If an election were held today, the poll indicates the Conservatives would win about 36% of the popular vote, with the Liberals close behind at 33%, the New Democrats with 16%, the Bloc Quebecois 10%, and the Green Party 6%.
Also, bad news for Elizabeth May's Green Party:
Finally, any signs of "Green-mania" sweeping the electoral landscape have all but disappeared as support for Elizabeth May's party is back to roughly the level that won no seats in the last election.
I imagine this is a case of voters frightened of a Tory majority swinging back to the more traditional parties. Interesting also are head pollster Nik Nanos explanation of the Libs third-place Quebec result:
However, the federal budget, Quebec provincial election results and the new advertising scandal arrest has put downward pressure on Liberal support in Quebec. The Liberals have dropped nine points in Quebec in the past 60 days. Research conducted by SES has shown that in the past there is a direct relationship between federal Liberal support in Quebec and any new revelations regarding the sponsorship scandal. It is too early to tell whether the Liberal drop is short term or not.
There's also a link to a further break-down of the poll numbers on Nik's blog, but my version of adobe seems unable to open it.
25 comments:
II have Adobe 7 and it won't open. What a mess in Quebec. We have to do something!
It's been pretty clear for a while now that the political situation has not changed for anyone in Canada with the exception of Quebec. But, for the Conservatives, that's OK, because the quest for the Holy Grail majority is an honourable one, as it will bring about [insert agenda here].
I think the Harper party's done all it can. Let's keep them in power long enough to become demonstrably moribund...and maybe get a stinkiy little sex scandal out of the whole, dreary spectacle.
Harper is up in Quebec, up in Ontario and the same in the West and East. Sounds pretty good to me. And take away the Liberal numbers in Toronto and Vancouver - where the Libs typically do much better the Cons - and that means that the Cons 40 in Ontario is much better than the Libs 41. That could easily switch 10 seats right there.
It is not a majority for Harper, but 135 to 145 seats is probably with these numbers.
Hi bigcitylib, you made an assumption about the drop for voting preference for the Greens. You suggested that the public is afraid of the cons thus moving to the more traditonal parties.
I wonder, though, if this move is occuring because May choice to
a) run in a riding with no hope of winning, basically telling voters that she isn't serious about getting a seat in a riding where last time out, the Green candidate got 124 votes total; and
b) telling the public that Greens are interesting in teaming up with the libs on a riding to riding base, and pissing off their base of support.
Just wondering if that also has to do with the arrest in movement.
Jan,
Yeah I thought of that stuff to. As someone who wants the Greens to do well (and might conceivably vote for them), those two things bothered me, esp. the last because it seems May will short-change the party for possible federal funding if she doesn't run a full slate.
However, I wonder if that isn't too "inside baseball" for your typical voter?
anon how can the Cons be up in Quebec Ontario west and east but still be stuck at 36% percent aka ground zero. There seems to be something wrong with your math. This is also with much more coverage for the PM with the budget and daily affairs etc. In an election Dion gets the same air time. Whenever he does our numbers go up unlike Harper.
Bring it on. We'd win with these numbers as they stand now regardless of ads by conservatives and all the air time in the world. At the end of the day, Quebec city will vote for their native son not some lying putz from Ontario pretending to be from Alberta.
Dion will win Quebec.
SB,
There DOES seem something weird about the national numbers vs. the regional breakdowns given in the article and on Nanos blog. Which is why it would be nice to be able to open the .pdf showing more detailed info.
Greg Weston probably screwed up (won't be the first time) in the regional breakouts which is why Nanos is probably waiting to post his PDF.
SB - here are the number from Nik's blog:
East -
Cons - 28% on Feb. 8, 28% on Apr 5
Libs - 45% on Feb. 8, 40% on Apr 5
Quebec -
Cons - 20% on Feb. 8, 28% on Apr 5
Libs - 27% on Feb. 8, 18% on Apr 5
Ontario -
Cons - 36% on Feb. 8, 40% on Apr 5
Libs - 38% on Feb. 8, 41% on Apr 5
West -
Cons - 41% on Feb. 8, 41% on Apr 5
Libs - 30% on Feb. 8, 35% on Apr 5
So there is nothing worn with my math, maybe there is with Nik's, but not mine.
So again, the same out east and out west, and up in Ontario and Quebec .
Also, Dion is in trouble in Quebec, outside of Montreal. Quebec is changing, and the Liberal view of Federalism is in trouble there, especially with francophones.
There is no way the Liberals can win with these numbers (and granted, a campaign can change the numbers), but there is also very little chance the Conservatives can get a majority with these numbers. However, 135-145 seats is an accurate guesstimate with these numbers.
All that can change with a scandal. Remember, when the kids are quiet in the kitchen, you know they're up to something...
What's the RCMP up to these days?
Jan, why do you spread disinformation re the Greens? You say - "...a riding where last time out, the Green candidate got 124 votes total." In reality, the figure was 671 - 5 times what yer sayin'. The Marxist-Leninists got 124. 671 is bad enough. Why the 500% exaggeration?
Alexis MacDonald, the popular NDP candidate who a came close second to MacKay in 2006 has declared she is not running next time. MacKay is vulnerable and not entirely unbeatable, as you contend. Cabinet ministers are often at a disadvantage in their local areas because their cabinet duties take them away from local service. Ask Bob Speller.
I suspect the idea of "teaming up with the libs on a riding to riding' basis was a trial balloon. There has been absolutely no official GPC comment or policy announcements on this idea. I do agree that such a scheme would alienate some GPC members.
The idea to concentrate on winnable ridings would not necessarily rob the GPC of teh $1.75 in Elections Canada funding. While some ridings would get zero GPC votes, those where additional campaigning is carried out would get more votes. In the London by-election, the GPC got more votes than in 5 typical ridings.
I agree that fear of a Harper majority will send some GPC supporters to the LPC or NDP in close races. Post-election, this may make the need for electoral reform even more obvious to even more voters. The same fear may also get some NDP and LPC voters to strategically jump on a contender's bandwagon.
If, as it looks quite possible, the election is called over the CAA and the environment, in general, the LPC does not have any real advantage over the CPoC in the eyes of small-g green voters. The 2 big parties have been largely successful in discrediting one another on the green file. An election campaign centred on green issues will steer voters into the GPC camp.
The GPC doesn't have the cash that the Cons and Grits have. Unlike the LPC and CPoC, each of whom receive over $30 million a year from the public purse, the GPC cannot afford to spend precious campaign funds on TV ads prior to a writ being dropped. When the election is called, they will start campaigning in earnest and the pre-emptive CPoC, LPC and NDP television ads will be less relavent.
JimBobby
It's worth noting that the regionals put the NDP at 13% in Quebec, which strikes me as an outlier resulting from the small sample size in the province.
A more realistic set of numbers would likely put the NDP at 8% and tie the Liberals and the Conservatives around 24%, with their strength coming from different parts of the province, at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois.
My face is red. The LPC and CPoC each get about $10 million a year from Elections Canada and not $30 mil like I thought.
The GPC gets a little under $1 million a year.
JB
Well, to spend $300 million to get another minority would be just plain stupid and a misuse of taxpayers' dollars.
Will Harper be so glib with "our" money?
"Will Harper be so glib with 'our' money?"
If it can be made to look as if the opposition forced an election, the answer's yes.
But, presumably, Harper would not engineer an election unless he's confident of a majority outcome.
I figger spendin' $300 mil on elections every year an' a haff is a waste, fer sure. Frequent elections only delay any real action an' delays ain't what we need in the ol' Mother Earth department, right now.
JB
Jimbobby,
That's right. If the oppo parties can rewrite legislation and the government is too scared to fall over these revised bills, then the situation we have now is not a bad one.
In the last 2 election that Harper fought he was able to get his poll numbers to rise substantially during the election and the election result numbers were much higher then what his poll numbers before the either election began. Since Paul Martin was a much better speaker and leader then Stephanie (it’s not fair) Dion could ever hope to be I think that Harper has a very good chance of not only securing a majority in the next election but to replace the liberals as Canada’s natural governing party.
Also as the auditor general now get to look at the books of the Gun Registry and other Liberal money laundering programs we can look forward to many more years of criminal charges coming out against liberal party members and ex-members. It will be the extant of liberal corruption more then anything that Harper does that will ultimately destroy the Liberal brand name for good.
Deno
In the last 2 election that Harper fought he was able to get his poll numbers to rise substantially during the election...
Especially the last one, when Harper got the RCMP to engineer a smear of the Finance Ministry over the income trust leak.
I wonder what he'll try the next time? Kidnappings? Death threats?
...hanging chads?
"Especially the last one, when Harper got the RCMP to engineer a smear of the Finance Ministry over the income trust leak"
Tri-fool, I know you are not very bright but even I believe that you know full well that it was J.C. who cut the knees from Paul Martin and not Harper.
Also, if you look at the poll number before X-mas Harper numbers were already rising before J.C. did his dirty deed. Admit it guys Harper is a good Campaigner and Stephanie (it’s not fair) Dion is not.
You know liberal corruption runs deep when one of your own uses his own corrupt ways (calling the RCMP) to bash a fellow liberal.
Deno
"That's right. If the oppo parties can rewrite legislation and the government is too scared to fall over these revised bills, then the situation we have now is not a bad one."
You got it all wrong BCL. The Tory little show last week to show off their war room and media center was a warning to the opp. Parties and to the media. To the opp parties the warning was pass all our legislation or we are going to have another election where the Tories are flush with cash and is ready to beat the hell out of you in the next election.
To the media, especially the PPG, the warning is this, treat the Tory party fairly in you news reports or we will simply bypass you and go straight to the people. I think a lot of editors and news producers will wonder why they are paying these PPG so much money when they cannot get access to the reigning Prime Minister and the governing party.
Harper holds all the cards right now. He will push the Tory agenda through parliament and dare the opposition parties to pass his legislation or take the Tories down. If the opposition parties blink Harper gets to pass anything he wants, if the opposition stand their ground they will have to take down the government and they get the blame for another $300,000,000 election which Harper has a great chance of wining his majority.
Heads Harper wins, Tail Harper wins.
It must be very difficult today to be a supported of the most corrupt party in Canadian history and watch as Harper with a minority government still gets to govern as if he has a majority.
BTW BCL, these are just my opinions I have to more access to the Tory Party then you have and I’m sure that I have a lot less since I am not even a party member. Also, if I have a right of centre choice in the next election that is not the Conservative Party I will vote for that party and not the Tories.
Deno
Deknob: It will be the "extant" of KKKonservative corruption more "then" anything that anyone else does that will ultimately destroy the KKKonservative brand name for good.
...how's that GED coming, by the way?
deno:
mushroom said:
If you go back further in recent electoral history (about 50 years) you will note that the sitting government always loses support during the election to the benefit of the Official Opposition.
We saw this thoughout the Chretien/Martin era and it finally culminated in the Liberals loss. You also saw it with Mike Harris, Gord Campbell and Jean Charest. All started out with higher polling numbers at the beginning of their second elections than they finally received on election day.
The reason is simple. There is an inexorable tendency for the electorate to become tired of a sitting government and to want change. This next election will be no different.
Looking at history the sitting government can expect at least a 2 point drop in support between the time the writ is dropped and election day. It could be more depending on the mood of the electorate and the election campaign.
So, Stephen Harper may want to think twice before calling an election when he is statistically tied with the Liberals.
"So, Stephen Harper may want to think twice before calling an election when he is statistically tied with the Liberals."
I don't think so. Once the public gets a good look a Stephanie (it's not fair) Dion and more liberals are charged with corruption they will be falling all over themselves to vote Tory.
Hell look at what a card carrying liberal like Tri-fool said yesterday "I'd rather have the Liberals steal a couple of million...." When the public finds out that liberals still want to keep stealing even more millions of taxpayer dollars then they already have Canadians will vote against the party of corruption called the Liberal Party of Canada
Deno
You know, this:
"Stephanie (it's not fair) Dion..."
is just kind of silly. How old are you anyway? Maybe you could restrict your comments to the school yard and allow the adults to talk here?
I don't think so. Once the public gets a good look a Stephanie (it's not fair) Dion and more liberals are charged with corruption they will be falling all over themselves to vote Tory.
That's why you're a knob, Deknob. Someone makes a cogent point and you screech "No, it's not. That big sissy Dion is a criminal."
Seriously; people as stupid as you shouldn't be allowed to vote. But since I'm above all, a democrat, you just remain the part of the loony fringe which a diverse society has to accept.
You are "The Sensible Person's Burden."
is just kind of silly. How old are you anyway? Maybe you could restrict your comments to the school yard and allow the adults to talk here?
Deno has indicated elsewhere that he/she has children. So, if we take that at face value, Deno is old enough to know better. Since that isn't the case, he/she should be treated like an arrested-development head case.
Of course, if he's/she's only 13, someone should tell his/her mommy and daddy that he's/she's spending too much time on the Internets, harrassing adults.
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