Friday, April 11, 2008

Hit Me, I'm Liberal

And I can absorb more blows than Rocky. Here's the Natty Post's lament for the LPoC. Here's the people of Canada ignoring them.

Jeez! If the party abstains for another couple of months, they'll be in Majority territory. Hopefully, polls like this will help the Que. wing get past Iggy and get ready to fight.

More on the NANOS Poll from James Curran.

20 comments:

Reality Bites said...

Here's the regional breakdown. http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S08-T290.pdf

Seems like good news for the Liberals. Still tied in Quebec, new massive leads in Ontario and Atlantic (~50-30). Those are the kind of numbers that will put Jim Flaherty in the dole queue.

BQ and Greens both down 2 points. No breakdown for the west by province, as usual, making it worthless. CPC up sharply there though, 40 to 51. LPC steady going from 29 to 28. NDP and Greens tanking, losing 5 and 4 points respectively.

wilson said...

Good news for the Libs IF the increases are not in ridings they already hold.
Same for Cons.

Also good news for the Cons,
gain 5 to Libs 3 nationally,
gain 1 (not lose) in Ontario,
equal gain to Libs in Atlantic Canada,
Dippers and Greens give votes to Cons in the West and Libs in Ontario.
Curious that uncommitted went up 6in both Atlantic and Quebec regions.

Scott Tribe said...

Good news is that the Liberals now hold 50%+ popular support in Ontario and the Maritimes, and are level with the Cons. i nQuebec.

That would be enough to evict the Cons. from power if the numbers held to a general election call.

Ti-Guy said...

Ah, you know it's serious when Wilsie-the-paid-shill reappears.

I did an informal poll among people I know who don't follow politics all that much. They seem to think the Harper government can't work with anyone else.

Is that good for them? I doubt it.

That would be enough to evict the Cons. from power if the numbers held to a general election call.

If the Conservatives believe this, let's watch and see what they try to pull. Could be fun.

Dante said...

Any Liberal rise at this point...if true is soft support. There is nothing that the Liberals are currently doing that would change its numbers for the better.

You're dreaming if you think that the Liberals can get any kind of traction in an election.

Scott Tribe said...

Nice attempt at spin Dante. I know its hard to do so with this type of poll.. so bravo on you for trying.

Dante said...

Scott. I do not nor have ever belonged to the Conservative nor the Progressive Conservative parties. I have no interest in spinning. It is just my view.

Ti-Guy said...

Scott, it's not even spin. It's just the same old bravado from conservative trolls like Dante.

Man, I've got to avoid poll posts. They make the baseless assertions Conservatives usually make even more migraine-inducing.

Dante said...

You're calling me a troll Ti-Guy. 90% of your posts are ad-hominem attacks.

Oh and please don't disregard this larger poll when you decide that my assertions are baseless:
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/413627

Get a clue.

James Curran said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
James Curran said...

Here's a clue Dante. When you reach 50% support...it ain't soft. It's a majority. That's what it is.

Ti-Guy said...

You're calling me a troll Ti-Guy. 90% of your posts are ad-hominem attacks.

90%? When it comes to the Conservative trolls, I thought it was 100%. I must be slacking off.

Look up the word "troll" Dante and the next time you see me over at Stephen Taylor's blog, announcing that "The Conservatives are goin' down, baby! Boo Yah!" then you can call me a troll.

biff said...

We know the poll is off, way off.

Here's one reason:

Recent Quebec polls which target just that province, which have a high sample relative to the population, are showing the opposite there.

I could give more reasons, but I suspect I'd be called a "liar" (amongst other slurs).

Carry on.

Dante said...

---Look up the word "troll" Dante and the next time you see me over at Stephen Taylor's blog, announcing that "The Conservatives are goin' down, baby! Boo Yah!" then you can call me a troll.---


I didn't claim a conservative majority was at hand though I have reason to believe it may be now that you bring it up. I was merely staying within the topic of the post and opining that any gains the Grits see at this point are soft.

James...I don't have any idea what you are talking about. You might have said the sun is hot and it would mean the same thing to me.

James Curran said...

Biff. Nik Nanos is THE most respected pollster in Canada...even by other pollsters. So, yep, you might get called a Liar.

James Curran said...

DAnte said:

"You're calling me a troll Ti-Guy. 90% of your posts are ad-hominem attacks.

Oh and please don't disregard this larger poll when you decide that my assertions are baseless:
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/413627

Get a clue"

So I gave you a clue. See?

Ti-Guy said...

I could give more reasons, but I suspect I'd be called a "liar" (amongst other slurs).

Like innumerate, perhaps?

biff said...

James,

I know you really want to believe Dion's doing just fine in Quebec.

But:

- More accurate polling says otherwise in Que. Its not reputation, just plain statistics - higher sample polls are more accurate, conversely, predicting an entire province the size of Quebec, with a sample of a couple or so hundred, is unwise, particularly at the riding level. You end up predicting a riding with a sample of a handful.

- there are no objective factors to support Dion doing fine in Quebec, just the opposite in fact.

- Outremont. It wasn't a poll, it was real.

Again, I have several other factors, but I'll just stick with the ones that you all can verify yourselves.

Cheers

James Curran said...

Biff Said:

"Outremont. It wasn't a poll, it was real."

Having been in Outremont, I can tell you firsthand that Outremont was sabbotage. Complete and utter. I can also tell you that the seat will return to the Liberals in a general election, given the right candidate.

That is a fact.

biff said...

Yes, and the Sask. seat and Quadra,

all three, "isolated" incidents.

There's a reason the Liberals are avoiding an election like the plague.

Because their internals are showing precisely what happened in the above three ridings - everywhere but downtown Toronto, and a few seats in Atlantic.

That means there's about a 20 point drop in the spread from the last election. Close seats will go to the CPC, so will not-so-close seats.

And, like Quadra, the safest of safe seats for the Liberals will be nail biters.