no means "doomed" today. Nice try though :)

Ted Betts said...

Ah, BCL. Over at Cerberus, I have "Your Friday Smile from Cerberus" and now you bring us the "Sunday joke post from BCL".

It looks clear that Iggy will have a minimum of 30% after the weekend. Add ex-officios and that is easily 35%. No leader has ever lost a leadership convention being ahead by as much as Iggy is. With 35% he only needs to pick up 1 of every 5 delegates not currently supporting him. It's not all done yet, but it's pretty close.

BTW, can you point to one single instance of the Ignatieff campaign comparing him to Trudeau??? Thought not.

Ted

Jeff said...

Actually Steve, the bulk of the Iggy and Rae neck and neck speculation was from the media and from Ignatieff supporters. Lowering expectations.

For the most part things are as expected. The big question still remains Ignatieff's growth potential; I really don't think he has enough to pull it out. But, we'll see.

Steve V said...

Bcer

I agree about the media, but afterall its all about expectations isn't it? The same media will now shape the race again, except this time there is actually evidence to support the thesis.

Gregory D. Morrow said...

Ted -- it looks like Ignatieff is doing better than expected, but it comes at the expense of his best 2nd ballot potential, Dryden and Brison. The Rae/Dion/Kennedy vote is running 3% higher than I projected, and 53% overall. I certainly wouldn't say that Ignatieff's campaign is doomed. But he will have to count on attrition from the Rae/Dion/Kennedy crowd to win.

Winnipeg Liberal said...

I wouldn't expect supporters of other candidates to concede defeat, but given that Calgary Grit, DemocraticSpace and others were all projecting Ignatieff to be at 25-26% and that the media - aided and abetted by Rae's campaign - has been claiming Ignatieff and Rae were neck and neck, it's laughable to suggest Ignatieff hasn't exceeded everybody's expectations.

I notice that people keep ratcheting up the level of support that Ignatieff needs to win. Earlier this week it was 30%, now it's up to 35%, and I'm sure if Ignatieff holds his ground or advances, it'll get up to 40%.

Barring a reversal today, Ignatieff will probably take 35% on the first ballot, and then he only needs 1 in 4 delegates from the other candidates to get to 50%.

Compare that to Rae or Dion. If they each have 20% on first ballot and Iggy has 35%, one would have to grow by 30% to beat Iggy. But between Iggy's base of 35 and their own 20, that only leaves 45% of delegates available, meaning they would have to get 2 out of 3. And that means one of Dion or Rae would have to convince the other to drop out - does anyone think one of those two could swallow their ambition and endorse the other just to defeat Ignatieff?

Ti-Guy said...

and there are rumors aswirl with respect to the state of his personal hygiene.

*tsk*...What a tacky remark. Undoubtedly true though. I mean, have you ever had a professor who's ever known that those tweed jackets they wear all the time need dry-cleaning every once in a while? And Iggy's hair? I can smell the sebum from here.

Bleh.