Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Tory Lead Shrinks To Three Points

From CTV:

OTTAWA -- A new poll suggests the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals has narrowed to three percentage points, another signal that a spring federal election may be on hold afterall.

The survey by Decima Research, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, put Tory support at 34 per cent nationally.


The Liberals polled 31 per cent nationally, while the NDP got 15 per cent, the Green party 11, and the Bloc Quebecois, seven.

Two things. One, I will try and find the other breakdowns, but here are the Quebec numbers:

The situation is especially intriguing in Quebec, where the Bloc hit a new low of 29 per cent, and the upstart Greens tracked 13 per cent.

The Liberals led the Tories 23-20 in the province, while the NDP trailed with 10 per cent support.

And these seem bizarre, quite at odds with the SES poll results published today that suggest any decline in BQ support would likely move move towards the Tories and NDP.

Secondly, the poll was taken between Thursday the 12th and Sunday the 15th of April--that is, mostly after the announcement of the Green/Liberal alliance in Nova. So while you can't attribute any Liberal upward momentum to the deal, it certainly doesn't seem to have done them any harm either. Ted, Antonio, it's not "kissy my assy" time yet, but its getting close.


Scott Tribe said...

I'll say the same thing to you as I do to them: One poll does not make a trend.. and the only poll that counts is on election day.

All this poll proves is there may be slippage in the Tories support.. and it certainly proves the electorate is very volatile right now.

bigcitylib said...

The trend does seem to be that Tory support has settled after the budget, though, no?

Anonymous said...

I seem to recall you saying you didn't put any faith in polls.

bigcitylib said...

I thought I said I didn't put any faith in Angus Reid Polls.

Gayle said...

I put my faith in the fact there will be no spring election :).

Anonymous said...

No poll erection => no spring election?

Ti-Guy said...

*sigh* I'm sad every day a Connie doesn't get to use the expression "polling in majority territory."

Connies need routine and structure; and they become most unbearable when that's denied them.

Ding dong Dion's a dud said...

How to impress the Tim Horton's voters . .

so tres elegante, so plus Parisien . . .


“If this gets out, it could mean the end of the Liberal Party of Canada,” warned a local politico, requesting anonymity.

And what, pray tell, has the Grits so up in arms? It seems that when St├ęphane Dion touched down in Winnipeg last month, he and his entourage popped by North End mega-icon Kelekis for lunch. There, Dion shocked locals and his handlers by eating Kelekis’s world-famous hot dog with — gasp! — a knife and fork.

“It conjured images of George on Seinfeld eating a Snickers bar the same way,” said another witness who, for obvious reasons, also asked not to be named. "

Ti-Guy said...

Ding dong, you're not even in the same universe as sense anymore.

Please, see a doctor.