Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives, bolstered by a surge in support in Quebec, have edged upward in popular opinion, but they remain shy of the magic numbers they need to form a majority government, a new poll shows.
The Tories are now at 38 per cent nationally, six points ahead of the second-place Liberals, who garnered 32 per cent support, says the poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid for CanWest News Service and Global Television.
While you might say that there's good news for Harper in Quebec--the Tories are up ten on the Libs after throwing billions in free candy at the province--for the most part the trend line in Ipsos polls has been gradually downward and away from majority territory. Their post budget bounce is definitely on the fade.
And there's not particularly good news for the Green Party, which has settled back into the below ten per cent region (eight, to be precise). This explains as much as anything the rationale for the Dion-May non-compete agreement, at least from the Green perspective: give your leader a better shot at her seat and, hopefully, a place in the debates rather than clock in at ten per cent in riding after riding and come up with doodly.
But its all good news for us, since it means political bloggers can get out and look at the Sun this Spring, maybe color up those pale, flabby white hides, instead of huddling furtively over our PCs and over interpreting every twitch of the body politic.
But wait...an election in PEI! This could change EVERYTHING!!! I must stay up until midnight for the results, and will post my analysis by three am!!!
8 comments:
Can you give us a breakdown on the numbers in Ontario and Quebec? I'm not a subscriber and IR is not showing the numbers either.
Thanks
BCL — I saw the following numbers posted in the comments at Garth Turner's blog, but they weren't referenced as to the source. Clearly, they weren't just made up, but it would be nice to know which polling firm they're from. Still, they may be germane to your point.
Based on what you know and have seen about Stephen Harper and the Conservative government’s record so far, would you be comfortable, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or uncomfortable with the Stephen Harper-led Conservatives potentially winning the next election and forming a majority government? (Parentheses denote change from February 2007)
National (N=1,000)
Comfortable 33% (-1)
Somewhat comfortable 21% (+2)
Somewhat uncomfortable 15% (0)
Uncomfortable 27% (-2)
Unsure 4% (0)
Quebec (N=251)
Comfortable 28% (-5)
Somewhat comfortable 33% (+17)
Somewhat uncomfortable 22% (+1)
Uncomfortable 18% (-13)
Unsure 0% (0)
As you may know, there is a chance that Prime Minister Stephen Harper may call an election. Do you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or oppose calling a federal election at this time.
Support 27%
Somewhat support 18%
Somewhat oppose 13%
Oppose 36%
Unsure 6%
Why do you have that opinion? [unprompted]
Support an Election (N=447)
We may get a new government/change 15%
Because he/Harper thinks he can win 14%
It’s democracy/because he can/elections are good 10%
Need a majority government 7%
Oppose an Election (N=490)
Election not needed/just had one/it’s opportunistic 38%
Elections are expensive/cost a lot of money 24%
It won’t make a difference/won’t be any change 5%
The parties should just get down to work 5% .
Aql,
Quebec is 31 Tory, 30 Bloc, 21 Lib.
Ontario is 40 Lib and 37 Tory.
Sorry, the origonal story I linked to disappeared behind a firewall.
RT,
I think that's from SES about two or three weeks ago.
It's "Ipsos Reid" for CanWest. I saw it on the National Newswatch - National Post.
Thanks BCL.
No prob. I've linked to the reuters version.
Actually, RT,those "comfort" numbers are from an SES poll done a couple of days ago. The results just haven't changed much from last month.
Maybe the Liberals can make more deals where they won't run a candidate in other ridings, in exchange for the same courtesy elsewhere. Kind of like the non-aggression pacts which proved so effective 65 years ago.
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