Friday, April 04, 2008

Patience, Grasshopper!

...is what I've been telling Libloggers for the past month or two now (like the old guy from Kung Fu). The economy is going South, and Tory prospects will travel with it. Wait, I've been saying, for the crap numbers to arrive! Well, they started arriving today:

OTTAWA–Canada’s red hot labour market caught a chill from U.S. recessionary winds in March as the spreading economic gloom sliced 47,000 full-time jobs from the payrolls in manufacturing-heavy Ontario and Quebec.

You used to hear it argued that elections were nothing more than referendums on the state of the business cycle. By that logic, the next step is to make the Tories own this slowdown/downturn/recession/economic apocalypse. They know it too! What d'you think is behind all the McGuinty bashing lately? They're trying to hand him the hot potato!

10 comments:

Robert McClelland said...

The economy is going South

I wouldn't bank on it going south enough to cause trouble for the Conservatives.

Fred said...

Damn that McGuinty . . he's killing the golden goose of Canada's economy.

Jérôme said...

interesting post in that you suggest the slowdown of the economy is good news.

everybody knows that the cure for a slowing economy is having Dion as PM to implement Kyoto.

other than that you're likely correct about the flaherty/mcguinty thing.

Steve V said...

What robert said.

So, as Liberals were are reduced to the equivalent of ambulance chasers? I'm sure Canadians will run to us in droves ;)

Sorry BCL, I see this as more wishful thinking, with a myriad of unknowns, in terms of scope and ultimate blame, to be a serious gameplan moving forward. I'd rather deal with what we know, namely the Immigration reforms, which are already being framed as the Liberals ultimate test.

Ti-Guy said...

Steve, pull yourself together, man. We want the Liberals to win an election and return to reasonably coherent governance. After which point, Liberals like you and me can bitch vociferously about how badly the Liberals are failing.

Do I still live in Canada, or what?

bigcitylib said...

Robert, I would bank on it. You Dippers will need some ideas other than aspiring to official opposition status.

Steve, Steve, Steve. What did I tell you a couple of days ago? We'll have this conversation again in a month, and eventually you will concede. Its all down hill from here, economically.

At the Prog Blogs thing this summer, you will have to dance for me.

Jerome, bad times are always good for the opposition party. If John Tory had any brains, he would tell Flaherty to shut up and start laying on the same line himself.

You comment on political blogs and you don't know all this?

Steve V said...

"What did I tell you a couple of days ago?"

You mean when the GDP rose unexpectedly and retail sales "amazed" the analysts?


One thing to consider, and history has borne this out, the markets tend to be six months ahead of the curve on economic news. Despite some sketchy economic data, the American markets were fairly strong, Canadian two (up all 5 days). Generally, this is seen a looking to the future, a belief that we are at bottom now.

All I'm saying, we are in the unknown on the economy, to say this will happen, based on that, isn't a strategy based on fact or knowledge, just wishful thinking, or friendly projections. No offence, but it's a fool's game to put your faith in a theoretical, much better to fight on solid ground, like immigration for example. That's a no brainer for Liberals.

ti-guy

What we are doing right now, will ultimately guarantee that we lose the election. We are laying the foundation for failure, despite the polls, we are cementing the negatives and if we continue, we will lose. It's pretty simple actually.

Robert McClelland said...

Robert, I would bank on it.

Based on what, one jobs report? Do you even know how easy it is to game these types of reports?

The fact is that the fundamentals of the economy haven't begun to slid so there's no rational reason to pin your hopes on this as an issue.

You Dippers will need some ideas other than aspiring to official opposition status.

I don't know what this means. I'm not aspiring to anything let alone official opposition status so I fail to see how I will need some ideas.

Ti-Guy said...

What we are doing right now, will ultimately guarantee that we lose the election. We are laying the foundation for failure, despite the polls, we are cementing the negatives and if we continue, we will lose. It's pretty simple actually.

Cheer up.

magus1290 said...

I wouldn't be one to jump the gun too quickly.. if you look at overall economic data you see that Canada actually gained jobs in March, even with the US slumping and the manufacturing job losses!

Jobless figures a tale of two economies:U.S. sheds 80,000 jobs, Canadian market grows

Alia McMullen, Financial Post
Published: Saturday, April 05, 2008

"In comparison, the Canadian jobs market is holding up well, although the March data was weaker than previous reports. Employment rose by 15,000 in March. That compared to gain of 43,300 jobs in February."